【中信期货】资产配置纪要：金属、权益、外汇-260101（18页）.pdf

1、重要提示：重要提示：本报告非本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2026/1/1 Asset Allocation Note:Metals,Equity and Forex 资产配置资产配置纪要：金属、权益、外汇纪要：金属、权益、外汇 摘要摘要 Abstract Metals:Recent price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and profit-taking activities.In the medium to long term,some non-ferrous metals still face supply constraints,and i

4、nvestors are also turning to precious metals to hedge risks such as unregulated fiscal expansion.Therefore,the upward trend logic remains intact.Equity Indices:The recent consecutive rise of the Shanghai Composite Index may be attributed to the concentrated subscriptions of A500 ETFs.However,substan

5、tial bullish momentum has not yet converged,and there is a risk of a subsequent pullback.It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy of dividend-oriented equities plus long positions on CSI 500 Index futures(IC),and patiently wait for the Spring Rally.Forex:A weaker US dollar,a rising A-share ma

6、rket and concentrated forex settlement at the year-end have driven the USD/CNY exchange rate to break below the 7.0 threshold.Nevertheless,the central bank may curb the risk of excessive RMB appreciation in the short term.The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to trade within the range of 6.87.0 in 2