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麦肯锡:2025年全球材料行业研究报告(英文版)(54页).pdf

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1、Global Materials Perspective2025October 20252Global Materials Perspective 2025About this reportThe Global Materials Perspective 2025 is produced by McKinseys Global Energy&Materials Practice.Building on the previous years report,this years Perspective explores materials demand across three energy tr

2、ansition scenarios(as defined in our Global Energy Perspective 2025)as well as three supply scenarios,based on asset-level data modeled by MineSpans.Our aim is to provide insight into the changing availability,affordability,and sustainability of materials,including those that are critical to the ene

3、rgy transition and the expansion of digital infrastructure.While the materials industry spans a broad range of subindustriesincluding metals and mining,building materials(concrete and cement,glass,and more),plastics,and pulp and paperthis report focuses primarily on metals and mining,which can be ca

4、tegorized along the following long-term demand trends driven by the energy transition:Materials for which demand is only to a small extent driven by the speed of the energy transition and that are consequently trending in line with the growth of global GDP and the growing middle class(for example,st

5、eel andaluminum)Materials for which demand is largely and positively affected by the energy transition because the materials are required in one or several low-carbon technologies compared with conventional technologies and are therefore frequently growing faster than in the previous decade(for exam

6、ple,copper,lithium,and rare earth elements REEs)Materials for which demand is largely and negatively affected by the energy transition because these materials are fundamental to conventional technologies,which are likely to be gradually phased out in the coming decades(with thermal coal a prime exam

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根据文章内容,以下是关键点的概括: 1. **行业概况**:2024年,材料行业收入略有下降,主要受金属和矿业收入下降6%的影响,但整体盈利能力保持强劲,达到1.3万亿美元。 2. **供需情况**:预计到2035年,材料需求将保持强劲,尤其是能源转型材料,但增速放缓。同时,全球供需缺口正在缩小,但区域不平衡仍然存在。 3. **资本支出**:为实现供需平衡,2035年前需要约4.7万亿美元的资本支出,以及270GW的新增电力容量。 4. **生产率**:矿业生产率正在反弹,但面临成本上升和劳动力短缺的挑战。 5. **创新影响**:需求端和供应端创新可能显著影响供需平衡和边际成本。 6. **资本市场表现**:过去十年,金属和矿业资本市场表现强劲,但未来表现取决于公司运营决策。 7. **未来展望**:成功需要抓住增长机会,提高生产率,并实现可持续解决方案。
**金属需求趋势** **能源转型材料展望** **供应链集中度分析**
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