汇丰：中国自动化行业深度研究：人形机器人供应链：市场机遇已充分体现 - 250220（英文版）（26页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Humanoid robot mass deployments coul

2、d begin in 2027 on significant cost reductions and accelerated trainings Component suppliers well positioned to monetize from 2025;but positives were priced in during the recent market rally Downgrade Sanhua to Hold(from Buy),TP RMB33(vs RMB27);maintain Hold on Hengli Hydraulic,TP RMB84.7(vs RMB56.7

3、)The A-share humanoid robot index has surged 16%YTD(vs.the CSI 300 indexs 2%decline),fueled by market optimism around the sector after key players(Tesla,1X,and Agility)announced their aggressive production plans.We expect the global humanoid robot installation base to reach 9m units,or RMB1.3trn,by

4、2035.This is due to our expectation that the cost of humanoid robots will likely halve in the next decade,driven by localisation of key components,mass production,and prototype adjustments.Based on this trajectory,we expect 2027e,when the payback period of a humanoid robot drops to two years,to be t

5、he year when mass deployments of humanoid robots begin.We see market opportunities for component suppliers:We expect the largest share of market to be reaped by actuator suppliers,followed by sensor and software suppliers.We expect the market size of humanoid robot actuators,sensors,and software,to

6、reach cRMB80bn/30bn/20bn per annum,respectively,over 2025-35e.Sanhua and Hengli Hydraulic are well positioned to benefit from market upside.Although there are no confirmed orders yet,we think commercialization could occur from 2025,given several thousand units of production guided by key players.Dow