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景顺投资(Invesco):2026年全球资产配置全景展望报告(中译版)(32页).pdf

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1、November 2025 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only 1 Global Asset Allocation 2026 Outlook Quarterly update from Invescos Strategy&Insights Team 9 November 2025 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only.November 2025 For professional/institutiona

2、l/qualified/accredited investors only 2 The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2026 Outlook We expect the global economy to accelerate during 2026.Coupled with Fed easing and a weaker dollar,we expect this to favour cyclical assets.We reduce government bonds and investment grade credit to slightly

3、Underweight within our Model Asset Allocation,while raising high yield to Neutral.We add AAA-rated CLOs(collateralised loan obligations)to our framework,preferring it to cash within the cash equivalents category.Among regions,we continue to favour emerging market and European assets.Model asset allo

4、cation In our view:Commodities should benefit as the global economy improves.We stay at the Maximum.Real estate(REITS)may benefit as rates fall and economies accelerate.We remain Overweight.Bank loans offer an attractive risk-reward trade-off.We stay at the Maximum.Corporate high yield(HY)spreads ar

5、e tight but may remain so.We increase to Neutral.Government bond yield direction will be mixed.We reduce to slightly Underweight.Corporate investment grade(IG)has a similar profile to government bonds.We reduce to Underweight.Equities have rebounded and we remain Underweight(Underweight the US,Overw

6、eight non-US).Cash equivalents Underweight,with the newly introduced AAA-rated CLOs preferred to cash.Gold may be helped by a soft dollar but geopolitics are improving,and it is expensive.We remain at Zero.Regionally,we favour Europe and EM.US dollar is likely to weaken and we maintain the partial h

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根据《Global Asset Allocation 2026 Outlook》报告,以下是全文关键点: 1. 预计2026年全球经济将加速增长,美联储将放宽政策,美元走弱,有利于周期性资产。 2. 模型资产配置中,减少政府债券和投资级信用债的权重,提高高收益债至中性,并添加AAA级CLOs。 3. 优先考虑新兴市场资产和欧洲资产,看好中国、日本REITs、工业商品和欧洲银行贷款。 4. 预计美元将继续走弱,维持对日元的部分对冲。 5. 预计全球经济增长将加速,周期性资产价格将上涨,风险资产和地区偏好增加。 6. 预计2026年通胀将上升,美联储将继续放宽政策,部分欧洲央行接近结束宽松周期。 7. 预计德国和日本将实施财政刺激政策,但美国可能不会。 8. 预计风险资产(如非美股票、REITs和商品)将表现良好,银行贷款等防御性资产也将表现良好。 9. 预计美国股市估值过高,而中国股市估值合理,看好欧洲股市。 10. 预计黄金和比特币价格过高,工业商品价格合理。
哪些资产将受益?" "全球经济加速,投资策略有何变化?" 哪些资产最值得期待?"
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