1、2025 Mid-Year Outlook Macro,Equities,Retail,Funds,RMBS,CMBS,and CLO Insights Authors Tajinder Dhillon Tajinder.D Dewi John Dewi.J Detlef Glow Detlef.G Luke Lu Luke.L Robin Marshall Robin.M Jharonne Martis Jharonne.M Irene Shi Irene.S 2025 Mid-Year Outlook 2 Contents Executive Summary.3 Section 1 Mac
2、ro Outlook:De-globalisation,divergence and debt sustainability remain key.4 Author:Robin Marshall,Director,Global Investment Research,FTSE Russell Section 2 Equities Outlook:Equities rebound from tariff shock amid resilient earnings and stabilizing revisions.11 Author:Tajinder Dhillon,CFA,Senior Res
3、earch Analyst,Fundamental Research Section 3 Retail Consumer Outlook:Retails Reality Check:Growth Slows,Sentiment Sours,and Tariffs Loom.18 Author:Jharonne Martis,Director,Consumer Research Section 4 Funds Outlook:U.S.investors redeem summers equity gains,as global peers wait-and-see.23 Author:Dewi
4、John,Lipper Research Lead,Europe Section 5 Agency RMBS Outlook:Resilience and Cautious Optimism in a Shifting Landscape.118 Author:Irene Shi,RMBS Modeller Section 6 CMBS Outlook:CRE fundamental bottoming out?.399 Author:Luke Lu,Head of Credit Research and Quantitative Modelling Section 7 CLO Outlook
5、:Tailwinds for issuance and spreads.50 Author:Luke Lu,Head of Credit Research and Quantitative Modelling 2025 Mid-Year Outlook 3 Executive Summary De-globalisation,monetary policy divergence,and debt sustainability remain key global macro themes,as initial fears about the impact of higher US tariffs
6、 eased in H1.Tariff woes and trade tensions are further evidence of de-globalisation,and briefly dominated markets in March and April,as stagflation fears resumed.But a tariff pause drove a strong rally in risk assets.European central banks eased policy in H1,as they switched focus to weaker growth,
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