M&T银行&威明顿信托：2026年资本市场展望报告：经济实验：贸易、劳动力与债务审视（英文版）（44页）.pdf

1、 2026 M&T Bank and its affiliates and subsidiaries.All rights reserved.1 2026Capital Markets ForecastEconomic ExperimentationTrade,Labor,and Debt Under the MicroscopeTrTrade01AiArtificial intelligence01DDiversification03CCybersecurity01CrCryptocurrency03IImmigration02IrInterest rates03GGold032026Cap

2、ital Markets ForecastSSmall cap04PPortfolio04HyHyperscalers02TeTechnology02TaTariffs01LLabor02DeDebt03OOutlook045THEME 01The Reshoring Experiment Tariffs and Smart Manufacturing 15THEME 02The Labor ExperimentReplacing Workers with AI23THEME 03The Debt ExperimentInvesting in a Debt Cycle33CONCLUSIONT

3、he OutlookFrom Lab to Portfolio Reality 2026 M&T Bank and its affiliates and subsidiaries.All rights reserved.2 Successful investing involves both art and science.The former is the“je ne sais quoi”that comes from an effective mixture of experience,intuition,and humility.You are lucky if you have it

4、and,if you dont,there is little you can do to acquire it anytime soon.The science of investing,by contrast,is available to all through the careful study of events and their antecedents.Fortunately,history rhymes and through the thoughtful framing of key economic factors and study of their effects,we

5、 can gain a clearer sense of what economic trends may hold in the future.Experimentation is normalPeriodically,there is a deviation from economic trends or policy changes so significant that it can be analogized only to economic experimentation.We find ourselves in such a time todaymaking history le

6、ss relevant and calling on a deeper understanding of macro theory and current observations to predict where the economy and markets may be headed.Critical to our inquiry is appreciating that experimentation is a featurenot a bugof an evolving economy.Much like science itself,there cannot be progress