麦肯锡：澳大利亚在全球锂市场的潜力（2023）（英文版）（10页）.pdf

1、June 2023Metals&Mining PracticeAustralias potential in the lithium marketDemand for lithium is expected to rise rapidly in the future,and Australia has a unique opportunity to make the most of it.by Sergey Alyabyev,Murray Edstein,Aleksandra Krauze,and Mads Yde JensenGlobal demand growth in lithium-b

2、ased power offers a significantbut limited-timeopportunity for the Australian resources sector as countries and companies are establishing their roles in the batteries value chain,and decisions made now are determining how the global industry will look in the 2030s.Demand for lithium-based power wil

3、l rise rapidly with the growth of the electric-vehicle(EV)market.Forecasts by Tesla suggest the company will need approximately 1,000 kilotons of lithium carbonate equivalent(LCE)per year by 2030,or 16 times its 2022 needs and 30 percent more than the world currently produces.1 Overall,the global pa

4、ssenger EV market,which relies on lithium-based batteries,is expected to grow annually by 26 percent through 20302(Exhibit 1).Australia is already the worlds largest producer of spodumenethe base material for lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonateand has the second largest lithium ore reserves glob

5、ally.3 For now,however,Australia has limited capability and capacity to 1“Tesla 2023 investor day,”YouTube,March 1,2023.2“What is an EV?,”McKinsey,February 6,2023.3 Nnamdi Anyadike,“New discoveries:Raising the profile of lithium in Australia,”Mining Technology,December 5,2022;“These countries are dr

6、iving lithium production,”McKinsey,May 25,2022.Exhibit 1Projected battery-electric-vehicle(BEV)production by scenario,million unitsProjected refned lithium demand by scenario,million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent(LCE)1Indicative;doesnt include hybrids,commercial vehicles,or 2 and 3 wheelers t