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美国农业部:2025全球谷物粮食市场与贸易报告(中译版)(59页).pdf

上传人: Y**** 编号:654100 2025-05-21 59页 1.46MB

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1、United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Grain:World Markets and Trade Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription,click here to register:https:/ May 2025 Global corn production is forecast to increase,primarily on a record crop in the Uni

2、ted States,but also on modestly larger crops in Argentina,Brazil,and Ukraine.Trade is also forecast up as demand in Mexico and the European Union is expected to remain strong.Global consumption of corn is forecast higher for both feed and food,seed,and industrial(FSI)uses.With consumption slightly h

3、igher than production,ending stocks are forecast down,with lower stocks in China and Brazil but larger stocks in the United States.The global wheat outlook is for record production and consumption,higher trade,and greater ending stocks.Production is projected to increase with larger crops in the Eur

4、opean Union and India more than offsetting declines for Kazakhstan,Australia,Pakistan,and the United States.Global trade will expand with higher demand from Turkey and China.Exports are forecast to rise,particularly for the European Union,Argentina,Australia,and Russia.Higher FSI use,especially in I

5、ndia,and boosted EU feed and residual use are expected to lead to record global consumption.Ending stocks are forecast up,with increases for India,tempered by reductions to China and Pakistan.Global rice production is forecast at a record with larger crops in Bangladesh,India,and Pakistan.Global con

6、sumption is expected to rise to a new record,primarily from strong growth in India,Thailand,and the Philippines.Global trade is forecast to slightly increase with India remaining the top exporter,followed by Vietnam.Thailands trade forecast is up,driven by growing demand in traditional markets.Globa

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根据报告的内容,本文主要概括了2025/26年度全球小麦、稻米和大麦的产量、消费、贸易和库存情况。 1. 全球小麦产量预计达到808.5百万吨,创历史新高,其中欧盟、俄罗斯和美国产量增加。 2. 全球小麦消费预计为804.7百万吨,增长9.1百万吨,主要受印度和巴基斯坦的食品、种子和工业用途推动。 3. 全球小麦库存预计略有增加,达到269.1百万吨,其中印度和中国库存增加,而欧盟和俄罗斯库存减少。 4. 全球稻米产量预计为538.7百万吨,创历史新高,主要受印度、中国和孟加拉国产量增加推动。 5. 全球稻米消费预计为538.8百万吨,增长6.1百万吨,主要受印度、泰国和菲律宾消费增长推动。 6. 全球稻米库存预计为185.1百万吨,基本持平,中国库存增加,印度和印尼库存减少。 7. 全球大麦产量预计为142.2百万吨,其中欧盟、俄罗斯和中国产量增加。 8. 全球大麦消费预计为150.0百万吨,略有增长,主要受中国饲料需求推动。 9. 全球大麦库存预计略有下降,达到18.9百万吨。
2025年全球小麦产量将创历史新高,原因是什么? 印度和中国在全球小麦消费中占据主导地位,原因是什么? 2025年全球玉米产量预计将大幅增长,这对全球粮食市场有何影响?
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