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奥纬咨询:2024增强型保费税收抵免(PTC)到期对平价医疗法案(ACA)个人市场的预期影响分析报告(中译版)(19页).pdf

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1、PROJECTED IMPACT OF THE EXPIRATION OF THE ENHANCED PREMIUM TAX CREDITSIndividual ACA MarketRyan Schultz,FSA,MAAAPeter Kaczmarek,FSA,MAAAJohn Rienstra,FSA,MAAAJames Bao,FSA,MAAACONTENTSReport Qualifications,Acknowledgments and Limiting Conditions 3Executive Summary 4Introduction and Background 5Resul

2、ts 7Methodology and Data Sources 15Appendix A.Overview of Oliver Wymans Healthcare ReformMicrosimulation Model 17 Oliver Wyman3Projected Impact of the Expiration of the Enhanced Premium Tax CreditsReport Qualifications,Acknowledgments and Limiting ConditionsThis work was undertaken at the direction

3、of the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association.There are no third-party beneficiaries with respect to this report,and Oliver Wyman does not accept any liability to any third party.Information furnished by others,upon which all or portions of this report are based,is believed to be reliable but has not be

4、en independently verified,unless otherwise expressly indicated.Public information and industry and statistical data are from sources we deem to be reliable;however,we make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information.The findings contained in this report may contain predi

5、ctions based on current data and historical trends.Any such predictions are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.Oliver Wyman accepts no responsibility for actual results or future events.The opinions expressed in this report are valid only for the purpose stated herein and as of the date of

6、this report.No obligation is assumed to revise this report to reflect changes,events,or conditions,which occur subsequent to the date hereof.Any decisions made in connection with the information contained in this report are the sole responsibility of the reader.This report does not represent investm

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根据报告的内容,本文主要研究了美国《平价医疗法案》(ACA)个人市场增强型预付款税抵免(PTC)到期对市场的影响。主要结论包括: 1. 如果没有延长增强型PTC,预计到2027年,个人ACA市场将减少约700万参保人,其中约540万人将失去任何形式的医疗保险。 2. 年轻人(18-34岁)将受到最大影响,预计将有280万人退出个人ACA市场,下降超过47%。 3. 健康人群退出市场的比例将高于有较大医疗需求的人群,导致平均疾病率上升5.9%。 4. 受影响最大的收入群体是100%-200%联邦贫困线(FPL)的家庭,占退出市场的60%。 5. 如果没有增强型PTC,预计将有170万患有至少一种慢性病的参保人失去保险。 6. 平均而言,接受PTC的参保人净保费将增加90%,约1200美元/年。
失去增强型PTCs后,个人ACA市场将如何变化? 失去增强型PTCs后,哪些人群将最受影响? 失去增强型PTCs后,美国无保险人数将如何变化?
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