国际能源署：2024年第一季度全球石油市场报告（英文版）（90页）.pdf

1、 12 April 2024 World oil demand growth continues to lose momentum with 1Q24 growth of 1.6 mb/d,120 kb/d below our previous forecast due to exceptionally weak OECD deliveries.With the post-Covid rebound now largely complete,and vehicle efficiencies and an expanding EV fleet acting as further drags on

2、 oil demand,growth in 2024 and 2025 slows to 1.2 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d,respectively.Non-OPEC+,led by the US,is set to drive world supply growth through 2025.For 2024,global output is forecast to rise by 770 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d.Non-OPEC+production will expand by 1.6 mb/d,while OPEC+supply could fall 820 k

3、b/d if voluntary cuts remain in place.In 2025,global growth could rise to 1.6 mb/d.Non-OPEC+is forecast to lead gains,rising 1.4 mb/d,while OPEC+output could increase by 220 kb/d if curbs stay in place.Global refinery throughputs are forecast to rise by 1 mb/d to 83.3 mb/d in 2024,160 kb/d less than

4、 in last months Report,on lower Russian runs,unplanned outages in Europe and still-tepid Chinese activity.Throughputs are projected to increase by 830 kb/d to 84.2 mb/d in 2025,as non-OECD growth of 1.1 mb/d more than offsets declines in the OECD.Global observed oil inventories rose by 43.3 mb in Fe

5、bruary to a seven-month apex with oil on water at its highest level in 15 months.By contrast,on land stocks fell to their lowest since at least 2016.OECD industry stocks decreased by 7.6 mb in February,remaining 65.1 mb below the five-year average.Early data indicate that they built by 22 mb in Marc

6、h.ICE Brent crude futures hit a six-month high of$90/bbl in early April amid escalating tensions in the Middle East,attacks on Russian refineries and an extension of OPEC+outputs cuts through June.Crudes price strength was underpinned by bullish investor sentiment,with exchange net fund positions in