1、Chemicals M&A:Historical trends and 2025 outlookREPORTA challenging market in uncertain timesCover:1715d1db_3/iStockManagement summaryThe chemicals M&A market in 2025 is expected to remain subdued,following a period of record activity in 2021 driven by post-pandemic recovery,low interest rates and s
2、trong optimism.Since then,global economic conditions have been reshaped by rising inflation,interest rate hikes,the impact of the Ukraine war on energy prices,prolonged destocking trends,and post-COVID supply chain normalization,leading to weaker demand,lower sales volumes and declining profit margi
3、ns in the Chemicals industry.These conditions led to a sharp decline in deal volumes,with approximately 70%of transactions failing to close in 20232024,primarily due to persistent valuation gaps regarding what normalized EBITDA margins should be.Sellers were anchored to peak-cycle earnings and futur
4、e demand optimism,while buyers were cautious,factoring in economic,geopolitical,trade and raw material uncertainties.Looking ahead,the sector faces continued headwinds:overcapacity in China is pressuring global margins in some key value chains(such as phenolics),trade policy volatility is increasing
5、 investment risk and European players continue to be disadvantaged by high energy costs and sluggish growth.Additionally,key end markets(such as automotive and construction)are growing below historical trends,further limiting volume growth.As a result,we expect the chemicals M&A environment to remai
6、n subdued and to be shaped by several trends:ongoing corporate carve-outs as companies refocus on core activities(especially in Europe),rise in distressed or over-leveraged assets due to higher borrowing costs and soft demand and mounting pressure from private equity limited partners for returns,for
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