《易车研究院：比亚迪拿什么把合资份额打到10%；家庭车市洞察报告(2024版)（英文版）（29页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《易车研究院：比亚迪拿什么把合资份额打到10%；家庭车市洞察报告(2024版)（英文版）（29页）.pdf（29页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Insights on Family Car Market(2024)Yiche Research InstituteHow Will BYD Drive Down JV Market Share to 10%?AuthorsDirector/Chief AIndustry AIndustry ALijun ZhouYing GaoBenya ShiGraphic DQiang ZhangMarried Car MarketSingles Car MarketSingle0MarriedFamily car market:vehicle segment composed of buyers t

2、hatare marriedFrom the 80s and 90s in the 20 century to the early part of the 21 century,Chinas passenger vehicle market was dominated first by executive cars and then business cars.For the next 20 years or so up until early 2024,the market entered an era in which it was dominated by family cars.Ove

3、r the past 3-4 years or so,models that were representative of family cars such as the Lavida,Sylphy and Haval H6 experienced a significant collapse in both sales and retail pricing.Mainstream brands that used to be popular in the family car market like VW,Toyota,Honda,Nissan and Buick all faced majo

4、r headwinds.These series of anomalies in Chinas family car market are causing major headaches for many carmakers that want to find viable solutions to better address this market segment;The research data presented in YRIs 2024 China PV user insights series is primarily based on YRI online research w

5、ith a sample size of more than 60,000 in 2023,as well as on Yiche Big Data and YRI offline research with a sample size of more than 10,000 in 2023.Family Car Market SchematicthstFrom 2014 to 2023,although the share of family car sales dropped more than 10 percentage points from 89%to 78.44%,the fami

6、ly car market was still the dominant segment of Chinas car market.For any carmaker that has the ambition to be successful in China,there is no getting around in competing in the family car market.Over the past 5-6 years,despite falling end-user sales of family cars from the peak of 21.03 million uni

7、ts reached in 2017 to 16.95 million units in 2023,thats still enough to top the 15.6 million light vehicles sold in the U.S.Its undeniably the worlds largest vehicle segment.Chinas family car market is a market of significant importance both in China and globally.Carmakers that dominate Chinas famil

8、y car market would likely dominate both the Chinese and global markets,killing two birds with one stone.Over the past dozen years or so,Volkswagen has reaped enormous benefit from this market segment;Because of the word“family,”the concept of the family car market has become much more sharpened,whic

9、h is conducive to extracting value points for industry analysis.And because of its massive scale,understanding Chinas family car market also helps to understand the evolution of the landscape of both the Chinese and global car markets.In 2023,family cars accounted for 78.44%of Chinas total passenger

10、 vehicle sales,even more than the total vehicles sold in the U.S.,carmakers that dominate Chinas family car market would likely dominate both the Chinese and global marketsSource:YRIMarket share denote variable as a percentage of industry salesChina Family Car Market End-User Salesand Growth 2014-20

11、23(10,000 units)Market Share of Family CarMarket 2014-2023Sales of Top 10 Global CarMarkets 2023(10,000 units)End-User SalesYoY Growth-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001000150020002500201420152016201720182019202020212022202301000200030004000ChinaChinas Family CarMarket(PV)USAIndiaJapanGermanyBrazilFran

12、ceKoreaCanadaUK0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023In 2023,family cars dominated every one of the top 20 selling(end-user sales)brands in China,more or less at a penetration of 80%.Tesla had the lowest family car buyer penetration among the top 20 at nearly 70%,w

13、hile Li Auto had the highest at over 90%;If the Chinese family car market sneezes,mainstream carmakers will catch a cold.For any mainstream carmakers in China,there is no getting around in understanding and capitalizing on the family car market.The evolution of Chinas car market over the past dozen

14、years or so is closely linked with the family car market:over the past 6-7 years,the failure and departure of foreign automakers like Suzuki,Fiat,Renault and Mitsubishi perhaps all resulted in their inability to effectively address the family car market.Over the past 4-5 years,the strong headwinds f

15、aced by prominent brands like VW,Nissan,Buick and Honda may have been the result of great impact from the family car market;Over the past 2-3 years,the rise of brands such as Li Auto,AITO and BYD was likely the result of them effectively addressing and benefiting from the family car market.Family ca

16、rs dominated every one of the top 20 selling(end-user sales)brands in China in 2023,for many of them family cars mean life and deathSource:YRIMainstream model denotes those with sales of more than 30,000 in China in 2023;the denominator of the penetration rate is the model itself,while the numerator

17、 is the actual value of variablethis better reflects the conditions of the said model,so we are not going to do horizontal comparisonEnd-User SalesFamily Car Buyer PenetrationEnd-User Sales of Top 20 Brands and Their CorrespondingFamily Car Buyer Penetration in 2023(10,000 units)0%20%40%60%80%100%05

18、0100150200250BYDVWToyotaHondaGeelyBMWChanganMercedesAudiWulingNissanTeslaBuickHavalGAC AIONCheryLi AutoGAC TrumpchiHongqiChangan OshanOver the past decade or so,the dominant buying force in Chinasfamily car market shifted from young buyers with low educationlevel to middle-aged buyers with high educ

19、ation level,completelychanging the user structure and underlying logic of the familycar marketIn 2014,the share of young buyers in Chinas family car market was nearly 70%while that of buyers with high-school or below education levels was nearly 60%.These characteristics formed the typical user base:

20、the so-called“small town youth.”They were the most coveted group of target customers for carmakers at the time,often buying cars as they get married and have kids,typical of first-time buyers who had lots of desire to buy cars but lacked car ownership knowledge and experience.They were therefore mos

21、tly interested in economy bland products that are also affordable such as Lavida,Sagitar,Sylphy and Corolla offered by well known international brands like VW,Nissan and Toyota;From 2017 to 2020,Chinas family car market entered a period of transition as the share of young buyers and those with low e

22、ducation level dropped to around 50%,while the share of middle-aged buyers with more household wealth,richer car buying experience and diversified buying needs as well as higher education level(junior college degree and above)seeking better ownership experience and more sensitive to product features

23、 increased.That led to a sudden drop in sales of economy bland products as the shift from cars to multi-purpose SUVs accelerated.The biggest beneficiary of this shift was Volkswagen thanks to its SUV strategy.In addition,sales of the German“Big 3”high-end brands of Audi,Mercedes and BMW increased si

24、gnificantly,while growth of Chinese brands with great price-performance ratio but not yet great brand strength like Geely,Changan and Great Wall took off;From 2021 to 2023,the user structure of Chinas“new family car market”came into formation as the share of middle-aged buyers topped 60%and the shar

25、e of high education level buyers approached 70%,completely changing the user structure and underlying logic of this segment.In many sub-segments of the market,new forces started to challenge or even replace the incumbent forces.Source:YRIYouth:34 years old and below;middle-aged:35-54;elderly:55 year

26、s old and above0%20%40%60%80%100%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023Share of Chinas Family Car Market by Education Level 2014-2023Share of Chinas Family Car Market by Age Group 2014-2023Middle-AgedElderlyYouthJunior CollegeUndergraduateGraduateHigh School/PolytechnicMiddle School&Below0%20%40%6

27、0%80%100%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023Over the past decade or so,the share of female and middle-classbuyers in Chinas family car market approached that of male andblue collar buyers,enriching the product make up of the marketFrom 2014 to 2016,the share of male buyers in Chinas family car

28、market topped 80%,while that of blue collar buyers reached around 70%,forming a core buying group that can be defined as“work-ing-class male buyers”who primarily bought economy bland products.Distinctive products like macho off-road vehicles and streamlined&sporty models accounted for only 2-3%of th

29、e market;From 2017 to 2020,the share of female buyers in Chinas family car market quickly topped 30%,while that of middle-class buyers topped 35%.These two trends not only drove sales of high-end vehicles in China benefiting brands like Audi,Mercedes and BMW,who increasingly catered to female buyers

30、.They also drove the electrification of the market,as female buyers became primary buyers of EVs like Model 3 and Wuling Hongguang MINIEV;From 2021 to 2023,the share of female buyers in Chinas family car market reached 36.74%while that of middle-class buyers reached 43.54%,greatly increasing the pro

31、duct make up of the family car market.BYD,which became the new sales leader in 2023,had over 40%of their sales coming from female buyers,much higher than core competitors like VW and Toyota.Female buyers played a crucial role in BYDs rise to the top.Source:YRIBlue collar:annual disposable income RMB

32、500KShare of Chinas Family Car Market by Gender 2014-2023FemaleMaleShare of Chinas Family Car Market by Social Status 2014-2023Middle ClassWealthyBlue Collar0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20142015201620172018201920202021202220230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014201520162017201820192020202120222

33、023Chinas“new family car market”is now composed of mainlymiddle-aged buyers with high education level as well as morefemale and middle-class buyers with more high-end anddiversified product make upOver the past decade or so,Chinas family car market has changed dramatically in terms of user make up:f

34、rom 2014 to 2016,building off of the customer base of the previous phase,young,male,working-class buyers with low education levels dominated the market;from 2017 to 2020,it went through a transition period as the share of young and low education level buyers dropped below 50%while that of female and

35、 middle-class buyers topped 30%;from 2021 to 2023,middle-aged buyers with higher education levels became the new dominant buying force,accounting for 60-70%of sales,while female and middle-class buyers became a key buying group accounting for around 40%of sales.Chinas“new family car market”is now co

36、mposed of mainly middle-aged buyers with high education level as well as more female,middle-class buyers;This is pushing products to become more high-end and diversified:from 2014 to 2016,economy bland models dominated Chinas family car market with a market share of around 65%,with mainstream qualit

37、y models accounting for less than 20%and grand&high-end products only 5%;from 2017 to 2020,the share of sales of economy bland products dropped below 50%,while that of mainstream quality and grand&high-end increased to nearly 23%and more than 10%,respectively.Streamlined&sporty models became popular

38、 as share of sales topped 5%;from 2021 to 2023,the share of economy bland models dropped to 37.11%,while that of mainstream quality,grand&high-end,streamlined&sporty as well as refined&stylish models all grew;This completely redefined the user structure and underlying logic of Chinas“new family car

39、market”as customers desired more high-end and diversified products.A new era is forthcoming and the period 2021-2023 gave a preview of things to come.Source:YRIHighEducationLevelNew FamilyCar MarketBuyerMiddle-AgedMiddle-ClassFemale0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023Ne

40、w Family Car Buyer ProfileEvolution of Family Car Market Product Characteristics 2014-2023Economy BlandMainstream QualityGrand&High-EndStreamlined&SportyRefined&StylishSmall&CuteOff-Road&MachoPremium BusinessElite&LuxurySturdy&CommercialTech&SimpleClassic&RetroAvant GardeLi Auto was an early benefic

41、iary of the“new family car”opportunity from 2019 to 2023,other models like GAC Trumpchi M8,Denza D9 and AITO M7 are also trying to capitalizeon that opportunityGAC Trumpchi was the first company to address the“new family car market”opportunity with the GS8 and M8,but Li Auto was really the first to

42、clearly prioritize that battle strategically;In April 2019,Li Autos first mid to large EREV SUV,the Li ONE,was officially launched.That fact that it had an EREV powertrain,was positioned as a“nanny daddy”(later on as family)car and offered three rows of either six or seven seats were controversial a

43、t the time.But they met the desires of the new potential buyers of the“new family car market.”Building on the success of the ONE,from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023,Li Auto launched the L7/8/9,replacing the ONE.As a result,end-user sales in 2023 skyrocketed to 377,600 units,as Li

44、Auto became a major beneficiary of the“new family car market;”From 2022 to 2023,models like the GAC Trumpchi M8,AITO M7,Sienna and Granvia that catered more toward the new potential buyers together proved the“new family opportunity.”Li L9Li L8Li L7Li ONEEnd-User Sales of Li Autos Core Models2019-202

45、3(10,000 units)End-User Sales of Denza D9,GAC Trumpchi M8,AITO M7,Sienna and Granvia 2018-2023(10,000 units)051015202530354020192020202120222023024681012201820192020202120222023Denza D9GAC Trumpchi M8AITO M7SiennaGranvia“New family car market”also creates plenty of opportunities formany JVs that are

46、 flailing and could help prevent their market sharefrom falling to 10%in the next 3-5 yearsFrom 2014 to 2016,in the“old family car market”dominated by young,working-class,male and low education level buyers,sales at many joint ventures operated by multi-national carmakers grew significantly.The turn

47、ing point came during the transition period of 2017-2020 when economy bland products still accounted for the majority of sales of these JVs but sales of these type of vehicles began to slide significantly.The crisis intensified in 2021-2023 when the“new family car market”was formed.Even JVs of stron

48、g foreign automakers like VW,Nissan,Honda and Toyota experienced a significant slide in sales;As of Q1 2024,the economy bland segment continued to shrink,yet product lineups at many JVs were still dominated by economy bland products,resulting in the share of sale of foreign automakers in China dropp

49、ing below 50%(46.62%).In the next 3-5 years,unless product upgrades from foreign automakers are on par with the evolution of Chinas“new family car market,”that share might further deteriorate.BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfus prediction that the market share of JVs could fall to 10%over the next 3-5 years

50、is not an exaggeration;On April 24,2024,SAIC-GMs Buick GL8 PHEV was officially launched to market.Over the next two years,more JVs from global automakers like Ford and Volkswagen will launch high-end energy saving products to try to take back that lost share.Source:YRIEnd-User Sales of Select Foreig

51、n Brands in China PrimarilySelling Family Cars 2007-2023(10,000 units)End-User Sales of Key Productsfrom Foreign Automakers byProduct Characteristic2014-2023(10,000 units)Market Share of ForeignAutomakers in China2014-Q1 202401002003004005006007008002014201520162017201820192020202120222023Mainstream

52、 QualityEconomy BlandGrand&High-EndStreamlined&SportyRefined&StylishPremium BusinessElgant&LuxuryOff-Road&MachoSmall&CuteAvant Garde0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Q1VWHondaNissanChevroletFordHyundaiBuickKia05010015020025030035040020072009 2010201220082011201320

53、1420152016201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023Previous Generation of Family Cars DominateTransitionNew Family Car Market FormingIn 2023,Li Auto led the rankings of mainstream brand family car buyerpenetration,but the MEGA and L6 have somewhat interrupted itsstrategic rhythmBecause the L7/8/9 are created

54、 specifically with”new family users”in mind,Li Auto led all main-stream brands in family car buyer penetration at 91.93%.Though orders for the MEGA and L6 fell short of expectations so far and L7/8/9 prices had to be cut,these were tactical issues that Li Auto responded quickly to while strategic fo

55、cus remained on addressing new family users.Comparatively speaking,BYDs market tactics so far in 2024 have been relatively more stable:a series of”Honor”editions of existing core models at lower price points were launched to enrich the lineup,while new models like the Qin L,Seal 06 and Yuan UP were

56、launched to expand product footprint.Li Auto will confront a greater challenge in the second half of 2024 because BYD will launch multiple competitors such as the Tang MAX,Tang L and Denza D9 targeted directly at the L7/8/9.The MEGA and L6 provide Li Auto with a new perspective on expectations of it

57、s BEV and EREV products,so that it can formulate appropriate market tactics accordingly and prevent potential strategic misdirec-tion caused by the temporary mishap of the MEGA and L6;VOYAH ranked second among mainstream brands in family car buyer penetration at 90.84%,with the Dreamer targeting hig

58、h-end families and the FREE targeting mainstream families.At the end of 2023,PHEVs that can address more usage scenarios and better meet new family user needs helped boost VOYAH monthly sales to 10,000 units.The launch of more mainstream products in 2024 should in theory help VOYAH solidify its perf

59、ormance in the new family car market;Denza ranked third with a family car buyer penetration of 90.14%.As of Q1 2024,it had launched the D9,N7 and N8 where the D9 is targeted at high-end families,N8 at mainstream families and N7 family female buyers.In the second half of 2024,Denza will launch a full

60、-size SUV and large sedan to solidify its coverage in the high-end family car market and separate itself more from sister brands like BYD and Fang Cheng Bao.We suggest Denza focus on its market coverage a bit as more models are being added to the lineup to avoid what has happened at NIO and Xpeng:sa

61、les per model fell as more models were launched;From 2022 to 2023,WEY proactively adjusted its tactics to better address opportunities in the“new family car market,but that did not translate to more sales.Going forward,it should balance long-term and short-term interests and effectively separate its

62、 positioning from other Great Wall Motor products,formulate a more competitive pricing mechanism and improve product attractiveness;Though Hongqi is synonymous with“official cars,”it had a relatively high family car buyer penetration of 86.18%,ranking 7th among all mainstream brands.Starting in 2024

63、,Hongqi will strengthen its PHEV lineup to help better address the“new family car market”opportunity and improve its image as a brand that caters to the everyday masses;GAC Trumpchi is one of those brands that accidentally became an early beneficiary of Chinas“new family car market”and launched the

64、E9 and E8 to strengthen its position in that market.Hopefully it can strengthen its leading position in the“high-end new family car market”in 2024;Source:YRIMainstream brand denotes brands with sales of more than 30,000 units in China in 2023;the denominator of the penetration rate is the model itse

65、lf,while the numerator is the actual value of variablethis better reflects the conditions of the said model,so we are not going to do horizontal comparisonIn the second half of 2023,the AITO M7 quickly became a force in the“new family car market”after its starting prices were cut from around RMB300,

66、000 to RMB250,000,creating major headwinds for Li Auto.With an optimized pricing mechanism of the M7 and M9 in 2024 and the arrival of new products like the M8 and M6,AITO should be able to further solidify its leadership position in the“new family car market;”In 2021,Toyota put into place a high-en

67、d and energy-saving dual strategy in China,hitting the sweet spot of Chinas“new family car market”resulting in many consumers paying extra for new models like the Sienna.From 2022 to 2023,Toyotas momentum took a hit as new models with better energy-saving capability,design and features like the Li L

68、7/8/9 and Denza D9 hit the market,resulting in models like the Highlander,Sienna and Granvia having to cut prices massively.In 2024,the new Prado will be a key model for Toyotas counterattack;Nissan used to be one of the leaders during the last round of the family car market,as models like the Sylph

69、y,X-Trail and Qashqai catered to the needs of young,male,working-class buyers.But as the“new family car market”emerged from 2020 to 2023,Nissan faced severe challenges as it lacked relevant mainstream quality,grand&high-end and streamlined&sporty models.Models like the Pathfinder in 2024 will help N

70、issan address the“new family car market”but Nissan must extract maximum value from this new model;BYD was not in the list of top 20 mainstream brands in family car buyer penetration,but that doesnt mean BYD has no influence on this market.Rather,it shows that there is great potential for growth,its

71、just that BYD hasnt properly addressed this opportunity with the relevant products.Competi-tors better prepare for an onslaught from BYD!Top 20 Mainstream Brands by Family Car Buyer Penetration 202391.93%90.84%90.14%89.77%87.93%86.35%86.18%86.11%86.10%86.05%85.91%85.69%84.59%84.19%83.88%83.86%83.85%

72、83.67%83.66%83.38%Li AutoVOYAHDenzaSAIC MAXUSWEYBuickHongqiJETOURGAC TrumpchiAITOBEIJINGGAC AIONVolvoVenuciaToyotaNIODongfeng FutureHavalJETTANissanIn 2023,the Buick BL8 led the way in mainstream model family carbuyer penetration in the“new family car market,”starting in 2024the strategic focus of J

73、Vs will shift from BEVs to high-end energysaving productsFollowing the GL8 was a huge swath of grand&high-end products like the Li L9,Sienna,Granvia,Highlander,Crown Kluger,Trumpchi M8/GS8 and Denza D9 in the top 20 rankings of mainstream models with the highest“new family car”buyer penetration.Gran

74、d&high-end products could become blockbuster models in the market with further growth of the“new family car market.”The Li L7/8/9,AITO M7 and Denza D9 only represent the beginning.Foreign automakers will also accelerate their shift from BEVs to high-end energy saving products following the footsteps

75、 of the Buick GL8.The Buick GL8 has long been the bestselling product in Chinas business MPV segment.At the end of 2016,the all-new GL8 launched to market and accelerated its entry into the family car market.At the end of 2022,the new Buick Century flagship MPV hit the market at a price range of RMB

76、529,900-689,900,actively exploring the high-end family car market.The Denza D9 energy-saving product took the market by storm in 2023 and surpassed the GL8 in monthly sales,scaring the bejesus out of the GL8.On April 25,SAIC GM responded by unveiling the GL8 PHEV to address the mainstream family car

77、 market;Source:YRIMainstream model denotes models with sales of more than 30,000 units in China in 2023;the denominator of the penetration rate is the model itself,while the numerator is the actual value of variablethis better reflects the conditions of the said model,so we are not going to do horiz

78、ontal comparisonTop 20 Mainstream Models by Family Car Buyer Penetration 202394.75%94.39%94.28%94.12%93.99%93.95%93.63%92.45%91.88%91.69%91.33%91.31%91.22%90.91%90.79%89.75%89.46%89.23%88.38%88.11%Buick GL8Li Auto L9SiennaGAC Trumpchi M8GranviaOdysseyLi Auto L8HighlanderDenza D9GAC Grumpchi GS8Qin N

79、EVHongqi E-QM5Haval M6Crown KlugerSantanaGAC Trumpchi M6ID.4 CROZZWuling Hongguang SSong Pro NEVBEIJING EU5In 2023,BYD quickly dominated the“new family car market”still in itsformation stage,but much more potential remains to be tapped by BYDIn 2023,BYDs market share in Chinas family car market rose

80、 to 11.47%,surpassing Volkswagen(10.41%)and Toyota(8.41%)seemingly overnight.Multiple BYD models such as the Qin PLUS,Song PLUS,Dolphin,Yuan PLUS,Han,Song Pro and Seagull are among the top 20 mainstream models in family car market share,but only three Volkswagen models Lavida,Sagitar and Passat rema

81、in in the rankings and are in danger of disappearing from the list all together;Though BYD quickly rose to the top of the world in Chinas“new family car market”that was still in its formation stage in 2023,and this market helped propel BYD into a global top 10 carmaker,there is a lot more potential

82、to be tapped in the biggest segment of Chinas car market.As of the end of 2023,BYD did not yet have products specifically catered to the“new family car market.”The Qin PLUS and Song PLUS are entry level family products with low-value add,and the Han and Tang,despite them being mainstream quality pro

83、ducts,are facing significant competitive challenges as sales stumbled in 2023.In the second half of 2024,BYD will launch a series of new models dedicated to the“new family car market”such as the Tang MAX,Tang L,Denza N8 MAX,Denza N9 and Fang Cheng Bao 8;BYD will most likely deploy the same pricing t

84、actics on these“new family car market”products as those on the Champion editions in 2023 and the Honor editions in 2024:drive down the throat of competitors and not give them any breathing room.If prices for the Tang MAX mid to large MPV and the Tang L mid to large SUV get down into the RMB200K-250K

85、 range,high-end PHEVs to be launched from many joint ventures wont stand a chance,and even AITO and Li Auto could be seriously impacted.Source:YRIMainstream brand denotes brands with sales of more than 30,000 units in China in 2023;market share denote variable as a percentage of total industry sales

86、Source:YRIMainstream model denotes models with sales of more than 30,000 units in China in 2023;market share denote variable as a percentage of total industry salesTop 20 Mainstream Models in Family Car Market Share 2023Top 20 Mainstream Brands in Family Car Market Share 20238.41%5.33%4.05%3.78%3.47

87、%3.36%3.30%3.17%2.99%2.68%2.45%2.40%2.21%2.05%1.92%1.78%1.75%1.10%11.47%10.41%1.95%1.88%1.84%1.82%1.59%1.36%1.36%1.25%1.11%1.10%1.05%1.04%1.00%1.00%0.99%0.98%0.96%0.95%0.89%0.87%BYDVWToyotaHondaGeelyChanganBMWMercedesNissanWulingAudiBuickTeslaHavalGAC AIONLi AutoCheryGAC TrumpchiHongqiHyundaiQin PLU

88、S NEVModel YSylphySong PLUS NEVLavidaSagitarDolphinYuan PLUSCamryHaval H6AION YAION SHongguang MINIEVHonda CR-VHanSong Pro NEVChangan CS75 PLUSSeagullPassatCorollaIn 2023,most carmakers realized the“new family opportunity,”the 2024 Beijing Auto Show brought“new family products”ontocenter stageOver t

89、he past decade or so,Chinas family car market shifted from a market that was dominated by economy bland products to one that is dominated by mainstream quality,grand&high-end and streamlined&sporty products that are more high-end and diversified,and this trend will likely continue over the next 5-10

90、 years.Data from family users with plans to purchase cars in 2023 showed that the share of those that wanted to buy mainstream quality models surpassed those that wanted to buy economy bland models,share of those that wanted to buy grand&high-end models neared those that wanted to buy economy bland

91、models,while desire for both streamlined&sporty and off-road&macho products took off.Based on these trends,over the next 5-10 years,the“new family car market”will be dominated by mainstream quality,grand&high-end,streamlined&sporty and off-road&macho products.The first two types of products will cat

92、er to consumption upgrade needs of family users with mainstream quality products addressing young families and grand&high-end products addressing middle-aged families,while the remaining two types of products cater to diversi-fied needs of family users with the off-road&macho products addressing dis

93、tinctive needs from male buyers and streamlined&sporty products addressing distinctive needs from female buyers;At the 2024 Beijing Auto Show,new off-road&macho,streamlined&sporty,mainstream quality and grand&high-end products better catered to the“new family car market”took center stage,rather than

94、 the once-popular economy bland products.The only thing really missing is“price is right.”If more mainstream quality and grand&high-end products are launched to market at around RMB150K and RMB200K respectively over the next two years,the“new family car market”will take off.Source:YRIEvolution of Ch

95、inas Car Market by Product Characteristic 2014-2023New Family Car Market Product Evolution:High-End and Diversified0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2014202320172020Purchase Intent in 2023Economy BlandMainstream QualityGrand&High-EndOff-Road&MachoStreamlined&SportyEconomy BlandMainstream QualityGrand&High-EndS

96、treamlined&SportyRefined&StylishSmall&CuteOff-Road&MachoPremium BusinessElite&LuxurySturdy&CommercialTech&SimpleElegant&RetroAvant GardeChinas“new family car market”will enter a crucial developmentphase in 2024-2030 that will see two major battles:one among theChinese carmakers and one between the C

97、hinese and foreignercarmakers,reshaping the competitive landscape in both Chinaand the rest of the worldChinas“new family car market”emerged in 2021-2023 as middle-aged buyers with high educa-tion levels dominated the market and more female and middle-class buyers drove growth,while products became

98、more high-end and diversified.BYD capitalized on this trend by launching relevant models to market,surpassing Volkswagen to become the new leading brand in Chinas family car market.This propelled BYD to become the top selling brand in China and a top 10 global carmaker;Chinas“new family car market”i

99、s expected to enter a rapid growth phase in 2024-2026 that will likely see two major battles:one among the Chinese carmakers and one between the Chinese and foreign carmakers.The former is about who gets to dominate and the latter is about specific rankings.During this phase,joint ventures will risk

100、 losing significant market share if their strategic and product planning cannot keep up with the evolution of the“new family car market.”Its entirely possible that their market share fall to 10%from 40%as BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu predicted,reshaping the competitive landscape of both China and globa

101、lly.Though the JVs are proactively responding to market changes and will launch a slew of energy-saving products including PHEVs over the next 2-3 years,many of them are making the mistake of taking the wrong actions without attention to changes in cirumstances because most of the energy-saving tech

102、nologies that will come to market from these JVs will only address existing challenges,but over the next 2-3 years,energy-saving technologies from Chinese brands will continue to see breakthroughs,such as products with overall range of 2,000 km or more that could become mainstream.JVs might be at a

103、loss again;Chinas“new family car market”is expected to enter a maturing phase in 2027-2030 with a relatively stable competitive landscape.Post-2030,when the first generation of car buyers born in the 80s reach beyond the age of 50,Chinas car market could enter into a new phase of consumption(a diffe

104、rent topic for discussion);Though the share of singles buyers will continue to rise in Chinas car market in 2024-2030,married buyers will remain as the dominant buying force accounting for at least 65%of industry sales equivalent to annual sales of 10 million units.Proactively addressing the“new fam

105、ily car market”will be crucial for any mainstream carmaker that wants to be successful in China.Source:YRINew Family Car Market CharacteristicsChina PV Family Car Buyer Penetration 2014-2030Economy BlandMainstreamQualityGrand&High-EndOff-Road&MachoStreamlined&SportyHighEducationLevelNew FamilyCar Bu

106、yerMiddle-AgeMiddle-ClassFemaleUser:Four TrendsProduct:High-End&Diversified0%20%40%60%80%100%201420162018202020222024E2026E2028E2030EFamily CarMarket TransitionNew Family CarMarket FormationPreviousGeneration:Family CarDominatesNew FamilyCar MarketDevelopmentNew FamilyCar MarketMaturesNew FamilyCar

107、MarketDeclineThis report is produced by Yiche Research Institute.All text,pictures andtables are protected by relevant trademark and copyright laws.Some textand data are collected from public information and are therefore owned bythe original author(s);No organization or individual may reproduce,cop

108、y,publish or quote in anyform the content of this report without the prior consent of Yiche ResearchInstitute;For reprint or quotation of content,please contact us in advance and citesource.No quotations of modifications or abridgements of the originalcontent are permitted.Copyright DisclaimerCurren

109、tly YRI does not publish reports for commercial purposes,we mainly helpempower customers like OEMs and dealers;YRI prides itself on its rich data and the ability to speak the facts based on these data;Everyone has different views,therefore we welcome comments and feedback onour own views.Lets agree

110、to disagree.YRI positioning:non-commercial digital car market think tankYRI mission:help Yiche customers better understand Chinascar marketCommunications(Media,etc.)Extract（Survey/Consulting/Association/Investment Banking）Target Audience（OEM/Dealer/Investment）Traffic,Leads,Conversion,TransactionAd,M

111、embership,Collection,ActivityReceive Basic InformationGain Core PerspectivesReport,Advisory,Suggestion,Diagnostics,System Info,etc.Service FeeGain Trust&CustomersShare Knowledge&OpportunitiesShareKnowledge&OpportunitiesGain Trust&CustomersGain Trust&CustomersShare Knowledge&OpportunitiesNew Species(

112、non-commercial digital think tank)Pro:WideAudienceCon:Limitedin DepthNature:TrafficConversionEffect:BoostSalesPro:Complementary;Con:Cooperation LimitedNature:Communication of Views;Effect:Elevate InfluenceThe media&thepress arestrengthening dataanalysis andindustry authority,as well as elevatingcoop

113、eration withOEMs.Case inpoint:Yicheforming YRI.Entities likeconsulting firmsarestrengtheningdata miningcapabilities andindustryauthority,andimprovingindustrycredibility andcustomerinfluence,likethe McKinseyQuarterlyValue：Guidance for the massmedia:realize long-term interaction;Cooperation forcommerc

114、ial extraction:facilitate long-termcollaboration;Trust for customers:build long-termcooperationTraits:CommunicationsConsciousness,ExtractionCapability,Audience BaseAuto Industry Dialogue Tour Insights Clear as Blazing FireCore Topic:Analyzing Chinese Car Buyer Characteristics&TrendsTime:May-July 202

115、4Target:primarily Yiche customers including OEMs,one on one discussionSignup at WeChat:yicheresearch please provide name,position,company and cell phone#)-a New Book from Yiche Research Institutes Industry Analysis Series gives a deeper look atChinese car buyer characteristics and consumption potent

116、ial centered on the customer journey from purchase to use,covering key metrics such as traffic,net promoter score,use case,mileage used,family vehicle ownership data and parking to help carmakers refine their strategies timely so that they can better put into practice their”customer is at the center

117、 of everything we do”corporate philosophy.How to get your book:OEMs,dealers and Yiche customers should contact their Yiche service personnel:Non-Yiche customers please contact YRI directly(WeChat:yicheresearch)From May to July 2024,YRI will kick off its 8 round of“Insights Clear as Blazing Fire”Auto

118、 Industry Trends&Analysis Dialogue Tour,covering the core topic of“analyzingChinese car buyer characteristics and trends”to help carmakers capitalize newopportunities presented by these new trends.thDemystifying Chinas Auto MarketDemystifying Chinas Auto Market(2024 Edition,Part I)Contact UsFollow UsWeChatJuns Market TalkYing Gao，Industry AnalystMobile：188 0118 7009Mail：WeChat：yicheresearch