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世界经济论坛(WEF):2025年全球航空可持续发展展望白皮书(中译版)(45页).pdf

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1、Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025W H I T E P A P E RM A R C H 2 0 2 5Images:Getty ImagesDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of

2、 a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2025 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication

3、may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 51 Cautious optimism 72 Sustainability risks 102.1 Technology challenges 112.2 Policy and geopolitical challenges 1

4、92.3 Sustainability challenges 253 Non-sustainability risks and trends 263.1 Policy and geopolitical risks 273.2 Economic risks 283.3 Social issues 313.4 Technology risks 32Conclusion 34Appendix:Methodology 35Contributors 36Acknowledgements 36Endnotes 37Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 20252Th

5、is year marks an important moment for the aviation sectors journey to net zero.Updated national action plans on how countries intend to decarbonize aviation need to be submitted to the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)by the next general assembly in September.As part of those decarboni

6、zation plans,the first few sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)mandates in Europe came into force in January with increasingly tough targets up to 2030.Over the coming months,more SAF plants will look to make their final investment decision and potentially progress to construction.Expectations for economy

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本文主要讨论了2025年全球航空业的可持续发展前景。主要观点如下: 1. 2025年,全球航空业面临向净零排放过渡的关键时刻,各国需向国际民用航空组织(ICAO)提交更新后的国家行动计划。 2. 可持续航空燃料(SAF)的可用性和成本是2025年航空业脱碳面临的最大挑战。航空公司需要承诺长期SAF采购协议,但需要降低风险,因为先进SAF生产技术和区域政策差异带来重大障碍。 3. 亚太地区成为SAF市场的新兴热点,多国推出支持性政策。中国预计2025年将公布详细SAF政策。 4. 欧洲SAF政策基础牢固,但面临来自具有竞争性原料优势的新兴市场的竞争。美国SAF激励措施的未来因政治变化而存在不确定性。 5. 2025年,全球经济前景和政府更迭对航空业脱碳构成挑战。航空业需在盈利、增长、气候韧性和消费者体验改善之间找到平衡。 6. 尽管存在挑战,但航空业高管对2030年ICAO净零排放愿景持谨慎乐观态度。他们认为,2024年下半年技术发展和投资取得重大突破,SAF产量翻倍,更多国家加入CORSIA,为2025年脱碳努力带来积极信号。
2025年航空业如何实现净零排放? 可持续航空燃料(SAF)的政策如何影响行业发展? 航空业如何应对全球经济波动带来的挑战?
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