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罗兰贝格:2024标准化胜于规模竞赛:欧洲海上风电涡轮机标准化对产能扩大及降本增效的重要性研究报告(中译版)(24页).pdf

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1、Standard beats size in Europes offshore windREPORTTimely and affordable rollout contingent on turbine standardizationOffshore wind(OW)is a key pillar of Europes energy transition.It is crucial to reaching climate targets,achieving energy independence,and creating earning capacity in the regions futu

2、re economy.Europes ambitious OW rollout requires a threefold increase in supply chain capacity.But a perfect storm of inflation,interest hikes and supply chain bottlenecks has escalated costs by 40%since 2022.Achieving the rollout targets in a timely,affordable way is a herculean task for the Europe

3、an OW industry,one that necessitates the development of a robust and fully industrialized supply chain.Today,the OW supply chain is organized around a race for size:who can develop the tallest,biggest,highest-capacity turbines.In the past,larger turbines contributed significantly to cost reductions.

4、But the cost benefits of even larger turbines are diminishing.In fact,todays race to produce ever-larger turbines is now causing costs to increase,and hampering capacity rollout,due to ever-shorter product life cycles and uncertainty about future turbine sizes.This“rat race”is fueled by a vicious cy

5、cle in the sector:1.Governments are trying to reduce costs,in some countries through competitive auctions,which only leads to local,short-term cost pressure on the supply chain,not to longer-term,structural cost reduction.2.Project developers are keen to be the first to use the newest,largest turbin

6、e models to win tender bids and maintain their profitability.3.Turbine OEMs expect larger market share and/or higher margins from value pricing for ever-larger turbines,and are shortening product life cycles to accelerate introductions,but this is leading to performance issues.4.Component and founda

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本文主要讨论了欧洲离岸风电行业面临的挑战和解决方案。文章指出,为了实现气候目标,欧洲离岸风电行业需要在未来七年内将供应链产能提高三倍,这是一个艰巨的任务。然而,由于通货膨胀、利率上升和供应链瓶颈,自2022年以来,成本已经上升了40%。为了以及时和负担得起的方式实现部署目标,欧洲离岸风电行业需要建立一个强大且完全工业化的供应链。 目前,离岸风电供应链的组织方式是一场关于谁能够开发出最高、最大、最高容量涡轮机的竞赛。然而,更大的涡轮机对成本的节约效果正在减弱。事实上,目前对更大涡轮机的追求正在导致成本上升,并阻碍产能的部署,因为产品生命周期越来越短,未来涡轮机尺寸的不确定性。 为了解决这个问题,文章建议政府应强制实施一个标准化的涡轮机尺寸,以便供应链能够打破这个恶性循环。这个标准尺寸应该设置在目前商业风电场正在交付的14-15兆瓦涡轮机的尺寸上,以便原始设备制造商能够进一步优化他们的当前模型,并且对未来的涡轮机没有不确定性。 总的来说,欧洲离岸风电行业需要建立一个强大且完全工业化的供应链,以实现及时和负担得起的部署目标。涡轮机标准化是实现这一目标的前提条件。
欧洲离岸风电行业面临哪些挑战? 标准化的涡轮机尺寸如何帮助降低成本? 欧洲离岸风电行业如何实现可持续发展?
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