ICCT：愿景2050：2025年全球汽车零排放转型最新进展报告（英文版）（44页）.pdf

1、JANUARY 2026Vision 2050Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2025ARIJIT SEN,JACOB TETER,SUTTON KREUTZFELDT,AND JOSH MILLERACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis study was generously supported by the Crux Alliance.The authors thank all colleagues who contributed to this study,with special thanks to S

2、tefan Walzer-Goldfeld and Gabriel Alvarez for developments to ICCTs Roadmap model and Ilma Fadil,Irem Kok,and Yihao Xie for providing supporting data and helpful reviews.International Council on Clean Transportation 1500 K Street NW,Suite 650 Washington,DC 20005communicationstheicct.org|www.theicct.

3、org|TheICCT 2026 International Council on Clean Transportation(ID 519)iICCT REPORT|UPDATE ON THE GLOBAL ZERO-EMISSION VEHICLE TRANSITION IN 2025EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDecarbonizing the road transport sector,which contributes almost one-fifth of global carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions,is essential for achievin

4、g Paris Agreement goals to limit warming to well below 2 C.Transitioning to zero-emission vehicles(ZEVs)is the most promising pathway to decarbonize road transport,and this shift is now backed by significant policy and market momentum.This study is the fourth iteration of the International Council o

5、n Clean Transportations annual update on the global ZEV transition.This report projects the impact of global ZEV policies and market developments on vehicle sales,energy use,and emissions through 2050.In addition to updating the baseline scenarios in our previous studies(Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2

6、024),we model three distinct pathways:a Baseline 2025 scenario that considers adopted policies as of August 2025,a Momentum scenario that incorporates non-binding ZEV targets and proposed policies,and an Ambitious scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement.Our findings quantify the substantial impact