1、 !#$%&()*+,!国金证券研究所 分析师：苏晨（执业 S1130522010001） 联系人：叶思嘉 联系人：鲍秋宇 回暖趋势已定，把握节奏与结构?#$%&%()*+,-./012345(-6789:;6)?5A*(B!CDEFGH=DIFGHJKLMNOPQRKLSTU*VWXYZ_a?23bcd=efg h fijklmnb(opRV9:qrVstuvwxyz|=gijklmj(KLSTOPf“”45wbcU%&%(QRKLOSTVstt)*78Ow,-.9(BU-x*x(t/(KLSO.(o+(t)*78:U(zM6(=j(:)*(78Y :=vY(B23wYOwU_:!#(-67

2、8$678(%&(&a?()?*KL+U:=,-./!01234JVs56tj=78)X9:(;?gABCxyDXOwE=FGUHIJKLM:=xyw=qNOPkwQR*uvSNT(Ug:_F$LMxyOw .UV-678:$*(W6XY=ZqVst(A!_Q=/*ab=+cdw?%ej:f(ghi54jw(k=lXJXmno$pURVq(BC(:wrs(LMtuvwexuv(yvtzYFef(|_(tur#(E/“YI(Ituyr%=“GN34(tu”12=(r U(V TOw34=*x2(1y(:2X(jxyw;6()KL+!=%&%V(BCXY%=V“dw(yw=vtzYF!&%!=:$

3、*(A“dw!&%=NT:BCtuvwexuv(vtzYF!%=(V TOw34(:t1p!=V”1)7=#%(F$xyOw=$PkwQR!%=(V:t1w(|:a%&=/VBC (Fxyww%!=o!R:VST:wE(qxy%=yFxyDXOwE(wwFG/%=5Pkrw/NT=%#=a*iV=KL+()?$M%=%HI%&()*%&?&#$&#$%W!V%&%+,:15%&%!W%V%&%“-*;?Yxi;R#!W!VYjlmR(A:!W!#V8-tBA?:=dw|!W!VCg-DR“”)!WWaXoXtZfWoWoN6MdNaQoMnNoMnPlOrQmOjMsQsRbRmMuNNZmQ

4、wOwMtQtM#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!W!&VCg-c5!W!7VCg.R5!%W!VCgE.“cFw)!%W%&V*x%&%!)Xq.qVs!%W%!V%&%+G_HtI*!%W%VxyJV/KLM.Q%&%3!%3%&!W%Vlm296!#W%VlmtuI NOO z!PQ!#W%#VxyJV/KLM.Q%&%3!%3%&!W%V%&%!y(-%&!5%#0!&W%&V%&%!y(-%&!5%0!&W%7VV/KNR N(S)c1!&W%VTqO)7Uo V!&W&V(x“”)!&W!VRV-W(jX:YZN!7 W%V=-)ONN:n$*x0%&!7 W V h:n$*x0%

5、&!7 W Vg h:n$*x0%&!W#V%&%_1-=I-n$!W V(xyV/K!W&V(lmxyaZwJb%&W 7V8-1(ONN:r0%&!%&W V1nc:d(%&W&Vde(fgLh r:%!W!Vhi=jkl2mRV%!W%VNnopqfr:s!t%(0%&!%!W VuvwRV_cNQx0%&!%!W Vo!“.Rq%W#Vo!“.%&!:1%W V!mRq%W&V!m_%W 7Vo!fQWX%&!%C!8fQ,%W V/OOwwK%W#&V%&%M yzmaZwKh%W#!V/YjlmqN=xywLM.Q%&%3!%3%&%#W#%Vg)a?)?Vs%W#Vg)a?QVs

6、%W#Va*i*x.Vs%W#Vya*iTx-“”%?#$%&()!#$%&()*+,!1 1?!=#$#$%&%&%VV)*+)*+5/01A*5/01A*(KLKL|)|)#$%&%,-.()*+23/0145(-6789:;6)?5A*URV%&%t-xd|p(.#78/Gw(.qr+789:“x3xg-U%&%y+,*-v:15%&%!(RV9:W6QRKLX(%&!:1#&0 :U“xW6QR29:9:(T 7 CyRVz_cO(ftu(A6?UWW!VV%&%&%+,+,:15:15%&%!&%!WW%VV%&%&%“-“-*;-./01234-5678019:;-./012