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世界银行(WBG):2025津巴布韦灾害风险融资诊断报告(中译版)(76页).pdf

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1、Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedTABLE OF CONTENTS123456Assessment of climate risk and the impact of past disasters141.1 Overview of disasters141.2 Droughts181.3 Floods231.4 Impact of disasters on household poverty261.5 I

2、mpact of disasters on MSMEs271.6Macroeconomicandfiscalimpactsofdisasters28Legal and institutional framework for DRF322.1 Overview of the legal framework for DRF322.2Overviewoftheinstitutionalframeworkfordisasterriskfinance362.3 Early warning system38Statusofdisasterriskfinancinginstrumentsandmechani

3、sms393.1 Ex ante funding403.2 Ex post funding423.3Socialsafetynetsandexistingdistributionmechanisms49Reviewoffinancialmarkets524.1Insurancemarket524.2Financialinclusionandfinancialprotection584.3 Capital markets62Fundinggapanalysisandriskfinancingstrategies665.1Fiscalcostanalysis665.2Fundinggapandco

4、mparisonwithrisk-layeredstrategy67Recommendedoptionstostrengthenfinancialresilience716.1Improvethepolicyframework,publicfinancialmanagement,andrisk-informeddecision-making716.2Strengthenthefinancialsectorandenhancetheuseofinsurance726.3Strengthenexistinginstrumentsandadoptnewriskfinancinginstruments

5、73Acknowledgments06Abbreviations07Executive summary08BOXESFIGURESBox 1:Kenyan Hunger Safety Net Program51Box 2:The Philippines development and implementation of national public asset insurance program56Box 3:Buildingresiliencethroughfinancialinclusion59Box 4:Risklayering:Keytrade-offsandconsideratio

6、nswhenestablishingadisasterriskfinancestrategy 69Figure 1:StatusofriskfinancinginstrumentsinZimbabwe11Figure 2:Funding gap at various return periods assuming pre-arranged funds of US$32 million 11Figure 3:ZimbabwesscoresonWorldRiskIndex2022(normalizedscorerangingfrom0to100)14Figure 4:Disasterriskpro

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本文主要内容为对津巴布韦气候风险和灾害影响的评估。津巴布韦气候风险指数较低,但社会经济脆弱性和应对能力不足导致灾害影响严重。1975年至2022年间,灾害导致经济损失至少75亿美元,大部分未投保。干旱、洪水和风暴是最严重的灾害,其中干旱影响最大,平均每年造成经济损失7.9亿美元。洪水平均每五年发生一次,每次造成经济损失5,400万美元。风暴发生频率较低,但影响较大,2019年飓风伊代造成经济损失11.52亿美元。灾害对贫困家庭影响尤为严重,80%的农村家庭依赖雨养农业,缺乏市场和金融产品,使他们在气候变化导致的生产力波动面前极为脆弱。例如,2018/19年的干旱使30%的人口陷入粮食危机或紧急状态。
津巴布韦气候风险如何? 干旱对津巴布韦有何影响? 洪水如何影响津巴布韦贫困家庭?
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