普华永道：2024南非经济展望报告（英文版）（10页）.pdf

1、Signs of improvement in South Africas near-term economic prospects Fresh momentum in post-election business environment as reforms continue 28 October 2024 South Africa Economic OutlookStrategy&Ten key messages from this report 2South Africa Economic Outlook October 2024Global financial markets have

2、 shown improved sentiment towards South Africas economy since the formation of the 10-party Government of National Unity(GNU).The Johannesburg Stock Exchange(JSE)All Share Index gained 15.2%in Q3,the rand appreciated close to R17/$in late-September and government bond yields fell to the lowest in th

3、ree years.1Key publications on domestic business activity and senti-ment show that expectations for business conditions in the short-term are at the highest levels in several years.Drivers of this improved sentiment include,among other factors,progress in the collaboration between organised business

4、 and government on key factors surrounding energy,logistics and crime.2In March 2024,the South African Reserve Bank(SARB)expected load-shedding to cost the country 0.6 percentage points of real GDP growth.In a statement on 19 September,as South Africa approached its eighth month without power cuts,t

5、he SARB reduced this estimate to just 0.1 percentage points due to a hiatus in planned power cuts since March.3The outlook for the manu-facturing sector has improved as global demand conditions turn positive,and as the start of the interest rate cutting cycle reduces pressure on local consumers.Easi

6、ng monetary policy will also benefit the construction and real estate sectors going forward as lower lending rates support increased demand for mortgages4There is upside potential in transport volumes and associated export revenues over the short term after the government and private sector renewed