汇丰HSBC：全球电动汽车发展路线图：美国电动化进程遭遇重大阻力-250904（中译版）(58页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.US:Government policies not supportive of BEV investment or adoption.We have reflected the clear policy shift away from EVs,he

2、nce the cut to our US forecasts.We move to being in line with the EV Volumes lowered forecasts a c20ppt cut to our 2030 penetration forecast.We think there are three main reasons why EV adoption is likely to slow in the US.Ending of EV credits.As part of the Big Beautiful Bill(H.R.1)passed by the US

3、 Senate on 1 July,the EV tax credits of up to USD7.5k per vehicle will be terminated post September 2025.This may lead to a pre-buy effect,but we expect EV demand to come under pressure as it appears unlikely that OEMs will step in to fund the purchase subsidy gap.Relaxation of CAFE fines.Also in th

4、e bill,OEMs now face no major regulatory pressure to drive EV adoption as the civil penalty for a violation of the CAFE standards is now zero(source:congress.gov).OEMs are pivoting away from BEV plans.Both Ford and GM look to be rediverting and delaying investment in EVs.Most recently VW have announ

5、ced a pause in ID.4 production in their US Chattanooga plant due to weak market demand(electrek,2 Sep 25).We think the burden is now on US consumer preference to drive penetration,which is challenging given the natural impediments to adoption(larger vehicles,longer driving distances,sparce charging

6、network).To our minds the risks to our US forecasts remain to the downside.EU:Rising penetration creates breathing space on 2027 CO2 penalties.We make a second consecutive increase to our European forecasts as YTD growth in most market markets has been particularly strong.Interestingly,in most cases