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世界银行(WBG):2025电动化之旅:越南电动交通的转型研究报告(英文版)(62页).pdf

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1、TAKING STOCKMARCH 2025ELECTRIFYING JOURNEYS E-mobility Transition in Viet NamTAKING STOCKMARCH 2025ELECTRIFYING JOURNEYS E-mobility Transition in Viet Nam2024 The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of th

2、e World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of Executive Directors.The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,color

3、s,denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or wa

4、iver of the privileges and immunities of the World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division,the World Bank,1818 H Street NW,Washington DC,20433,USA,Fax:202-522-2625;email:pubrightsworldbank.org.Cover d

5、esign by Le Bros,photo credit TABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY iRecent Economic Developments iOutlook and Policy Implications vSpecial Focus:E-mobility transition viChapter 1.Economic Developments and Prospects 81.1 Recent Economic Developments 9Growth accelerated in 2024 driven by a strong reboun

6、d in exports 9Manufacturing led the recovery of output,investment,and jobs 12Household consumption remained stable amid positive wage growth and a nascent property sector recovery 15The balance of payment deficit widened as the current account surplus was offset by capital outflows 18Monetary policy

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本文主要内容概括如下: 1. 2024年,越南GDP增长7.1%,高于大多数东亚发展中国家,主要受出口强劲反弹推动。 2. 制造业生产增长9.8%,对GDP增长贡献32%,其中电子、汽车和机械产量增长最快。 3. 私人消费稳定,但低于疫情前水平,受消费信心低迷和房地产市场缓慢复苏影响。 4. 贸易强劲反弹,出口增长15.5%,进口增长16.1%,贸易顺差240亿美元。 5. 经常账户盈余540亿美元,但资本外流导致金融账户出现赤字,总体收支平衡恶化至-2.3%GDP。 6. 货币政策保持宽松,通过出售外汇储备干预汇市,维持汇率稳定。 7. 公共投资支出不足导致财政盈余1.8%GDP,政府收入增加主要来自土地销售。 8. 电力消费强度上升至590千瓦时/千美元GDP,为2015年以来最高。 9. 制造业就业增长3.4%,但青年失业率上升至8%。 10. 2025年GDP增长预计放缓至6.8%,但面临全球经济放缓和贸易政策不确定性带来的风险。
越南2024年经济增长为何加速? 越南制造业为何在2024年引领了产出的复苏? 越南2024年为何出现贸易顺差?
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