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资本集团(Capital Group):2025年年中投资展望报告:长期视角下的市场与经济分析(中译版)(21页).pdf

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1、OutlookLong-term perspective on markets and economies2025 MIDYEAR EDITIONFOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLYMarketing communication2 2025 MIDYEAR OUTLOOK Some of the information in this material may include forecasts,hypothetical data,company examples and segments,which are shown for illustrative purpos

2、es only.All returns are in US dollar terms unless otherwise stated.2025Midyear Outlook“Jody JonssonVice Chair and Portfolio ManagerCapital GroupWe are in the middle of a fundamental restructuringof the geopolitical order.As we reach the midpoint of 2025,the change weve witnessed since the start of t

3、he year is staggering and has translated into a high level of market volatility.So much has happened so quickly,it feels a bit like the title of the Oscar-winning movie Everything Everywhere All at Once.We are living in interesting times,and they are different from anything Ive seen in my35 years at

4、 Capital Group.We are in the middle of a fundamental restructuring of the geopolitical order that weve known since the end of World War II politically,militarily and economically.The integrated global system weve come to rely on over the past several decades is rapidly changing and may look very dif

5、ferent going forward.We cant assume this system will survive in the years ahead,whether that means the end of multinational military alliances,the abandonment of long-held agreements between trading partners,or the redrawing of complex supply chains that have dominated global trade.At the moment,inv

6、estors dont know how these events will play out,and thats why the financial markets are having a difficult time finding a clear direction.Volatility rose sharply in the first half of the year as tariff-induced trade wars and real wars dampened the global outlook.This lack of clarity is affecting the

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根据报告的内容,本文主要概括如下: 1. **全球经济不确定性**:2025年全球经济面临不确定性,美国贸易政策导致全球经济增长预期下调,市场波动加剧。 2. **投资机会**:高波动性为基本面投资者提供机会,建议关注股息增长股、高质量投资级债券、高收益债券等。 3. **安全需求**:各国政府加强安全需求,利好国防、能源、供应链和科技安全相关公司。 4. **跨国公司调整**:跨国公司调整全球布局,应对贸易环境变化,部分公司加大在美国的投资。 5. **欧洲和日本**:欧洲和日本在应对全球贸易环境变化中展现出新的活力,欧洲加大创新和投资,日本成为自由贸易的领导者。 6. **中国**:中国加速内需战略,政府政策支持创新,中国创新公司表现优于美国科技巨头。 7. **债券市场**:债券市场在政策不确定性中提供相对稳定回报,建议关注高息按揭支持证券、投资级公司债等。 8. **新兴市场**:新兴市场国家预计降息,利好当地货币债券。 以上是对文章主要内容的简要概括。
2025年市场展望如何? 全球贸易战对市场和经济有何影响? 如何在不确定的市场中寻找投资机会?
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