牛津经济研究院：2022年澳大利亚大宗商品预测报告（英文版）（33页）.pdf

1、AEMO Commodities Scenario Forecasts FY2023 AEMO COMMODITIES SCENARIO FORECASTS 2022-23:REPORT PREPARED FOR THE AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR FINAL 9TH SEPTEMBER 2022 AEMO Commodities Scenario Forecasts FY2023 1 09 September 2022 All data shown in tables and charts are BIS Oxford Economics own da

2、ta,except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes,and are copyright BIS Oxford Economics Pty Ltd.This report is produced for the Australian Energy Market Operator as input into their suite of energy forecasting reports.This report is not to be relied upon for any other purposes.The modelling a

3、nd results presented here are based on information provided by third parties,upon which BIS Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith.Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.To discuss the report further

4、please contact:Ruchira Ray:.au BIS Oxford Economics Pty Ltd Level 6,7 Macquarie Place,Sydney,2000,NSW Tel:+61 2 8458 4200 AEMO Commodities Scenario Forecasts FY2023 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary.3 1.Introduction.7 2.Key economic and climate Assumptions.8 2.1 Near Term Assumptions.8 3.Commodi

5、ties price Forecasts:Step Change.10 3.1 Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasts.10 3.2 Newcastle Thermal Coal Price Forecasts.11 3.3 LNG netback prices Wallumbilla.11 4.Commodities Price Forecasts:Alternative scenarios.13 4.1 Brent Crude Oil Price Forecasts.13 4.2 Newcastle Thermal Coal Price Forecasts.14 4

6、.3 LNG Netback Price(Wallumbilla)Forecasts.14 Appendix A:Oxford Economics GEM Model Forecasts.16 Appendix B:Foreign Exchange Rates.19 Appendix C:Estimating Newcastle Thermal Coal and LNG Netback Price.20 Appendix D:Benchmarking.22 Short-Term Forecast Benchmarking.22 Long-Term Forecast Benchmarking.2