兰德公司：2024高级研究项目机构在项目选择过程中如何平衡研究的难度和可行性：“金发姑娘”问题的益处与局限（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、AARON B.FRANK,RYAN ANDREW BROWNHow Advanced Research Project Agencies Pick Their ProgramsThe Benefits and Limits of Goldilocks ProblemsThe U.S.government has increasingly looked to employ Advanced Research Project Agen-cies(ARPAs)to advance scientific knowledge and develop novel technological capabi

2、lities in a variety of departmental missions.1 These ARPAs differ from traditional research and development(R&D)organizations in that,by design,their mandate is to fund high-risk,high-reward programs that,if successful,would provide the United States with transformative capa-bilities.2 These organiz

3、ationsthe Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA),the Intel-ligence Advanced Research Projects Activity(IARPA),the Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency(HSARPA),the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy(ARPA-E),the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Health(ARPA-H),and Advanc

4、ed Research Projects Agency-Infrastructure(ARPA-I)take on scientific and technical challenges within an organizational framework that empowers a small number of program managers(PMs)to make substantial invest-ments in research areas to test whether paradigm-changing approaches to meeting their depar

5、t-ments mission needs are viable and to identify gaps in scientific and technical knowledge that limit what is possible.To better understand what types of risks ARPA programs should take,we held discussions in March through June 2023 with 18 experts from within and outside of RAND,using the concept

6、of“Goldilocks problems”as an initial framing for our discussions.3 Within this pool of experts,six were current or former ARPA PMs or senior managers,and an additional four worked closely with the ARPAs through their professional roles in other government research organizations or feder-ally funded