高力国际：韧性与复苏：2025年美国商业地产未来展望报告（英文版）（16页）.pdf

1、C R E O U T L O O K 2 0 2 5Resilience&Recovery:The Future of CRE in 2025U.S.Research Report A year ago,economists debated the chances of a mild recession in 2024 and speculated on when the Fed would begin cutting rates many anticipated it would happen early in the year.However,the U.S.economy was no

2、tably resilient throughout 2024.Robust consumer spending,unemployment at around 4%,and gradually decreasing inflation,toward the Feds 2%target,exceeded forecasts.Annual data revisions also revealed stronger-than-expected GDP growth and a higher-than-anticipated savings rate.This economic strength le

3、d the Federal Reserve to delay its first rate cut until September,followed by a modest 25-basis-point cut in November.Despite these positive indicators,public sentiment remained mixed as the cost of goods and services stayed high,one of the factors in Donald Trumps re-election as the 47th president

4、of the United States.While the political uncertainties around the election have been resolved,questions remain about his administrations policy agenda and implementation,likely persisting until he officially takes office and begins enacting his plans.Economic forecasts point to continued growth,supp

5、orted by expansionary fiscal policies.Increased government spending,especially in the defense sector,is expected to boost GDP.The extension of the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and businesses is also projected to play a pivotal role in sustaining this growth,helping to offset potential challenges fr

6、om restrictive immigration policies and higher tariffs.Although these measures may strain the labor supply and raise costs for certain industries,the expected boost from tax cuts should help sustain economic momentum and support consumer and business confidence in the near term.The Feds cautious app