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未来资源研究所(RFF):2024应对不确定性:加利福尼亚“总量控制与交易市场”机制的修正案分析报告(中译版)(51页).pdf

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1、Designing for Uncertainty:Amendments to Californias Cap-and-Trade MarketADesigning for Uncertainty:Amendments to Californias Cap-and-Trade MarketNicholas Roy,Maya Domeshek,and Dallas BurtrawReport 24-08 May 2024Resources for the FutureiAbout the AuthorsNicholas Roy is a research associate at Resourc

2、es for the Future(RFF).He joined RFF in June 2020 to work on the Haiku electricity sector simulation model.Using Haiku,Nick has analyzed an array of policies including clean energy tax credits,renewable energy standards,and emissions pricing.In addition to electricity sector modeling,Nick also emplo

3、ys various research methods to analyze freight regulation and electrification in the transportation sector.Prior to joining RFF,Roy was a 2019 summer intern for Art Fraas investigating energy efficiency device usage among heavy duty trucks.Between the two positions,he researched port drayage disrupt

4、ions at the Center for International Trade and Transportation.He graduated from California State University Long Beach with a BA in economics,a BS in applied mathematics,and a minor in philosophy.Maya Domeshek is a research associate at RFF.Her research focuses on decarbonizing the electricity secto

5、r and the distributional effects of environmental policy.She works with RFFs Haiku electricity sector model and the Social Welfare Incidence Model.Previously,she has studied state level electricity decarbonization policy in Virginia and Pennsylvania,the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act,and gree

6、nhouse gas regulations under the Clean Air Act.Dallas Burtraw is the Darius Gaskins Senior Fellow at RFF.He has worked to promote efficient control of air pollution and written extensively on electricity industry regulation and environmental outcomes.Burtraws current research includes analysis of th

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本文主要研究了加州温室气体(GHG)限额交易市场可能进行的改革。这些改革旨在通过调整年度排放限额的轨迹来延长该限额交易计划的时间。报告使用RFF的Haiku排放市场模型分析了加州空气资源委员会(CARB)提出的可能改革。主要结论包括: 1. 未来排放和配额价格路径在不同情景下有所不同。在技术和经济需求不确定性的敏感性分析中,我们发现配额需求、排放和价格的波动更大。 2. 从名义排放配额中移除配额将导致更高的配额价格。然而,移除APCR配额会增加价格的波动性。 3. 尽管A、B和C选项在累积配额供应上看似相同,但更严格的A名义配额(A)产生的排放量低于B和C,特别是在CARB的SRIA假设和本报告确认的情况下,APCR从未被触发。 4. 收紧任何一种CARB提出的上限都将增加配额价值,即使配额减少,但选择从拍卖供应、自由分配的配额还是从APCR中移除配额,将通过对Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund(GGRF)相对于自由分配接收者的配额价值的分配产生影响。 5. 假设该计划在2030年后继续进行,收紧累积配额供应将导致银行规模在2030年减少约40%,之后银行将继续缓慢减少至2045年。增加上限的严格性将提高银行配额的价值。
加州温室气体限额交易市场改革将如何影响排放和价格? 加州温室气体限额交易市场改革对不同群体的分配效应是什么? 加州温室气体限额交易市场改革对银行行为有何影响?
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