汇丰：中国重卡行业研究：销量超预期强劲增长 电动化渗透提速-250805 (23页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ Find o

2、ut moreHSBC12th Annual China ConferenceShenzhen|1-2 September 2025 Subsidy beat in July we lift 2025e domestic sales to 700k units(150k driven by policy);VII standard a 2027 catalyst E-truck likely 40%penetration in 2030;continuous ASP rise should improve e-truck NPM Retain Buy on Weichai(lift H TP,

3、cut A TP on narrow premium);upgrade Sinotruk to Buy(from Hold)on stronger sector sales We lift 2025e domestic truck sales by 8%:July heavy-duty truck(HDT)sector sales grew 42%y-o-y,driven by subsidies;they have been consecutively strong since April and above our estimates.For 2025,we now expect 25%o

4、f the 600k China IV installed base(150k units;ex.1-2)to be replaced.We lift our 2025e HDT domestic sales to 700k units(from 650k),implying 30%growth in 2H.Beyond 2025,we think China VII standard will be the next catalyst,which may take effect in 2H28,in line with Euro VII(ex.3),implying truck renewa

5、l for China V will likely start in 2027.Given the installed base of c5m units,were positive on 2027 HDT domestic sales(ex.4).E-trucks margins to improve with ASP lift:The penetration rate of e-trucks rose to 19%in 1H25,vs 14%in 2024,on cost effectiveness(ex.5,e-truck estimated to break even with die

6、sel truck costs after 2-year operation).We expect e-truck penetration to rise to 40%by 2030e(ex.7;80%penetrated in short/medium haul,ie,30%of the market,plus 20%in long haul,ie,70%of the market).After fierce price competition in e-trucks,market share and pricing are more stable YTD.The big 5(ex.12)a