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世界渔业中心(WorldFish):2024未来鱼类碳排放:区域鱼类供需模型预测情景洞察报告(中译版)(36页).pdf

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1、Photo credit:Chin Yee Chan/WorldFishFuture fish emissions:Insights from modeling foresight scenarios of regional fish supply and demandNovember,2024ForesightINITIATIVE ONINITIATIVE ONLow-Emission Food Systems2AuthorsChin Yee Chan,Nhuong Tran and Lisa Schindler.CitationThis publication should be cite

2、d as:Chan CY,Tran N and Schindler L.2024.Future fish emissions:Insights from modeling foresight scenarios of regional fish supply and demand.Penang,Malaysia:WorldFish.Working paper:2024-61.AcknowledgmentsA special thank you to Yan Hoong and Kai Ching Cheong,who helped us with data analysis.Funding f

3、or this study was provided through Mitigate+:Initiative for Low-Emission Food Systems,and the CGIAR Initiative on Foresight.We would like to thank all funders who support this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund:www.cgiar.org/funders.ContactWorldFish Communications and Marke

4、ting Department,Jalan Batu Maung,Batu Maung,11960 Bayan Lepas,Penang,Malaysia.Email:worldfishcentercgiar.org Creative Commons LicenseContent in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License(CC BY-NC 4.0),which permits non-commercial use,inc

5、luding reproduction,adaptation and distribution of the publication provided the original work is properly cited.2024 WorldFish.Photo creditsFront cover,page,6,8,16,28,Chin Yee Chan/WorldFish.Future fish emissions:Insights from modeling foresight scenarios of regional fish supply and demand3Table of

6、contentsList of abbreviations 4Executive summary 51.Introduction 72.Material and methods 92.1.Fish foresight modeling 92.2.Scenarios 102.3.Post-model estimation of future GHG emissions 123.Results 143.1.Future fish supply and demand under the BAU,Risk and High scenarios 143.2.GHG emissions of fish 2

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本文通过使用国际农产品和贸易模型(IMPACT)对全球鱼类供应和需求进行三种情景预测(业务现状、风险和高情景),探讨了未来鱼类排放的潜在趋势。主要结论如下: 1. 在高情景下,全球鱼类供应和人均鱼类消费在所有地区均有所上升,尤其是亚洲在生产和消费方面均领先。 2. 风险情景预测未来鱼类生产和消费将停滞不前,而业务现状情景则遵循历史趋势。 3. 亚洲工业化地区的海洋捕捞业温室气体排放最高,其次是撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲及加勒比地区。到2035年,水产养殖排放将超过捕捞业,成为水产食品生产的主要温室气体排放源。 4. 高情景为解决南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的营养不良问题提供了机会,可能有助于提高社会和气候正义。 5. 需要在水产养殖中专注于饲料、废物和水管理,以确保可持续增长。
未来鱼类供应量将如何变化? 不同地区鱼类消费有何差异? 鱼类养殖对环境有何影响?
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