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联合国贸发会议:2025年贸易与发展展望报告:压力之下:不确定性重塑全球经济前景(中译版)(41页).pdf

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1、UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTUNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTTrade and development foresights 2025Under pressure:Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsTrade and development foresights 2025Under pressure:Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsii T

2、rade and development foresights 2025Under pressure:Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsThe analysis presented in this report is consistent with information and data available as at 10 April 2025.Inquiries about the content of this publication should be sent by email to the Macroeconomic an

3、d Development Policies Branch,Division on Globalization and Development Strategies,United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD);e-mail:unctad-gds_mdpbunctad.org.The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion

4、 whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.This docume

5、nt has not been formally edited.UNCTAD/GDS/INF/2025/1 iiTrade and development foresights 2025Under pressure:Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsiii About UNCTADUNCTAD is the leading institution within the United Nations that deals with trade and development.It is part of the United Nations

6、 Secretariat and has a membership of 195 countries,one of the largest in the United Nations system.UNCTAD supports developing countries to access the benefits of a globalized economy more fairly and effectively by providing economic and trade analysis,facilitating consensus-building and offering tec

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本文主要讨论了2025年全球经济面临的压力和不确定性,以及这些因素如何重塑全球经济前景。主要观点如下: 1. 2025年全球经济增长预计将放缓至2.3%,低于2.5%的衰退门槛,标志着全球经济进入衰退期。 2. 政策不确定性、贸易政策冲击、金融动荡和系统性不确定性正在加剧压力,尤其是对发展中国家。 3. 贸易政策的不确定性已经开始影响企业决策和长期规划。 4. 发展融资面临挑战,主要经济体正在减少官方发展援助,降低社会支出,增加国防预算。 5. 发展中国家面临的风险包括外部环境恶化、债务负担重和国内增长放缓。 6. 加强现有贸易关系,包括全球南方内部贸易,为发展中国家提供了一定缓冲。 7. 政策重点应放在加强区域和国际政策协调,利用现有的贸易和经济联系,以增强脆弱全球经济中的韧性。
2025年全球经济前景如何? 贸易政策不确定性如何影响全球贸易? 发展中国家的资本流动面临哪些风险?
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