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摩根士丹利&奥纬咨询:2025年度全球批发银行行业报告:非美批发银行竞争力分析(英文版)(34页).pdf

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1、M BluePaperOliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting.For more information,visit .Oliver Wyman is not authorized or regulated by the PRA or the FCA and is not providing investment advice.Oliver Wyman authors are not research analysts and are neither FCAnor FINRA registered.Oliver Wyman

2、 authors have only contributed their expertise on business strategy within the report.Oliver Wymans views are clearly delineated.The securities and valuation sections of this report are the work of Morgan Stanley only and not Oliver Wyman.For disclosures specifically pertaining to Oliver Wyman,pleas

3、e see the Disclosure Section located at the end of this reportMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Researc

4、h.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered wit

5、h FINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Global Banks&Asset ManagersDefying Gravity:Can Non-US Wholesale Banks Win in the New

6、World Order?The US has been the gravitational force in Wholesale Banking for decades,but recent geopolitical tensions threaten the balance.We explore 3 scenarios that test US dominance in a fragmenting world.Non-US banks can close the gap,but meaningful change will be required from policymakers and

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根据文章内容,本文主要讨论了美国在全球批发银行业务中的主导地位,以及当前地缘政治紧张局势可能对这一格局造成的影响。文章提出了三种可能情景,并分析了不同情景下美国和其他地区银行的表现。关键数据包括: 1. 美国六大批发银行在全球核心批发银行业务收入中的占比从2012年的33%上升到2024年的44%。 2. 2022年,北美资产管理规模占全球近45%,其中大部分投资于美国。 3. 2024年,美国股市交易量占全球65%,美国公司债交易量占全球67%。 4. 在多极化世界情景下,2028年欧洲和亚洲批发银行业务收入将增长20%以上,而美洲收入增长5%,导致美洲在全球收入中的份额下降5个百分点。 5. 即使在多极化世界情景下,美国六大银行在全球核心批发银行业务收入中的份额仅下降2个百分点,从44%降至42%。 6. 欧洲和亚洲银行需要大量投资才能抓住美国市场份额转移的机会。 综上所述,文章认为美国在全球批发银行业务中的主导地位难以撼动,但当前的地缘政治紧张局势为欧洲和亚洲银行提供了增长和获取市场份额的机会。然而,这需要政策制定者和银行管理层的重大变革。
美国批发银行是否会被超越? 欧洲和亚洲银行能否抓住机遇? 全球经济衰退对银行业的影响?
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