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美国航空航天局(NASA):2024轨道碎片减缓、跟踪与修复成本效益分析报告(英文版)(152页).pdf

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1、 For more information on the NASA Office of Technology,Policy,and Strategy to view this and other reports visit https:/www.nasa.gov/otps/Office of Technology,Policy,and Strategy Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating,Tracking,and Remediating Orbital Debris Jericho Locke,Thomas J.Colvin,Laura Ratlif

2、f,Asaad Abdul-Hamid,Colin Samples Reviewers:Patrick Besha(OTPS),Marissa Herron(OTPS),Bo Naasz(STMD)May 2024 Report ID 20240003484 NASA Headquarters 300 E Street SW Washington,DC 20024 This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not indicate a commitment or intention,implied or o

3、therwise,by the government to engage in any activity or to enter into any agreement,contract,or other obligation.The inclusion of information in this report does not constitute an endorsement of any entity,or any products,services,technologies,activities,or agency policy.The information contained in

4、 this report reflects the views and opinions of the authors and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of,nor should be construed as endorsements by the individuals or organizations listed in the report.i Executive Summary Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating,Tracking,and Remediatin

5、g Orbital Debris Purpose Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft,placing them at risk.The wide range of debris,from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris,has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris.

6、However,the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown.This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes.NASAs Office of Technology,Policy,and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic

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本文主要讨论了通过技术发展或政策改变来解决轨道碎片风险的决策者面临的挑战。轨道碎片可能与载人或机器人航天器相撞,对其构成风险。文章提出了一个方法,通过计算每个行动的净现值,确定减少风险的最佳行动组合,并定量分析与太空可持续性相关的政策。文章还展示了以美元衡量碎片风险的方法,可以比较看似不可比的行动的有效性。例如,消除航天器意外爆炸的成本效益可能低于改进大型碎片的跟踪或及时推动大型碎片远离预测碰撞。文章还指出,快速将报废航天器从轨道上移除是高度成本效益的,并建议将这一时间从25年减少到5年或更短。
轨道碎片清理成本效益分析 减少太空碎片风险的最佳策略是什么? 快速将报废卫星送回地球是否可行?
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