2020年美国可再生能源展望报告-S&P Global(英文版)(12页).pdf

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2020年美国可再生能源展望报告-S&P Global(英文版)(12页).pdf

1、The 2020 U.S. Renewable Energy Outlook 2019 S International Renewable Energy Agency U.S. Renewable Energy Outlook 5S however, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown let it be known that she is not backing down on the issue and is prepared to use executive powers to advance the policy. Policymakers in Connecticut, M

2、aryland, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia may look to introduce carbon-tax or cap-and-trade policies during 2020 in order to help meet their greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Steps to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, or RGGI, cap-and-trade program have been taken

3、 in Pennsylvania, as Gov. Tom Wolf ordered the states Department of Environmental Protection to draft a rulemaking that would enable the state to join the initiative. Currently, nine eastern states participate in RGGI, with New Jersey effectively becoming a participant starting Jan. 1, 2020. As many

4、 states seek to implement clean energy-related measures and directives, they may look to introduce legislation to securitize costs associated with the retirement of certain generation facilities, similar to the securitization measures enacted by Colorado and Montana this past year. U.S. Renewable En

5、ergy Outlook 8S initiatives followed that provided financial incentives for construction of new transmission facilities. Meanwhile, remediation of emissions from dirty coal-burning facilities, stemming from heightened environmental awareness, also drove major capital investment into new generation f

6、acilities with the benefit of cleaner emissions profiles. Virtually all of the new investments were candidates for expanding utility rate base, resulting in a flurry of rate case activity. The spending cycle became a powerful vehicle not only for plant modernization, but also as the widespread capit

7、al spending served as a solid source of earnings growth throughout the utility sector. In a 2008 special study published by Regulatory Research Associates, a group within S&P Global Market Intelligence, total capex spending for the investor-owned utility group covered by RRA has been tallied at $36

8、billion. In the most recent update of the report, published in October, industry spending for energy utilities was expected to total $134 billion in 2019. Renewables spending up strong While renewables spending by the utility sector was only a small part less than 5% of total industry spending in 20

9、08, roughly a decade later renewables play a much more significant role in utility capital agendas. Spending on renewables is forecast to total about $14 billion across the RRA coverage universe over the three years 2019 to 2021, accounting for 11% of total industry spending. CapEx by business categ

10、ory, 2019E-2021E Generation 13% Electric trans. 18% Electric distr. 29% Gas* 20% Environ. 2% Renew. 11% Other 7% Compiled Oct. 16, 2019. *Gas includes pipeline, storage, distribution and other gas infrastructure. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Select estimated utility planned renewables CapE

11、x ($M) Company201920202021 ALLETE Inc.38047010 Alliant Energy Corp.64520015 Ameren Corp.500500NA American Electric Power Co. Inc.1,640265265 Avangrid Inc.1,1608831,038 Black Hills Corp.2829NA CMS Energy Corp.200200200 Consolidated Edison Inc.200400400 Duke Energy Corp.1,0909601,110 Entergy Corp. NAN

12、A420 IDACORP Inc.606060 MGE Energy Inc.6565NA New Jersey Resources Corp.155104107 NextEra Energy Inc.4,8106,3035,383 Otter Tail Corp.119135NA Pinnacle West Capital Corp.20213 PNM Resources Inc.8934NA Portland General Electric Co.513515 Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. 67 42 NA Sempra Energy 158

13、84 5 WEC Energy Group Inc.476538200 Xcel Energy Inc.2,3151,105240 Total 14,18212,5339,471 Compiled Oct. 16, 2019. NA = not available Source: Regulatory Research Associates, a group within S&P Global Market Intelligence U.S. Renewable Energy Outlook 10S&P Global Market Intelligence Led by NextEra Ene

14、rgy Inc. and Xcel Energy Inc., renewable energy capital expenditures are expected to remain elevated in 2020. Despite industry prognostications that renewable energy installations will slow considerably early in the next decade as federal production and investment tax credits are phased out, S&P Glo

15、bal Market Intelligence believes a number of factors will provide the impetus for ongoing electric utility renewable energy development, including falling technology costs, state policy and renewable portfolio standards, customer demand, and environmental, social and governance considerations, amid

16、a broader trend toward utility sector decarbonization. Featured Topic: Solar-plus decade kicks off with massive pipeline of battery hybrids By Garrett Hering, Reporter, Power and Utilities, S&P Global Market Intelligence In September, the U.S. solar power industry presented its vision for a radical

17、transformation of Americas energy landscape over the next decade one in which solar power provides 20% of the countrys electricity mix by 2030, up from less than 3% today. In 2020, solar companies plan to accelerate their efforts to implement that ambitious plan, which will ultimately require around

18、 500,000 MW of total installed solar photovoltaic, or PV, capacity by 2030, up from less than 70,000 MW today. To make that leap possible, the solar industrys road map relies largely on the marriage of solar PV with less proven, but highly promising, lithium-ion batteries and other energy storage te

19、chnologies. The batteries just take the solar installations to the next level, said Cherif Kedir, CEO of California-based Renewable Energy Test Center LLC. Energy storage can help enable the adoption and the growth of PV in general. As of Sept. 26, 2019. Credit: Cat Weeks Source: S&P Global Market I

20、ntelligence Solar-storage hybrids OperatingPlanned 1,242 MW of solar with 553 MW of storage with 4,175 MW of storage 8,921 MW of solar = 100 MW= 100 MW U.S. Renewable Energy Outlook 11S&P Global Market Intelligence Renewable Energy Test Center, a subsidiary of Japans Marubeni Corp., recently launche

21、d a new bankability testing service in North America to help developers, customers and investors understand and secure the high performance and reliability of their energy storage projects, in both stand-alone and solar-plus-storage configurations, while also meeting safety and quality standards. Su

22、ch initiatives will be critical to enabling what the Solar Energy Industries Association, or SEIA, a Washington, D.C.- based trade group, is calling the solar-plus decade of the 2020s an era in which battery-backed PV power plants and rooftop solar systems smooth output from the variable renewable e

23、nergy resource and contribute to U.S. electric grids after sunset, in those hours of peak electricity demand that are typically served by conventional generation. Adding energy storage to PV can also help reduce cuts in solar production during periods of midday oversupply on the grid a growing chall

24、enge in solar-rich states like California by saving otherwise idled solar-generated electricity for later use. Project pipeline fills In the next year, project developers and utilities will seek to make progress on converting an expanding pipeline of solar-plus-storage projects into steel in the gro

25、und. Roughly 40 such systems were in operation in the U.S. as of late September, combining about 533 MW of storage with 1,242 MW of solar. At least another 85 colocated solar and storage projects are under development, most of them in the near- to medium-term planning stages or under construction, a

26、ccording to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The planned projects combine 4,175 MW of storage with 8,921 MW of solar. PJM NYISO ISO -NE CAISO ERCOT SPPMISO WV PA CT NMSC NE IA NC WI WA FL DE ND UT NH AR NY MI COVA MN IN AZ KS MO IL ID ME RIWY LA TN VT NJ CA SD OK MS MA AL MD MT OR TX OH KY GA NV

27、 AK HI 409.0 0.3 Storage (MW) Operating Status Proposed Utility-scale solar-storage hybrid facilities As of Sept. 26, 2019. Map credit: Ciaralou Agpalo Palicpic Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence U.S. Renewable Energy Outlook 12S&P Global Market Intelligence Sixteen of those projects, representi

28、ng 1,540 MW of solar and 580 MW of storage, are targeted to come online in 2020, along with another 156 MW of storage planned at existing solar facilities. We will fill up batteries with solar and make storage peakers, said Cliff Graham, senior vice president of U.S. development at EDF Renewables In

29、c., an affiliate of France-based EDF Group. EDF is developing several U.S. solar-plus-storage projects, including the Big Beau Solar+Storage Project in the Mojave Desert in California, a 128-MW solar farm with 60 MW of battery storage that is scheduled to enter service in 2021 under separate contrac

30、ts with Monterey Bay Community Power and Silicon Valley Clean Energy at prices not to exceed $40/MWh. That is in line with recently contracted battery-backed power purchase agreements in the United States, some of which have been priced in the low $30/MWh. Contract prices in 2020 will depend on nume

31、rous factors, according to Graham, including the size of the battery system and the price of batteries. Whether Congress extends the 30% federal investment tax credit, or ITC, for solar, which can also apply to battery systems that charge on solar, will also influence solar-plus-storage prices in th

32、e coming year. The incentive, at 30% of project cost in 2019, falls to 26% in 2020 and 22% in 2021 before settling permanently at 10% in 2022 for businesses while zeroing out for individual tax filers. Push for tax credit extension SEIA is calling for U.S. lawmakers to approve an extension of the in

33、centive by the end of this year, an effort that may spill over into 2020. Extending the 30% ITC would stimulate 82,000 MW of installed solar capacity, drive $87 billion in new private-sector investment and create 113,000 new American jobs, SEIA and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie said in a recent rep

34、ort. While the solar industry is confident that PV will remain among the most competitive power options in the United States, whether or not the 30% tax credit is extended, some are concerned that storage could become uneconomical without it. Storage is still expensive, Graham said. It works with th

35、e ITC. I am skeptical it will be able to compete without the tax credit. In any case, the solar industry is gearing up for its push to become a major part of the U.S. power mix in 2020 and beyond. I am very confident of the industrys ability to achieve our goal under any scenario, said Dan Shugar, C

36、EO of NEXTracker Inc., a U.S.-based solar tracking subsidiary of manufacturing specialist Flex Ltd. I think we can do more than 20%. Stephanie Tsao, Ashleigh Cotting & Ciaralou Palicpic contributed to this article. For more renewable energy intelligence and data, reach out to our team of experts to

37、set up an analysis session or tour of our workflow solutions. 2019 S&P Global Market Intelligence. All rights reserved. Regulatory Research Associates is a group within S&P Global Market Intelligence, a divi- sion of S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI). Confidential Subject Matter. WARNING! This report contains

38、copyrighted subject matter and confidential information owned solely by S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI). Reproduction, distribution or use of this report in violation of this license constitutes copyright infringement in violation of federal and state law. SPGMI hereby provides consent to use the “email this story” feature to redistribute articles within the subscribers company. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that SPGMI believes to be reliable, SPGMI does not guarantee its accuracy.



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