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1、 July 2025 Atradius Economic Outlook Trade war Trade war ATRADIUS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK-JULY 2025 i Table of Contents Summary ii 1.Global macroeconomic environment 1 1.1 An unprecedented policy shock 2 1.2 Financial market turbulence imposes discipline 2 1.3 Global GDP forecast dragged down by the US 4 1

2、.4 A self-inflicted wound 5 1.5 Trade war assumptions 6 1.6 Trade shifts 7 1.7 Commodity prices take a hit 9 1.8 No worries about inflation revival 13 1.9 Monetary policy difference unsustainable 14 1.10 Public finance concerns worsen 15 1.11 Trade war escalation 16 2.Advanced economies 18 2.1 Trade

3、 war drags down growth prospects for advanced economies 19 2.2 Eurozone:subdued growth 19 2.3 Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty downgrade US outlook 22 2.4 Canada facing recession induced by trade war 25 2.5 United Kingdom:trade deals not enough to boost short-term growth 26 2.6 Japan:trade challe

4、nges add to domestic woes 27 3.Emerging markets economies 28 3.1 Global uncertainty undermines EMEs growth prospects 29 3.2 China facing headwinds over trade war 29 3.3 India close to signing an interim trade deal with the US 30 3.4 Mexico facing trade war-induced recession 30 3.5 Brazil:less exposu

5、re to US but still losing steam 31 3.6 Trkiye:economy continues to lose steam 32 3.7 Russia:high inflation weighs on consumption growth 32 3.8 South Africa:new government brings more reform potential 33 Appendix 34 ATRADIUS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK-JULY 2025 ii Summary Global growth is expected to remain su

6、bdued at 2.4%in both 2025 and 2026,representing a downward growth revision for all major markets.In the first few months of the new US administration,trade tariffs followed each other in rapid succession,with Liberation Day on April 2 as the provisional highlight.Since then,there have been many poli