Kroll:2024年春季汽车行业洞察报告(英文版)(20页).pdf

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Kroll:2024年春季汽车行业洞察报告(英文版)(20页).pdf

1、S P R ING 20 24ReportLearn moreAutomotive IndustryIndustry HighlightsOverview2Globally,auto sales in 2024 are forecast to grow modestly compared to 2023.Despite a slowdown in growth,sales volumes in 2024 are expected to surpass 92 million units and reach the highest levels since 2018.1 Vehicle produ

2、ction is expected to decline slightly into 2024 due to a faster-than-expected inventory restocking and a more difficult consumer demand environment.2In 2023,global vehicle sales rose 10.9%as supply chain issues eased worldwide.Production returned to normal levels and inventories were restocked.1 In

3、the U.S.,light vehicle sales increased 13.1%year-over-year(YoY)to 15.5 million units in 2023.3 U.S.vehicle sales are expected to grow to 15.9 million units in 2024,the highest level since 2019.2Chinese auto sales rose to 30.1 million units in 2023,up 11.9%from 2022.4 China continues to dominate the

4、electrified vehicle(EV)market,as over 35%of new vehicles sold in 2023 were EVs.Yearly EV market share is expected to surpass 50%by 2026.5In Europe,sales in 2023 rebounded off a record-low 2022,3 led by Western and Central European Markets.2 The four largest European markets(Germany,France,Italy and

5、Spain)all saw increases in new passenger registrations,with France,Italy,and Spain each growing over 16%.6M&A activity in the automotive sector experienced a significant decline in 2023,reaching the lowest number of transactions closed in the last decade.The number of transactions through the first

6、quarter of 2024 was down 35%YoY.7Public company equity performance in most selected automotive indexes trended upward in the first quarter of 2023,although the Electric Vehicles index underperformed other groups and the overall market.73Global Light Vehicle Sales Grew 11%from 2022 to 20231Global Aut

7、o Sales Expected to Grow Modestly in 20241Automotive Partnerships with eVTOLs Expected to Start Service in Coming Years9U.S.Electric Vehicle Market Share Hit New Highs in 2023,but Momentum Has Slowed8Executive SummaryAutomotive M&A Activity in 2023 Fell to a 10 year Low7BrandBestselling VehicleBrand

8、%of 2023 Market Share2022 Rank1.Toyota Corolla10.7%12.Volkswagen Tiguan6.0%23.Honda CR-V4.6%34.Hyundai Tucson4.5%45.Ford F-Series4.4%102023 in Review and Future ExpectationsGlobal Auto Sales Trends4In 2023,global vehicle sales grew almost 11%YoY.1 As supply chain issues eased,especially related to c

9、omputer chips,auto production returned to normal levels globally and inventories were restocked across many regions.3 Global car sales increased to nearly 90 million units in 2023,up from 81 million in 2022 and the highest level seen since 2019.China,the largest market in the world,grew considerably

10、 at 12%.4 The U.S.rebounded after a poor 2022 with a 13%increase in sales.India remained the third largest single-country car market with 8%growth and 4.1 million units sold.Sales in Europe grew after four years of decline.Japan was close behind with nearly 16%growth and 4.0 million units sold.3 Vol

11、umes in Mexico continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain issues as the country became the fastest growing large car market in the world,surpassing 1.3 million units sold and a 24%growth rate compared to 2022.10Globally,vehicle sales are projected to increase between 2.5%and 3.

12、0%in 2024,followed by another year of projected modest growth of around 2.0%to 2.5%in 2025.1,2Annual Global Vehicle Sales2023 Global Bestselling BrandsSources:“New Tiguan Generation:Volkswagens Bestseller Celebrates World Premiere in Front of 10,000 Employees.”VW Newsroom.September 19,2023.“World Be

13、st Selling Car Ranking 2023.”Focus2Move.January 5,2023.“World Best Selling Car Brands in 2023.”Focus2Move.February 25,2023.All trademarks,trade names,or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.95.394.390.277.881.581.089.892.294.2-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0.020.040.060.080.0100

14、.020172018201920202021202220232024F2025FGrowthUnits in MillionsUnitsGrowthSources:“Global car market to hit the speed bumps in 2024.”ING.February 23,2023.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18May-19Nov-19May-20Nov-20May-21Nov-21May-

15、22Nov-22May-23Nov-232023 in Review and Future Expectations2024 Global Automotive Outlook5In 2024,global vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly due to a recovering supply chain and pent-up demand.Those sales expectations are tempered by elevated vehicle pricing and tough lending conditions.Produ

16、ction in 2024 is expected to remain flat as many geographies have reached inventory equilibrium following a tumultuous few years.2 United States:Vehicle sales in the U.S.are expected to grow at a moderate pace to 15.9 million units in 2024,up from 15.5 million units in 2023.15.9 million units would

17、be the highest annual count since 2019.High interest rates(see chart below)and tight credit conditions,as well as higher sticker prices,are expected to negatively impact sales estimates.Production is expected to continue to grow,leading to higher inventories and the possibility for increased sales i

18、ncentives.The number of battery electric vehicle(BEV)models available is expected to cross 100 in 2024,offering customers more choices across segments and price points.2China:The 2024 market is expected to see another year of strong growth,with light vehicle sales expected to grow 4.2%.Sales increas

19、es are expected to be supported by improving consumer confidence and the continued pent-up demand from pandemic lockdowns.Electrified vehicle(EV)sales are expected to further increase in 2024 as battery prices continue to fall and Chinas EV tax exemption is extended.EV market share is expected to re

20、ach 44%for the full year.2Europe:2024 vehicle sales are forecasted at 15.1 million units,up 2.9%from 14.7 million units in 2023.While improving inventory levels are expected to boost sales,recession worries,credit conditions,ending of EV subsidies,and high car prices may moderate that growth.Vehicle

21、 production in Europe is estimated to fall 1.8%in 2024,as growing imports from China and already-higher inventory levels are expected to temper manufacturing levels.2Electrified Vehicles:Globally,electrified vehicle sales are expected to increase by nearly 40%to 13.3 million units in 2024.BEV market

22、 share is expected to rise to an estimated 16.2%,up from 2023 market share of 12.0%.China is once again expected to be the world leader in BEV sales,but geographies like Europe and India are expected to have more growth.2 As shown on the next page,the U.S.EV market is expected to grow significantly

23、in 2024,albeit less than previously expected.11,12 Average Rate on 48 Month New U.S.Auto LoansSources:FRED2023 in Review and 2024 ExpectationsUnited States Electrified Vehicle Update6Electrified vehicle sales hit an all-time high in the U.S.in 2023,with over 1.1 million BEVs sold.That represents a s

24、taggering 53%increase over 2022 BEV sales.Counting HEVs and PHEVs,total EV sales also increased by over 50%in 2023.Despite the record sales numbers,underlying trends could signal the start of a slowdown.Q4 2023 BEV sales were the slowest growing quarter since 2020,and the first two months of 2024 sa

25、w declining month over month(MoM)BEV sales.8 Additionally,EV inventories are increasing114 days of supply in December 2023,up from 53 days in 2022 and markedly higher than 71 days for the overall auto industry.13High Prices:The average EV sells for about$51,000.That is down from over$66,000 over a y

26、ear ago but is still more expensive than the average for all vehicles.Generally,most EVs are higher priced,with 78%in the premium category.14 By December 2023,only two models could be purchased for under$40,000:the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf.15 Additionally,while EV driversGas Prices vs EV Market Pe

27、netration in the United StatesSources:Argonne National LaboratoryU.S.Energy Information Administrationsave in gas costs,they generally pay more for insurance and installation of at-home chargers.All in,the average cost of owning an EV over the first five years is$65,000 compared with the average gas

28、 vehicle at under$57,000.16 Battery Range and Charging Stations:On top of high prices,77%of consumers worry about lack of charging stations and 73%stress about battery life.16 This“range anxiety”persists even though 93%of U.S.trips were less than 30 miles and U.S.drivers travel only 40 miles per day

29、 on average.17Outlook:2024 has not seen a great start for the EV market.Ford and GM have cut production of their EV trucks,other manufacturers have reduced their EV sales projections,and Tesla has warned of slower growth this year.12 Despite these announcements,experts still expect EV sales to grow

30、substantially in 2024,with average projected sales growth of over 40%.11EV=Electrified Vehicles0.00%4.00%8.00%12.00%16.00%20.00%$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00Feb-18May-18Aug-18Nov-18Feb-19May-19Aug-19Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-

31、23Feb-24Retail Gasoline PricesBEV Monthly Market ShareEV Monthly Market ShareSources:Inside Climate News2024 Projections2023AutoPacificCox AutoS&P Global MobilityBEV Sales(millions)1.131.451.571.75BEV Market Share7.3%9.0%10.0%11.0%BEV=Battery Electric VehicleHEV=Hybrid Electric VehiclePHEV=Plug-In H

32、ybrid Electric Vehicle2023 in Review and Future ExpectationsAutonomous Technology Developments7Although leading players in the autonomous vehicle(AV)industry were able to effectively run and expand first commercial operations,and increase funding in 2023,many other companies saw significant setbacks

33、,stopped operations,or exited the market entirely.Below are the key takeaways from the AV industry in 2023 as well as its future potential in 2024 and beyond:Players Expect Regional and Market Consolidation:Market players and industry experts believe that three or fewer companies will capture a domi

34、nant share of the market in the coming years.The North American market is expected to have the most players,while in contrast,many experts believe the European market will be dominated by two or fewer players.Although there has been an increase in development and interest in autonomous technology in

35、 the auto industry,no company has yet been able to fully reach large-scale commercialization.Some estimates still expect autonomous driving systems with no safety driver in the vehicle could still take up to 10 more years.Expansion of AVs will likely be gradual and on a region-by-region basis.One ex

36、ample of a company adopting a smaller-scale commercialization would be Waymo One,which offers fully autonomous rides in Phoenix,Arizona.Timeline for Autonomous Vehicle Adoption Is Extending:The timeline for adoption of AVs is believed to have slipped by two to three years on average across all auton

37、omy levels.According to a new survey conducted by McKinsey&Company,L4 robo-taxis are now expected to be commercially available in 2030 and fully autonomous trucking by 2028-2031.AV regulations and regulatory challenges have become obstacles for advancement.Regulation,Technology,&Consumer Safety=Bott

38、lenecks:Industry players believe regulation is the biggest bottleneck to the autonomous industry.However,this year these players reported an increased focus on a need for investment in technology.Continued consumer adoption of AVs is also a major concern,with over 66%of leaders pointing to improved

39、safety as a key consideration for consumers.The ability to multitask and do work while driving are considered a secondary consideration.Increased Investments in Software Needed to Achieve Full Autonomy:It is now understood that a significant increase in investment is needed to fully reach L4 and hig

40、her levels of autonomy until first commercial launch.Software development will be the major driver of this much-needed investment.Software development and enhancements will have a critical role in pushing technology forward and displaying AVs overall safety.Software is expected to require a signific

41、ant investment,but it is also expected to be the most profitable of the technology elements for AVs,at around 15%for average margins.Expect Industry Leaders to Experiment with New Monetization Models:As more advanced AVs appear,many industry experts believe new go-to-market models will likely be imp

42、lemented.Established AV players mainly stick to pay-per-use models,however start-ups and smaller companies prefer subscription models.Industry leaders are also considering pay-per-mile and per-trip models.Sources:“Autonomous vehicles moving forward:Perspectives from industry leaders.”McKinsey&Compan

43、y.January 5,2024.Hawkins,Andrew J.“Dude,wheres my self-driving car?”The Verge.February 14,2024.“Which Trends are driving the autonomous vehicle industry?”World Economic Forum.November 8,2021.Innovation by Region:In the sample used by McKinsey&Company,companies based in the U.S.are far more likely to

44、 report that they are working on one or more of the top five tech trends mentioned in the exhibit below.As an example,33%of companies working on applied AI are based in the U.S.Continued disruptions in the market(e.g.,the recent semiconductor shortage)have dramatically accelerated several underlying

45、 technological advancements in the auto industry.Applied AI and Transformative Impact:Applied AI was examined to be the most popular technology trend of the ten transformative trends listed in the exhibit to the right.This technology is set to disrupt multiple aspects of the mobility industry.Promin

46、ence of Applied AI within the mobility industry enhances numerous processes,enables automation,and addresses long-standing issues/problems.Following are a few examples:1.Engineering and R&D:Some companies use Applied AI to create and control virtual worlds in which they can“train”specific algorithms

47、 that enable autonomous driving.AI algorithms can identify weaknesses in current structures and models,as well as run millions of additional scenarios for use in testing.2.Procurement:Original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)are using Applied AI to identify environmental,social and governance risks alo

48、ng the supply chain.Algorithms can analyze news items about key-specific suppliers to identify potential problems,such as history with corruption,scandals or anything else,much more quickly and efficiently than any human.3.Manufacturing:Using Applied AI in tandem with vision cameras,lidar,and radar,

49、OEMs have been able to improve quality control during manufacturing.For example,a leading automotive manufacturer is using AI-controlled robots to maintain individual vehicle processing and quality standards.AI-infused cameras have led to manufacturers being able to scan and identify even the most m

50、inor variations even in reflective paintwork.4.Marketing and Sales:Companies utilize Applied AI to identify customers who might be at risk of choosing another competitor and then create incentives to increase their satisfaction instantly,potentially increasing customer retention and decreasing costs

51、.5.Life Cycle Services:OEMs that incorporate Applied AI into vehicle production and onboarding systems can analyze their customers information and preferences and then make personalized recommendations or enhancements.2023 in Review and Future ExpectationsMobility Technology&Applied AI8The mobility

52、sector has gone under rapid transformation over the past few years due mostly in part to the growth in EVs,autonomous driving,and other technological innovations.A survey done by McKinsey&Company on the mobility sector analyzed and identified the top 10 transformative technologies in the mobility se

53、ctor and whether companies were already implementing or planned to implement these technologies in the near term.Most of these businesses are focused on innovation and investment related to applied AI systems.Disruptions in the industry are on the horizon for the mobility sector as it is a rapidly c

54、hanging ecosystem with new innovations being created on a frequent basis.Companies that focus on the top ten transformative technologies influencing the mobility sector can disrupt the industry with new emerging products and services that transform vehicles,provide consumers with new options,and imp

55、rove revenue streams.Top 10 Transformative Tech Trends in the Mobility Sector1.Advanced Connectivity 2.Applied AI3.Cloud and Edge Computing4.Generative AI 5.Immersive-Reality Tech6.Industrialization of Machine Learning7.Next-Generation Software Development8.Quantum Tech9.Trust Architecture and Digit

56、al-Identity Tools10.Web3Top Five Tech Trends that Companies in the Mobility Industry Are Most Likely to Invest In57.6%16.4%13.2%7.7%5.1%Applied AIAdvancedConnectivityCloud and EdgeComputingWeb3Immersive-RealityTechSources:“What technology trends are shaping the mobility sector?”McKinsey&Company.Febr

57、uary 14,2024.“The future of automotive mobility to 2035.”Deloitte.February 16,2023.Cubiss,Jay.“The Future of Automotive and Mobility.”Forbes.May 5,2021.2023 in Review and Future ExpectationsAir Mobility Update and Select Partnerships9Source:Bigelow,Pete.“Air mobility meets autos:Stellantis,Toyota,Hy

58、undai bring manufacturing muscle to new market.”Automotive News.January 30,2024.Note:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective ownersHyundai and Supernal:Supernal is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hyundai.Aircraft:V-tailed,tilt-rotor S-A2 aircraft.Plan

59、to select a manufacturing site in the U.S.Expected to get certification for the aircrafts airworthiness through the FAA this year.Plans to launch service in 2028,with S-A2 prototype ready for flight tests in 2024 and preproduction testing in 2026-2027.Los Angeles is likely target for first rollouts,

60、however,no official routes disclosed yet.The auto industry is rapidly changing and many of the biggest companies in this sector are hoping to diversify their portfolios beyond just ground vehicles.Many companies like Hyundai,Toyota,Stellantis and Mercedez-Benz have all invested in air mobility start

61、-ups that could see takeoff in the near future.Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft(eVTOL)could be manufactured in the thousands at already established auto plants and factories.The hope is to allow a new form of transportation for commuters,while also decongesting current highway systems.

62、The eVTOL industry is currently valued at$8.8 billion and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 20%to$37.2 billion by 2030.Toyota and Joby:Toyota invested around$400 million in Joby.In April 2023,Toyota signed long-term agreement to supply key components,such as powertrains,to Joby.Joby plans to

63、open a factory capable of manufacturing 500 aircraft a year in Dayton,Ohio,later this year.Toyota helped Joby set up first production line in Marina,California.New York City has been eyed as the potential first destination for rollouts.Stellantis and Archer:A manufacturing-oriented partnership betwe

64、en auto maker Stellantis and Archer Aviation,one of the leading eVTOL start-ups.Construction on a factory in Covington,Georgia,is currently underway.Expected to begin production in mid-2024 and be capable of eventually producing 650 aircraft per year with space to expand to around 2,300 aircraft per

65、 year.Archer secured a$215 million investment from Stellantis,Boeing and United Airlines.Stellantis currently owns more than 38 million shares of Archer stock.Goal is to start service by 2025 in Chicago.Mercedes-Benz/Geely and Volocopter:In 2017,Volocopter raised$780.6 million,which included a$30 mi

66、llion investment from Merceds-Benz.Volocopter has tested aircraft in major markets all around the world including,most recently,New York and Tampa as of November 2023.Commercial Service expected in the summer of 2024 specifically for Paris in time for the Paris Olympic Games.Service would start with

67、 the“VoloCity”two-passenger aircraft and eventually plan to expand to larger passenger vehicles as well as drones to carry cargo.15.5 16.4 17.4 17.5 17.2 17.3 17.0 14.7 15.0 13.7 15.5 15.9 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.0Units in MillionsAutomotive Landscape by GeographyNorth American Auto Sa

68、les Trends10In 2023,U.S.new light-vehicle sales hit 15.5 million units.This is a 13.1%increase from 2022 and is the highest sales total since 2019,3 but still over 1.8 million units lower than the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average.Despite a United Auto Workers strike that disrupted production,2023 was

69、a surprisingly strong year for U.S.auto sales,as the new vehicle market was bolstered by increased deliveries,improved supply,and higher dealer incentives.New vehicle inventory continued to build through the end of the year,with inventory volume at 2.6 million,an increase of nearly 55%compared to on

70、e year ago.Days supply also grew from 60 days at the end of 2022 to 71 by December 2023.182024 forecasted sales in the U.S.are expected to grow modestly to 15.9 million.2 Despite normalizing supply conditions to end of 2023,experts believe that high vehicle prices and elevated interest rates will ke

71、ep vehicle sales modest in 2024.18 Rising incentive levels may help vehicle affordability in 2024 if production and inventory levels continue to grow.2By category,pickup trucks dominated the U.S.market once again with the top three selling vehicles in 2023.19 BEVs,however,were the fastest growing ca

72、tegory.BEVs increased from a 5.4%U.S.market share in 2022 to 7.3%in 2023,with 1.1 million units sold.Including HEVs and PHEVs,the total electrified vehicle market share in the U.S.was 16.8%.8Yearly U.S.Vehicle Sales2023 U.S.Bestselling VehiclesModelMakeUnits SoldChange From 20221.Ford F-Series750,78

73、914.8%2.Chevrolet Silverado555,1486.6%3.Ram Pickup444,927-5.0%4.Toyota RAV4434,94318.6%5.Honda CRV361,45751.8%Sources:“2023 U.S.Auto Sales Figures By Model.”Good Car Bad Car.March 2024.All trademarks,trade names,or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.Sources:“US Auto

74、Industry Sales Analysis.”GoodCarBadCar.March 2024.Bekker,Henk.“2023(Full Year)International:Worldwide Car Sales.”Best-Selling-Cars.January 19,2024.“S&P Global Mobility Forecasts 88.3M Auto Sales in 2024.”S&P Global.December 14,2023.Automotive Landscape by GeographyChinese Automotive Landscape11Chine

75、se automotive sales in 2023 increased to a record 30.1 million vehicles,up 12%from 2022.Much of the increase came in commercial vehicle sales,up 22%to 4.0 million for the year as commercial sales continued to recover from COVID-19 lows.Aggressive promotional campaigns and steep discounts led to the

76、increased domestic consumption.Exports rose 58%,as sales to Russia increased after many other car manufacturers withdrew from the market following the Russia-Ukraine war.4January 2024 saw reduced sales volumes as dealers pulled back on their year-end discounts.February sales are also expected to be

77、light as dealers shut down for the Chinese New Year holiday.20 Despite a slow start to 2024,sales are expected to increase this year with further post-COVID consumer confidence increases,and as EVs continue to become more affordable with falling battery prices and EV tax exemptions.2BYD topped Volks

78、wagen to become Chinas top-selling car brand in 2023,driven by their dominant electrified vehicle market share.In the last quarter of 2023,BYD surpassed Tesla as the largest global seller of EVs.21 EV monthly market share topped 40%for first time in November 2023.Despite a drop in EV market share to

79、 start 2024,monthly share is expected to cross the 50%threshold before the end of the year.5Chinese Monthly Auto SalesSources:China Association of Automobile ManufacturersClean Technica0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50EV Monthly Market ShareVehicles in

80、MillionsMonthly Vehicle Sales4-Month Moving AverageEV Monthly Market ShareAutomotive Landscape by GeographyEuropean Automotive Landscape12In 2023,car registrations were up 13.8%in the EU,EFTA and UK combined compared to 2022,with most major markets experiencing significant registration growth.The fo

81、ur largest markets of Germany,France,Italy and Spain grew 7.3%,16.1%,18.9%and 16.7%,respectively.Much of the increase was attributed to increased production due to easing of supply chain issues.Elsewhere in Europe,the UK grew 17.9%and Turkey grew an astonishing 63.2%to nearly 1 million registrations

82、 in 2023.Russia and Ukraine both experienced some recovery after a poor 2022.Despite a strong year overall,December registrations actually declined YoY,the first decrease in 16 months.6 The EV market in the EU grew substantially in 2023.BEV volume grew 37%in 2023 to over 1.5 million units registered

83、 for the year.For the EU+EFTA+UK,market share of BEVs grew to 15.7%,up from 13.9%in 2022.Including HEVs and PHEVs,market share of all EVs reached 49.8%in 2023.6Looking forward to 2024,European vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly,around 3%.2 While improved production and better inventory help

84、ed grow vehicle sales in 2023,consumers are expected to face headwinds in 2024.Similar to North America,higher interest rates,inflation,elevated vehicle prices,and political and economic risks are expected to temper vehicle sale expectations for 2024.2,22European Monthly Auto Registrations2023 New C

85、ar Fuel TypesSource:The European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA)Note:Monthly registrations represent new passenger car registrations in the European Union(EU),European Free Trade Association(EFTA),and the United Kingdom(UK)10.7%12.3%26.2%16.1%18.2%18.7%16.7%20.7%11.1%14.1%6.0%-3.8%-10.0%0

86、.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%03006009001,2001,500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear Over Year GrowthNew Registrations in Thousands2021 Registrations2022 Registrations2023 Registrations2024 Registrations2023 YoY Growth35.7%11.9%26.4%15.7%7.7%2.6%GasolineDieselHybid ElectricBattery ElectricPlug-In HybridOt

87、her-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23S&P 500Automotive Aftermarket Parts and RepairAutomotive SuppliersAutomotive MobilityAutomotive OEMsAutomotive DealersElectric Vehicles-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%1-Jan-2416-Jan-243

88、1-Jan-2415-Feb-241-Mar-2416-Mar-24Public Company Trading StatisticsPublic Company Equity Performance13Over the past two years,the automotive indexes varied significantly in performance.Automotive Mobility rose 59.7%,driven largely by increases in ride-sharing companies since the third quarter of las

89、t year.The Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair,Automotive Dealers,and Automotive OEMs indices ended the two-year period up 43.6%,26.5%and 19.2%,respectively.Automotive Suppliers underperformed the S&P 500,decreasing by 2.5%.The Electric Vehicles index declined 53.4%due to significant stock decli

90、nes at Tesla,Rivian and Lucid.7 In the YTD period ended March 31,2024,the Automotive Mobility index was the largest gainer,up 25.0%.Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair was up 21.4%and Automotive OEMs was up 19.5%,outperforming the S&P 500 gain of 10.8%during that same time period.The Automotive

91、Suppliers and Automotive Dealers indices increased slightly,while the Electric Vehicles index declined nearly 30%as each company in the index has declined over 25%YTD.7Last Two Years Equity Market PerformanceYTD 2024 Equity Market Performance43.6%20.1%26.5%(53.4%)19.2%(2.5%)59.7%21.4%10.8%3.9%(29.7%

92、)19.5%0.9%25.0%Note:Represents the most actively traded public automotive sector companiesSource:S&P Capital IQ as of March 31,202414.8x8.6x5.4x11.3x6.7x8.1x15.1x5.3x6.9x12.3x5.0 x6.1x13.1x6.6x5.4x13.5x7.0 x5.2x0.0 x4.0 x8.0 x12.0 x16.0 x20.0 xAutomotive AftermarketAutomotive DealersAutomotive Suppl

93、iersFY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023LTM as of 3/31/2410.6x13.3x10.3x8.5x8.1x6.1x0.0 x4.0 x8.0 x12.0 x16.0 x20.0 xAutomotive OEMsPublic Company Trading StatisticsHistorical Trading Multiples14The Automotive OEMs are trading at 6.1x LTM EPS,down over 4.0 x from their five-year median price-to-earnings(P

94、/E)multiple of 10.3x.The Automotive Aftermarket Index is currently trading in line with their five-year median EV/EBITDA multiple.Historically,the Aftermarket Index has consistently traded around 11.0 x to 15.0 x EV/EBITDA.Automotive Dealer multiples have increased in the last year,currently trading

95、 at 7.0 x,up from 5.0 x in 2022.Automotive Suppliers are trading below their five-year median multiple of 6.1x.7Historical P/E Multiples Since 2019Historical EBITDA Multiples Since 2019Note:Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made in the Automotive Valuatio

96、n Deck on pages 3-7Source:S&P Capital IQ as of March 31,2024,and company filings5-Year Median:10.3x5-Year Median:13.1x5-Year Median:6.6x5-Year Median:6.1xM&A ActivityHistorical M&A Activity by Quarter15Quarterly M&A activity in the automotive sector has declined over the last two years.As interest r

97、ates increased throughout 2022 and 2023,volume fell from 29 deals closed in Q1 2022 to only 11 in Q1 2024.On a yearly basis,deal activity slowed in 2020 due to concerns from COVID-19,but volume bounced back in 2021 and the first half of 2022.In 2023,volume fell to only 60 transactions closed,the low

98、est total in the last decade.7Automotive Industry Quarterly M&ANote:All transactions with available target financials closed in the respective time periodSource:S&P Capital IQAutomotive Industry Yearly M&A24232318221112302122142429241916171214171105101520253035122887581886011020406080100120140201820

99、192020202120222023Q1 2024May 2023May 2023May 2023has been acquired byApr.2023has been acquired byApr.2023has been acquired byMay 2023has been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byFuel and Retail BusinessIber-Oleff BrasilM&A ActivityNotable Industry M&A Transactions16Mar.2024has been ac

100、quired byDec.2023has been acquired byDec.2023has been acquired byOct.2023has been acquired byOct.2023has been acquired byFeb.2024has been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byOct.2022Jul.2022Jul.2022Jul.202

101、2Jul.2022Sep.2022Impero Jersey Corp.Ltd.Digital Mobility BusinessNote:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective ownersSelect Kroll Automotive Transaction ExperienceAirxcel,Inc.,a portfolio company of L Catterton,has completed a comprehensive reorganiz

102、ation transaction.Solvency OpinioneHi Car Services Limited was acquired by a consortium of investors including its chairman,MBK Partners Fund IV,L.P.,and Baring Private Equity Asia Limited.Financial advisor to the special committee of independent directors of eHi Car Services Limited.Fairness Opinio

103、nSORL Auto Parts,Inc.(NasdaqGM:SORL)has been acquired by an insider-led consortium in a going private transaction.Financial advisor to the special committee of independent directors of the board of directors of SORL Auto Parts,Inc.Fairness OpinionAmerican Trailer World Corp.,a portfolio company of B

104、ain Capital,LP,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Solvency OpinionSolvency OpinionJHT Holdings,Inc.has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of JHT Holdings,Inc.KAR Auction Services,Inc.(NYSE:KAR)has compl

105、eted the spin-off of IAA,Inc.Solvency OpinionFinancial advisor to the board of directors of KAR Auction Services,Inc.Fenix Parts,Inc.has been acquired by Stellex Capital Management LP.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Fenix Parts Inc.Fairness OpinionFairness OpinionDaimler AG(XTRA:DAI)h

106、as settled two arbitration matters with the Federal Republic of Germany related to its JV interest in Toll Collect GmbH.Financial advisor to the board of management of Daimler AG and Daimler Financial Services AG.17Note:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their

107、respective ownersSelect Kroll Automotive Transaction ExperienceSolvency OpinionChassis Brakes International B.V.,a portfolio company of KPS Capital Partners,LP,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Chassis Brakes International

108、B.V.AxleTech International,LLC,a portfolio company of The Carlyle Group,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of AxleTech International,LLC.Solvency OpinionFairness OpinionUQM Technologies Inc.has sold newly issued common shares t

109、o Hybrid Kinetic Group Ltd.Financial advisor to the board of directors of UQM Technologies Inc.Atlas Crest Investment Corp.entered into a business combination agreement with Archer Aviation.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Atlas Crest Investment Corp.Fairness OpinionCap-Con Automotive

110、Technologies Ltd.,a portfolio company of The Jordan Company,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Cap-Con Automotive Technologies Ltd.Solvency OpinionSolvency OpinionTekfor Global Holdings Ltd.,a portfolio company of Kohlberg K

111、ravis Roberts&Co.,has completed an internal restructuring.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Tekfor Holding Germany GmbH.Solvency OpinionChassix Inc.has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Chassix Inc.Fairness Opinion

112、Johnson Controls Inc.has sold its Power Solutions business to Brookfield Business Partners L.P.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Johnson Controls Inc.18Note:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective ownersSources191.“Global car market to

113、hit the speed bumps in 2024.”ING.February 23,2023.2.“S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024.”S&P Global.December 14,2023.3.Bekker,Henk.“2023(Full Year)International:Worldwide Car Sales.”Best-Selling Cars.January 19,2024.4.“China sales surge in December and 2023.”Just Auto.January 12,

114、2024.5.Pontes,Jose.“25%of New Car Sales in China Were 100%Electric in 2023!”CleanTechnica.February 2024.6.“New car registrations;+13.9%in 2023;battery electric 14.6%market share.”European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA).January 18,2024.7.S&P Capital IQ.April 2023.8.“Light Duty Electric Dr

115、ive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates Historical Data.”Argonne National Laboratory.April 2024.9.Bigelow,Pete.“Air mobility meets autos:Stellantis,Toyota,Hyundai bring manufacturing muscle to new market.”Automotive News.January 30,2024.10.MND Staff.“Car sales in Mexico reached highest level since 2018.”

116、Mexico News Daily.January 5,2024.11.Gearino,Dan.“U.S.Electric Vehicles Sales Are Poised to Rise A Lot in 2024,Despite What You May Have Heard.”Inside Climate News.February 8,2024.12.Dugan,Kevin T.“A Once Unthinkable Question:Could Electric-Vehicle Sales Decline This Year?”Intelligencer.February 14,2

117、024.13.Financial Post Staff.“Top headlines:EVs pile up at U.S.dealer as inventories hit record high.”Financial Post.December 15,2023.14.Domonoske,Camila.“EVs won over early adopters,but mainstream buyers arent along for the ride yet.”NPR.February 7,2024.15.“A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the

118、U.S.in 2023,According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book.”Cox Automotive.January 9,2024.16.Lee,Medora.“Heres why people arent buying EVs in spite of price cuts and tax breaks.”USA Today.November 14,2023.17.Marx,Paris.“What happened to EVs?”Business Insider.January 3,2024.18.“Cox Automotive Forecast:

119、U.S.Auto Sales Expected to Finish 2023 Up More Than 11%Year Over Year,as General Motors Retains Top Spot,Hyundai Motor Group Jumps Past Stellantis.”Cox Automotive.December 27,2023.19.“2023 U.S.Vehicle Sales Rankings Every Vehicle Ranked by Sales Volume.”GoodCarBadCar.March 2024.20.Jin,Qian.“Top-Sell

120、ing car brands in January 2024 in China VW overtook BYD to become No.1.”CarNewsChina.February 8,2024.21.Dnistran,Iulian.“VW,Chinas Long-Time Top-Selling Car Brand,Was Dethroned by BYD in 2023.”InsideEVs.January 25,2024.22.Winton,Neil.“Europes Auto Profitability To Slip In 2024,But Watch Out For 2025

121、.”Forbes.February 14,2024.For more information,please contact:About KrollAs the leading independent provider of risk and financial advisory solutions,Kroll leverages our unique insights,data and technology to help clients stay ahead of complex demands.Krolls global team continues the firms nearly 10

122、0-year history of trusted expertise spanning risk,governance,transactions and valuation.Our advanced solutions and intelligence provide clients the foresight they need to create an enduring competitive advantage.At Kroll,our values define who we are and how we partner with clients and communities.Le

123、arn more at .M&A advisory,capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United States are provided by Kroll Securities,LLC(member FINRA/SIPC).M&A advisory,capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United Kingdom are provided by Kroll Securities Ltd.,which is autho

124、rized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority(FCA).Valuation Advisory Services in India are provided by Kroll Advisory Private Limited(formerly,Duff&Phelps India Private Limited),under a category 1 merchant banker license issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.2023 Kroll,LLC.A

125、ll rights reserved.David AlthoffGlobal Head of Diversified Industrial M&AChicago+1 312 697 Dr.Howard E.JohnsonManaging Director,Canadian M&A AdvisoryToronto+1 416 597 Andreas StoecklinHead of Corporate Finance,EMEAFrankfurt+49 697 191 Jeffrey McNamaraManaging Director,Diversified Industrials M&AChic

126、ago+1 312 697 Stephen BurtGlobal Head of M&A Advisory .Chicago+1 312 697 Dafydd EvansManaging Director,M&A AdvisoryLondon+44 207 089 Mark KwiloszHead of North American Automotive M&A AdvisoryChicago+1 312 697 Alexandre PierantoniManaging Director,M&A AdvisorySao Paolo+55 11 3192 David LuManaging Director,M&A AdvisoryShanghai+86 21 6032 20

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