硅谷银行：2023年第三季度资产管理经济报告（英文版）（32页）.pdf

1、3rd Quarter 2023SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Fiscal PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and PerformanceThe Federal Reserve has remained hawkish in its tone toward rates.T

2、he Fed acknowledges that while progress has been made,the full effects of tightening have yet to be felt.The labor market and GDP growth remain solid,but there have been early indications of weakening from historically high levels.Tighter financial conditions and commercial real estate concerns have

3、 complicated the Feds future path.The challenge for the Fed is how it will prioritize inflation with financial stability.Growth is expected to be resilient later in 2023,with market consensus showing expectations for 1.5%for Q3 2023 and 0.8%for Q4 2023.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0823-0282AD-0831243H

4、ome sales have slowed significantly.For 2023,the market will be focused on the impact that multiyear highs in mortgage rates could continue to have on home sales.Labor markets are still strong but may be cooling.The Fed has raised borrowing costs aggressively with the aim of slowing the economy and

5、inflation,which ultimately affects the job market.The Fed delivered its first pause in rate hikes for the cycle.The Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)will continue to monitor incoming data and inflation and will consider if additional policy firming is appropriate.Inflation has softened from multid

6、ecade highs.The US and Europe look to be near the end of the rate hike cycle while persistent inflation is expected to force rates higher in the UK.The US Dollar(USD)reverses the gains it registered during the first three quarters of 2022.An especially strong equity market was a key driver of the US