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未来资源研究所:2024年清洁能源转型中的运营支出与资本支出风险分析报告(中译版)(36页).pdf

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1、Operational versus Capital Expenditure Risk in a Clean Energy TransitionAOperational versus Capital Expenditure Risk in a Clean Energy TransitionBrian C.Prest and Jordan WingenrothReport 24-04 March 2024Resources for the FutureiAbout the AuthorsBrian C.Prest is an economist and fellow at Resources f

2、or the Future(RFF)specializing in the economics of climate change,energy economics,and oil and gas supply.Prest uses economic theory and econometrics to improve energy and environmental policies by assessing their impacts on society.His recent work includes improving the scientific basis of the soci

3、al cost of carbon and economic modeling of various policies around oil and gas supply.His research has been published in peer-reviewed journals such as Nature,the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists,and the Journal of Environm

4、ental Economics and Management.His work has also been featured in popular press outlets including the Washington Post,the Wall Street Journal,the New York Times,Reuters,the Associated Press,and Barrons.Jordan Wingenroth is a research associate at RFF with a focus on the Social Cost of Carbon(SCC).Jo

5、rdan leads the current effort to add SCC estimates pertaining to biodiversity loss to the RFF-Berkeley Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator(GIVE)model,having formerly contributed to the development of GIVE as was published in Nature in 2022.Prior to joining RFF,Jordan studied ecology in the Departm

6、ent of Environmental Science,Policy,and Management at the University of California,Berkeley.Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory,a national laboratory of the U.S.Department of Energy,Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy,operated by the Alli

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本文主要研究了在清洁能源转型中,运营支出(OPEX)风险和资本支出(CAPEX)风险之间的差异。文章通过建立一个动态经济模型,分析了化石资产(如天然气发电和燃气车辆)和“绿色”替代品(如风能和电动汽车)的风险特征。化石资产主要面临燃料价格等运营支出的不确定性,而绿色资产则主要面临资本支出的不确定性。 文章的主要结论包括: 1. 所有绿色投资组合的运营支出风险呈负相关,而所有化石投资组合的运营支出风险呈正相关。 2. 在全化石投资策略中加入绿色资产选项通常比在全绿色投资策略中加入化石资产选项更能降低成本不确定性。 3. 实际拥有绿色资产几乎总是能降低成本不确定性,因为它能保护社会(投资者和消费者)免受运营支出风险的影响。 文章还指出,动态规划模型虽然允许在不确定性下进行细致的决策制定,但仍然需要简化的假设,不能完全反映现实世界的所有复杂性。
化石资产与绿色资产风险有何不同? 绿色资产如何降低成本不确定性? 绿色资产与化石资产投资策略有何区别?
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