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ICCT:愿景2050:燃料标准助力国际航运达成巴黎协定气候目标(英文版)(29页).pdf

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1、MARCH 2025Vision 2050Fuel standards to align international shipping with the Paris AgreementHAE JEONG CHO,GABRIEL ALVAREZ,BRYAN COMERACKNOWLEDGMENTSWe thank Chelsea Baldino,Xiaoli Mao,Josh Miller,Dan Rutherford,Stephanie Searle,Gonca Seber,and Sola Zheng for helpful reviews,and Jonathan Benoit for h

2、is contributions to the ICCT Polaris version used for this analysis.International Council on Clean Transportation 1500 K Street NW,Suite 650 Washington,DC 20005communicationstheicct.org|www.theicct.org|TheICCT 2025 International Council on Clean Transportation(ID 328)iICCT REPORT|VISION 2050:FUEL ST

3、ANDARDS TO ALIGN INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING WITH THE PARIS AGREEMENTEXECUTIVE SUMMARYIn 2023,the International Maritime Organization(IMO)adopted a revised strategy that aims to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from international shipping to net-zero by or around 2050.The strategy includes indicative

4、checkpoints targeting a 20%reduction in GHG emissions by 2030(striving for 30%)and a 70%reduction by 2040(striving for 80%),both measured against 2008 levels.While these targets align with a well-below 2 C pathway,defined as 1.7 C by the ICCT,they fall short of limiting warming to 1.5 C.Ultimately,i

5、t is the cumulative emissions until net-zero is achieved that will determine shippings contribution to future global warming.The IMO has already implemented short-term technical and operational measures to improve the GHG intensity of ships,and is now developing mid-term measures,including a global

6、fuel standard(GFS)and an economic measure such as a GHG levy to close the price gap between fossil and renewable fuels.Together,these measures can result in additional operational efficiency improvements that make it easier to achieve the 2030 and 2040 targets.These mid-term measures are expected to

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本文是关于国际海事组织(IMO)2023年修订的温室气体减排战略的差距分析报告。报告模拟了三种脱碳情景:IMO最低目标(2030年减排20%,2040年减排70%,2050年实现净零排放)、IMO努力目标(2030年减排30%,2040年减排80%,2050年实现净零排放)和1.5°C目标(2050年前累积排放低于与1.5°C目标一致的碳预算)。报告发现,即使IMO中期措施能够实现其气候目标,国际航运业也将在2030年耗尽其1.5°C碳预算,2037年耗尽1.7°C碳预算,2047年耗尽2°C碳预算。报告还指出,要实现IMO的绝对排放减少目标,需要立即、深入和持续地减少全球平均温室气体燃料强度(GFI),并采用措施实现运营效率提升。例如,要实现IMO努力目标,到2030年,全球航运业的GFI需要比2019年水平降低30%,而到2038年,1.5°C目标要求GFI降低50%以上。报告强调,实现这些目标需要前所未有的雄心和可持续性保障措施。
国际航运如何实现2050年碳中和目标? 航运业如何应对全球变暖1.5°C的挑战? 航运业如何实现2030年减排目标?
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