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Similarweb:2023针对不可预测圣诞季的数据驱动规划指南(英文版)(21页).pdf

1、State of the Online Food&Grocery Industry 2022|1The Data-Driven Planning Guide for an Unpredictable Holiday SeasonHow to optimize spend in Q4 and beyond2023REPORTPre-Holiday Planning 2023|22023 Trends&Consumer Behavior RetrospectiveDigital consumer buying trends continued to evolve rapidly in 2023 a

2、s consumers further deepened their engagement in shopping online and using new technologies to discover and purchase products.Here are some of the key behaviors and trends that have become apparent in 2023:Consumers are still willing to spend:Consumers are spending on non-essential goods and service

3、s,even during tough economic times and despite rising living costs,inflation,and interest rates.This is evident in the continued growth of Prime Day,in which product views and total revenue increased by 9%and 8%,respectively,compared to the previous year.Consumers are becoming strategic shoppers,exe

4、rcising more caution:They are taking the time to compare prices even on Prime Day deals.Average order value and Average Basket Sizes have suggested that consumers are more price-conscious and are looking for the best deals.This also brings to light the challenge that brands are facing regarding loya

5、lty and retention.Private label brands are gaining ground:Amazon brands represented 8%of all sales in value during Prime Day 2023.Price sensitivity drives consumers to try cheaper alternatives or even dupes rather than brand names because they are interested in value.Brands must prioritize their D2C

6、 channels and memberships to maximize retention and increase loyalty.The rise of social commerce:Social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok played an increasingly important role in the shopping process in 2023.Consumers used these platforms to discover new products,learn about brands,and make

7、purchases directly from the app.Similarweb Digital Data shows that social commerce traffic increased by 25%in 2023,with TikTok contributing to a 28%year-over-year(YoY)increase in product views for the popular Beauty&Personal Care category.New players are elevating the shopping experience:Newcomers l

8、ike Temu and Shein are leveraging Next Generation Manufacturing and digital behavioral insights to target their audiences and meet niche consumer demand.While offering a similar customer experience to social commerce,they provide the added convenience of a shopping app,thus increasing customer reten

9、tion and loyalty.Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|3Despite the economic uncertainty that has pervaded 2023,consumers are still willing to spend but are exercising more caution in their spending.This is reflected in the increased adoption of private labels and the Dupes trend,in which consumers are increasi

10、ngly adopting cheap alternatives to premium or luxury products.Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|4Prime Day showed shoppers being more conservative with their money in 2023 vs.last year amidst the rising cost of living,with smaller basket sizes and average order value(AOV)Prime Day Average Order Value and C

11、art SizeUS,A,Desktop,Mobile Web,Mobile App,July 2023CategoryJuly Prime Day AOVAOV Change vs.Last Prime DayJuly Prime DayAverage Cart SizeAverage Cart Size Change vs.Last Prime DayOverall$52.28-13%1.48-21%Home&Kitchen$53.26-12%1.225-11%Electronics$79.83-7%1.145-6%Toys&Games$31.17-4%1.28-15%Health&Hou

12、sehold$27.15-5%1.27-8%Beauty&Personal Care$26.03-5%1.28-8%Clothing,Shoes&Jewelry$34.69-9%1.335-11%Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|5Amazons private label brands held a 17.4%share of all products sold on Amazon in December 2022-vs 13.2%in December 2021,resulting in a$1.2B revenue increase for Amazon.Consume

13、rs are opting for white label dupes of staple brands,driving a 17.4%share for Amazons private label brands among all products sold on the platform during the peak holiday seasonPre-Holiday Planning 2023|6Zooming in:What is the“dupes”trend?“Dupes”(short for duplicates)are a cheap alternative to premi

14、um or luxury products that do not replicate trademarked logos or details.“Dupes”Exploded on TikTok,driving.This converted into increased consumer demand for more affordable alternative products,with over 1.52 million Google searches in the US in the last 12 months leading up to August 2023.This tren

15、d started in Beauty but extended to other categories-even Electronics.As expected,searches for“dupes”on Amazon soared during the holiday season in 2022 as well,with sustained YoY growth,which stabilized at around+350%YoY.Consumers,especially Gen Z&Alpha,are expected to continue searching at this rat

16、e throughout the Q4 holiday season.20222023Search Volume for Dupes Over Time,Google&Amazon On-Site-SearchUS,Desktop,Mobile Web&Mobile App for A,Sep 2022-Aug 2023Holidays 2022Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|7Temu launched onto the ecommerce scene in 2022,selling a wide selection of good quality“dupes”at lo

17、w prices.While many similar platforms are available,the main differentiator for Temu is its competitive pricing strategy.Temu can deliver affordable pricing on a wide range of quality products thanks to its Next-Gen Manufacturing model(NGM).As a result of Temus agility,website visits to have soared,

18、eclipsing visit rates to almost threefold.Zooming in:T Capitalizing on the“dupes”trend Total web visits to T and AUS,Desktop&Mobile Web,Jan 2022-Aug 2023Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|8In Electronics,consumers increasingly opt for White Label options or older models:Prime Day bestsellers in the Electroni

19、cs category were all priced below$90Top Products From Prime Electronics SaleUS,A,Desktop,Mobile Web,Mobile AppProductBrandPriceApple AirPods(2nd Generation)Wireless Earbuds with Lightning Charging Case Included.Over 24 Hours of Battery Life,Effortless Setup.Bluetooth Headphones for iPhoneApple$89.99

20、Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K Max streaming device,Wi-Fi 6,Alexa Voice Remote(includes TV controls)Amazon$24.99Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice Remote(includes TV controls),free&live TV without cable or satellite,HD streaming deviceAmazon$16.99Echo Dot(5th Gen,2022 release)|With bigger vibrant sound,helpful

21、 routines and Alexa|CharcoalAmazon$22.99Fire TV Stick 4K,brilliant 4K streaming quality,TV and smart home controls,free and live TVAmazon$22.99Echo Dot(5th Gen,2022 release)with clock|Smart speaker with clock and Alexa|Cloud BlueAmazon$29.99Introducing Echo Pop|Full sound compact smart speaker with

22、Alexa|CharcoalAmazon$17.99Wall Charger,Surge Protector,QINLIANF 5 Outlet Extender with 4 USB Charging Ports(4.8A Total)3-Sided 1680J Power Strip Multi Plug Adapter Spaced for Home Travel Office(3U1C)QINLIANF$15.97Apple AirTag 4 PackApple$88.49Kindle Paperwhite(8 GB)Now with a 6.8 display and adjusta

23、ble warm light BlackKindle$89.99Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|9Reflective of their increased price sensitivity,consumers will be looking for better deals,yet the deep discounts they have come to expect in previous years have yet to be mirrored in 2023.We expect shallower discounting to extend into the h

24、oliday season as retailers and manufacturers are squeezed by increasing costs,ongoing supply chain disruption,and inflation.Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|10Retailers are offering shallower discounts in 2023 vs.2022Amazon 2023 Prime Day data reflects the broad range of price discounting that retailers ar

25、e employing to drive volume amid shaky consumer confidence.Typically the Electronics category sees the steepest discounts on Prime Day,with consumers likely to wait for a discount from the manufacturers Suggested Retail Price(MSRP)before purchasing them.2023 has seen much more conservative discounts

26、 on electronics than those that consumers are used to seeing,likely due to the rising Cost of Goods,rising inflation,and enduring supply chain issues post-pandemic.Conversely,in Q4 2023,we expect to witness the deepest discounts in the Clothing,Shoes&Jewelry category(-32%last Prime Days)due to a slo

27、wdown of demand and a surplus in stock.Holiday Planning 2023Average Discount by Category&Price PointCategory$100Clothing,Shoes&Jewelry32%(vs.14%Last Year)-Video Games25%(vs.17%Last Year)-Toys&Games18%(vs.13%Last Year)-Electronics17%(vs.29%Last Year)7%(vs.26%Last Year)Beauty&Personal Care15%-Amazon D

28、evices13%19%(vs.28%Last Year)Home&Kitchen13%(vs.11%Last Year)16%Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|11Holiday Planning 2023What could holiday spend look like?Amazon is poised for record holiday sales despite economic challengesIn 2023,Amazon is expected to see record-breaking holiday sales despite the challen

29、ging economic climate.The companys revenue is up nearly 25%year-to-date,with total unit sales up 8%.This firm growth is being driven by several factors,including the convenience of online shopping,the increasing popularity of private label brands,and the growing adoption of new technologies.Amazon i

30、s well-positioned to weather the storm and continue to grow its business thanks to its strong track record of innovation and customer focus.Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|12Which brands will consumers search for the most?The most searched brands over the holidays are likely to be a mix of the usual culpr

31、its and some interesting standouts.Well see tech-heavy hitters like Apple,Sony,and Samsung,as well as Amazons brands(Ring,Amazon Alexa),which tend to offer significant discounts during the holiday season.With the growth in Home Appliances likely to continue this year,expect brands like Ninja or Kitc

32、henaid to be among the most popular items.Amazon continues to be a major destination for fashion,and therefore,clothing and footwear products by brands like Nike,Carhartt,Adidas,Skechers,and Crocs,which retail at a mid-range price point,could be among the most popular searches.Holiday Planning 2023M

33、ost Searched Holiday BrandsBrandsIncreased During 2022 Holiday SeasonIncreased During 2023 Prime DayAppleCarharttLEGONintendoAmazonPokemonCrocsSamsungXboxRingSamsoniteBLINKRobloxNikePhilips HueAdidasKitchenaidNinjaSonyPre-Holiday Planning 2023|13Which categories are likely to see the greatest lift?A

34、s a return to more pre-pandemic behaviors persists,we see double-digit growth in seasonal staples such as Engagement Rings,Blazers,Espresso Machines,and Luggage.Conversely,a significant slowdown in the growth of television sales is slated to continue into the holiday season due to several factors,in

35、cluding:The increasing popularity of streaming servicesThe rising cost of television components and supply chain issuesThe economic downturn leading some consumers to cut back on spending on non-essential itemsCategoryHolidays 2022YTD 2023 Rev.YTD YoY Rev.Clothing,Shoes&JewelryEngagement Rings$72M$1

36、74M+29.47%Blazers$41M$101M+32.40%Watches$141M$281M+13.60%Luggage$712M$2.25BN+41.41%ElectronicsEarbuds$653M$11.5BN-0.67%Televisions$428M$679M-15.52%Computers$6.59BN$114.2BN+9.83%Wearables$438M$1.1BN+3.85%Home&KitchenSofas$306M$712M+19.79%Ice Cream Machines$36M$118M+20.79%Espresso Machines$144M$284M+3

37、0.09%Vacuums$1.29BN$2.9BN+17.74%Holiday Planning 2023Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|14How did top brands discount on Prime Day?Prime Day saw steeply lower discounting than the previous year across the board,with disparities between different consumer goods categories.Top brands in the Apparel&Jewelry cat

38、egory,like Levis,Crocs,and Under Armour,offered lower discounts than the previous year.At the same time,Amazon Essentials tried to capture market share by offering competitive discounts compared to its peers in the category.Interestingly,some brands,such as Amazons Blink or Waterpik,actually played

39、with their prices in the days leading up to Prime Day,with the displayed price of their bestsellers being higher than the avg.price in the preceding 28 days.This strategy drove revenue for these brands,accelerating sales velocity once they implemented discounts.Average Discount on Prime Day for Top

40、Selling Brands/BestsellersElectronicsHome&KitchenHealth&HouseholdApparel&JewelryAmazon-1%(vs.-31%Last Year)Amazon Basics-4%(vs.-36%Last Year)Orgain-5%(vs.-42%Last Year)Amazon Essentials-26%(vs.-14%Last Year)Apple-5%(vs.-20%Last Year)Black&Decker-6%(vs.-21%Last Year)Crest-5%(vs.-42%Last Year)Crocs-7%

41、(vs.-42%Last Year)Blink+7%(vs.-22%Last Year)Bentgo-6%(vs.-11%Last Year)Waterpik+9%(vs.-14%Last Year)Levis-25%(vs.-40%Last Year)INSIGNIA+6%(vs.-23%Last Year)Zinus+1%(vs.-45%Last Year)Vital Proteins+13%(vs.-33%Last Year)Under Armour-10%(vs.-26%Last Year)Holiday Planning 2023Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|1

42、5Holiday spending begins around Halloween in mid-October,steadily rising and peaking during the weekend of Thanksgiving,Black Friday,and Cyber Monday,after which it remains elevated but at lower levels.Critically,spending levels only return to pre-Q4 levels in the 3rd week of January,with consumers

43、continuing to buy a wide range of electronic items in particular.Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|16Holiday Planning 2023-When to SpendHoliday revenue is poised to stand at 35.3%higher than last year,with demand beginning to rise meaningfully in mid-October.Advertisers should prepare timely campaigns to co

44、incide with this uptick in search and conversion.Furthermore,as in previous years,we expect that demand for some categories will not return to pre-Q4 levels till the end of January 2024,highlighting opportunities to drive advertising and discounting in January 2024 to increase sales volume.ForecastS

45、tart of Holiday Uptick at Halloween2024Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|17Looking Ahead to January 2024-When to SpendIn line with previous years,as consumers kick off the new year,we expect to see sustained demand for cold-weather items such as blankets,jackets,and cold and flu remedies,carrying into 2024

46、from the 2023 holiday season.Additionally,this year,we anticipate sustained demand for a few additional items through January 2024.Advertisers who ensure that their January marketing spend is as ideally distributed as their Q4 2023 spend will stand to reap this opportunity for revenue in a tradition

47、ally quieter month.Products With Sustained Increase in Search Volume From October 2022 Through January 2023(Ranked)1.Netflix13.Alarm2.Calendar14.Treadmill3.Acetaminophen15.Keurig4.Lingerie16.Keyboard5.Blender17.TV6.Mucinex18.Microwave7.Logitech19.Desk8.Humidifier20.Chromebook9.Alarm Clock21.Dutch Ov

48、en10.3D Printer22.Espresso Machine11.Kindle Unlimited23.Rice Cooker12.TV Stand24.Leather JacketSource:Similarweb Shopper Intelligence,US,A,Desktop,Mobile Web,Mobile App,October 2022-January 2023Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|18Social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok have played an increasingly i

49、mportant role in the shopping process in 2023.Consumers use these platforms to discover new products,learn about brands,and purchase directly from the app.Similarweb Digital Data shows that social commerce traffic increased by 25%in 2023,with TikTok contributing to a 28%YoY increase in product views

50、 for the Beauty&Personal Care category in particular.This movement is effective in other categories as well.Crocs,a footwear brand long considered unfashionable and purely functional,leveraged social commerce to redesign its brand image and target a younger demographic.As a result,YoY search for the

51、 brand increased steadily in 2023,highlighting the potential lift in traffic that investing in Social Commerce Media can bring in Q4 2023.Search Volume over time for“crocs”related keywords,Worldwide,Desktop&Mobile WebInvest in Social Media platforms for driving awareness through to conversion during

52、 Q4Pre-Holiday Planning 2023|19An increase in cross-browsing behavior is expected in 2023Holiday shoppers cross-browsing Amazon and other marketplaces tend to flock to other major retailers,often hunting for the best deals.Cross-browsing behavior like this tends to peak during the holidays,even more

53、 so given the tightening of consumers purchasing power.As competition between retailers across multiple categories increases,monitoring cross-browsing behavior in your specific category becomes critical.For instance,Costco was a growing competitor of Amazons Home&Kitchen category during the holiday

54、season in 2022,although not in 2021.Holiday Planning 2023WebsiteHome&KitchenElectronicsApparel&JewelryToys&GamesBeauty&Personal CRetailers With Increased Shopper OverlapHoliday 22 v.Lead-up PeriodPre-Holiday Planning 2023|20See what your competitors are doing this holiday seasonMeet with an industry expert todayState of the Online Food&Grocery Industry 2022|21See what your competitors are doing this holiday seasonMeet with an industry expert today

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