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国际货币基金组织(IMF):2025人工智能应用与不平等研究报告(英文版)(64页).pdf

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1、IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2025 APR AI Ad

2、option and Inequality Emma Rockall,Marina M.Tavares,and Carlo PizzinelliWP/25/68INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/68IMF Working Paper Research Department AI Adoption and Inequality Prepared by Emma Rockall,Marina M.Tavares,and Carlo Pizzinelli Authorized for distri

3、bution by Florence Jaumotte April 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive

4、 Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT:will exacerbate economic disparities,while others suggest it could reduce inequality by primarily disrupting high-income jobs.Using household microdata and a calibrated task-based model,we show these narratives reflect different channels through which AI affects the

5、 economy.Unlike previous waves of automation that increased both wage and wealth inequality,AI could reduce wage inequality through the displacement of high-complementary with AI,potentially increasing their productivity,and they are better positioned to benefit from higher capital returns.When firm

6、s can choose how much AI to adopt,the wealth inequality effect is particularly pronounced,as the potential cost savings from automating high-wage tasks drive significantly higher adoption rates.Models that ignore this adoption decision risk understating the trade-off policymakers face between inequa

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本文探讨了人工智能(AI)对不平等的影响,并与之前的自动化浪潮进行了比较。主要观点和数据如下: 1. 人工智能可能通过取代高收入工作来降低工资不平等,但同时可能通过提高资本回报来增加财富不平等。 2. 英国国家财富和资产调查(WAS)显示,高收入工人更可能从事AI技术可执行的任务,他们拥有更多的非劳动收入来源,以及更多的风险资产。 3. 基准模型预测,与自动化相比,AI将降低工资不平等(基尼系数下降1.73个百分点),但增加财富不平等(基尼系数上升7.18个百分点)。 4. 当考虑AI与某些工作的互补性时,高收入工人的工资下降幅度较小,而低收入工人的工资可能下降或无增长,这限制了工资不平等的减少。 5. 允许AI带来总体生产力增长时,所有工人的工资都可能提高,但财富不平等的影响与仅考虑互补性时相同。 6. 允许企业选择采用多少AI时,财富不平等效应更加明显,因为自动化高薪任务的潜在成本节约导致显著更高的采用率。
人工智能如何影响收入不平等? 人工智能与自动化对不平等的影响有何不同? 政策制定者如何平衡人工智能的效率与公平?
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