Lazard：2024年全球经济展望报告（英文版）（14页）.pdf

1、GlobalOutlook2024Ronald TempleChief Market StrategistGlobal Outlook 202422023 gave us:The highest inflation and sharpest monetary policy tightening in four decades.US resilience as wealth effects and full employment drove consumer spending.Weak Chinese growth on the back of a real estate and consume

2、r confidence crisis.Lethargy in the Eurozone as rate hikes and export weakness buffeted economies.UK stagflation with growth below 0.5%and inflation over 7%.Geopolitical turmoil and humanitarian disasters in Ukraine and the Middle East.More evidence of climate change as temperatures hit new records.

3、The outlook for 2024 stands in stark contrast to 2023 with:Rate hikes likely shifting to cuts as inflation falls to 2%.The Fed engineering a“soft landing”avoiding US recession.China sentiment improving despite the ongoing housing overhang.The Eurozone and UK teetering on the brink of recession as st

4、icky inflation precludes easing.Japan exiting yield curve control and negative interest rates.The Ukraine war dragging on and Western tensions with China ratcheting higher.US elections becoming the focal point as a determinant of the geopolitical trajectory.Global Outlook 20243Introduction The globa

5、l economic landscape is in flux.The sharpest mone-tary policy tightening in four decades slowed growth less than ex-pected,but long and variable lags between policy changes and economic impact suggest recession risk remains pronounced.In recent decades,the United States and China have been the two p

6、rimary economic locomotives.In 2023,US growth surprised on the upside as consumers depleted much of the over$2.25 tril-lion of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic.Going forward,consumers will increasingly rely on wage gains and,to a lesser degree,Federal Reserve easing to support spending