花旗银行：2021年北美投资策略：市政观察（英文版）（11页）.pdf

1、 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT FDIC INSURED NOT CDIC INSURED NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE North America Investment Strategy: Muni Watch Year-to-date, Municipal bonds have returned 2.1%, with strong flows and improving state budget estimates (Figures 17-19). Leadership has come

2、from airports, transportation, and hospital bonds, A-rated or lower issues, and longer-duration 12+ year maturities (Figure 14). Muni yields and ratios versus Treasuries are historically low (Figures 2-5). This is where patience is advised. Even if yields rise and ratios mean revert, on a rolling 60

3、-month basis, Municipal bonds have an admirable record of positive performance (Figure 7). Short-term, cash coming to investors from bond maturities and redemptions should exceed new issuance and returns have been robust in the summer months (Figures 10). Municipal issues finance hospitals, educatio

4、n, clean water, low-income housing, public transit, renewable energy and more. ESG investors should also note that a study of $23 billion in new issuance found that green and non-green bonds priced to identical yields. Figure 1. Credit ratings and state pension funding highlights Source: Equable Ins

5、titute and S&P as of Dec 31, 2020 Figure 2: Muni yield ratios, by tenor Figure 3: Tax equivalent yields in select states (and NYC) Source: Bloomberg as of July 12, 2021. Note: Tax equivalent yields adjust for top Federal and Affordable Care Act tax rate (40.8%), as well as state income tax rates for

6、 each state yield. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Real results may vary. Charlie Reinhard Head North America Investment Strategy +1-212-559-6251 Bruce Harris Head Global Fixed Income Strategy +1-212- 723-1796 Joseph Kaplan Fixed Income +1-212- 559-3772 Steven Wieting Global C