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1、Economic and Financial AffairsISSN 2443-8014(online)EUROPEAN ECONOMY2024 Ageing ReportEconomic&Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States(2022-2070)INSTITUTIONAL PAPER 279|APRIL 2024European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and economic developm
2、ents prepared by the European Commissions Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs,which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission,the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament.DISCLAIMER The views expressed in unofficial documents do not neces
3、sarily represent the views of the European Commission.LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication.This paper exists in English only and can be do
4、wnloaded from https:/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/ecfin-publications_en.Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2024 PDF ISBN 978-92-68-13780-2 ISSN 2443-8014 doi:10.2765/022983 KC-BC-24-006-EN-N European Union,2024 Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.The reuse polic
5、y of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU(OJ L 330,14.12.2011,p.39).For any use or reproduction of material that is not under the EU copyright,permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders.CREDIT Cover photography:Reporters.be/CHROMORANGE European Commis
6、sion Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 2024 Ageing Report Economic and budgetary projections for the EU Member States(2022-2070)EUROPEAN ECONOMY Institutional Paper 279 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii This report was prepared as part of the mandate the Economic and Financial Affairs Council
7、 gave to the Economic Policy Committee(EPC)in 2021 to update and further deepen its triannual projections of age-related expenditure based on new population projections by Eurostat.The work to fulfil this mandate is performed within the EPCs Ageing Working Group(AWG).The 2024 Ageing Report provides
8、long-term projections for public expenditure on pensions,healthcare,long-term care and education in the European Union up to 2070,based on a common set of assumptions and methodologies.The Ageing Report has been published every three years since 2006.This report is presented by the EPC and the Europ
9、ean Commission(Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs-DG ECFIN)after discussion and agreement in the AWG.DG ECFIN provided the analysis and calculations underpinning the report.Eurostat prepared the demographic projections.The report was prepared under the supervision of Massimo Suar
10、di(Director in DG ECFIN),Andrea Oliveira(Chair of the EPC),Pieter de Jonge(Chair of the AWG)and Stphanie Pamies(Head of Unit in DG ECFIN).It was written by Santiago Calvo Ramos,Ben Deboeck,Nicola Gagliardi,Boriana Goranova and Frederic Opitz,in collaboration with the Members of the AWG(see list belo
11、w).Secretarial support was provided by Laura Crapanzano.The review of Member States pension projections was performed by Ben Deboeck,Miklos Erdei,Nicola Gagliardi,Philipp Mohl,Elose Orseau and Adja Awa Sissoko.The EPC and DG ECFIN would like to thank all those concerned.Comments can be sent to:DG EC
12、FIN-Unit C2:ecfin-secretariat-c2ec.europa.eu.Secretariat of the Economic Policy Committee:epc-secretariatec.europa.eu.iii MEMBERS OF THE AGEING WORKING GROUP CHAIRMAN Pieter de JONGE Ministry of the Interior,the Netherlands BELGIUM Nicole FASQUELLE Federal Planning Bureau Vesna STAVREVSKA Federal Pl
13、anning Bureau BULGARIA Kaloyan KOLEV Ministry of Finance Penka TANEVA National Social Security Institute CZECHIA Zbynek STORK Ministry of Finance Jindrich MARVAL Ministry of Finance DENMARK Sebastian HONOR Ministry of Finance Thor Askov JENSEN Ministry of Finance GERMANY Philipp DYBOWSKI Federal Min
14、istry of Finance Daniel KEMPTNER Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs ESTONIA Risto KAARNA Ministry of Finance Tnu LILLELAID Ministry of Finance IRELAND Colm ROCHE Department of Finance Ciara OCONNOR Department of Finance iv GREECE Eirini ANDRIOPOULOU Ministry of Finance Angeliki ZOULAKI Na
15、tional Actuarial Authority SPAIN lvaro MEDINA GUTIRREZ Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation Aurora GONZLEZ URIEL Ministry of Finance FRANCE Vieu LIN Ministry of Economy and Finance Pierre DE SAINT JULIEN Ministry of Economy and Finance CROATIA Josipa MESTROVI SPOLJAR Croatian Heal
16、th Insurance Fund Alen BUI Croatian Pension Insurance Institute ITALY Chiara RUBINO Ministry of Economy and Finance Riccardo CONTI Sogei S.p.a.CYPRUS Maria MATSI Ministry of Finance Maria NICOLAOU CHRISTOU Ministry of Labour and Social Insurance LATVIA Jlija BURE Ministry of Finance Sandra STABINA M
17、inistry of Welfare LITHUANIA Mantas BUREIKA Ministry of Finance Matas VINKUS Ministry of Social Security and Labour LUXEMBOURG Gabriel GOMES STATEC Kevin EVERARD General Inspectorate of Social Security v HUNGARY Pter MSZROS Ministry of Finance Renta NMETH-SZCS Hungarian State Treasury MALTA Wayne AP
18、AP Ministry for Finance and Employment Anna BONNICI Ministry for Finance and Employment THE NETHERLANDS Joris VAN TOOR CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Jessica DE VLIEGER Ministry of Finance AUSTRIA Susanna SANDRUSCHITZ-FLOH Ministry of Finance Armin HEINRICH Ministry of Finance POLAND Joa
19、nna STACHURA Ministry of Finance Pawel STRZELECKI National Bank of Poland PORTUGAL Conceicao NUNES Ministry of Finance Rita FIGUEIRAS Ministry of Labour,Solidarity and Social Security ROMANIA Ioana GAVRIL Ministry of Finance Tamara NAE Ministry of Finance SLOVENIA Ana MILANEZ Ministry of Finance Lej
20、la FAJI Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development SLOVAKIA Marian ALING Ministry of Finance Peter MARTIKA Ministry of Finance vi FINLAND Olli PALMEN Ministry of Finance Seppo ORJASNIEMI Ministry of Finance SWEDEN Linna PRYTZ Ministry of Finance Jonas NORLIN Ministry of Finance OBSERVERS IC
21、ELAND Tinna FINNBOGADTTIR Embassy of Iceland in Brussels NORWAY Yngvar DYVI Ministry of Finance SWITZERLAND Carsten COLOMBIER Federal Department of Finance Thomas BRNDLE Federal Department of Finance ECB Edmund MOSHAMMER DG Economics Fiscal Policies Division EUROSTAT Jarko PASANEN ESTAT F1 Hannah KI
22、IVER ESTAT F1 EPC SECRETARIAT Fabian LENGERT EFC-EPC 01 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Stphanie PAMIES ECFIN C2 Ben DEBOECK ECFIN C2 CONTENTS vii Executive Summary 1 1.2024 Ageing Report:mandate,general principles and process 1 2.The economic and budgetary impact of population ageing 3 Part I:Long-term project
23、ions of age-related expenditure 17 1.Pensions 18 1.1.Introduction 18 1.2.Typology of public pension schemes 18 1.3.Coverage of the pension projections 20 1.4.Main features of pension systems in the EU 20 1.5.Pension expenditure projections 27 1.6.Drivers of pension expenditure 39 1.7.Disaggregation
24、of new pensions 49 1.8.Sensitivity tests and alternative scenarios 52 1.9.Comparison with the 2021 Ageing Report 59 2.Health care 66 2.1.Introduction 66 2.2.Determinants of health care expenditure 66 2.3.Short overview of the projection methodology 80 2.4.Projection results 87 2.5.Comparison with th
25、e 2021 Ageing Report 99 2.6.Conclusions 102 3.Long-term care 103 3.1.Introduction 103 3.2.Determinants of long-term care expenditure 106 3.3.Overview of the projection methodology 111 3.4.Projection results 117 3.5.Comparison with the 2021 Ageing Report 125 3.6.Conclusions 128 4.Education 131 4.1.In
26、troduction 131 4.2.General characteristics of national education systems 132 4.3.Projection results 134 4.4.Comparison with the 2021 Ageing Report 139 5.Total cost of ageing 141 5.1.Introduction 141 5.2.Projection results 141 5.3.Comparison with the 2021 Ageing Report 148 viii Annexes 151 AI.Overvie
27、w of pension systems 151 AII.Input data used to project health care expenditure 155 AIII.Input data used to project long-term care expenditure 158 AIV.Input data used to project education expenditure 163 Part II:Statistical Annex Cross-country tables 167 Part III:Statistical Annex Country tables 245
28、 1.Belgium 246 2.Bulgaria 249 3.Czechia 252 4.Denmark 255 5.Germany 258 6.Estonia 261 7.Ireland 264 8.Greece 267 9.Spain 270 10.France 273 11.Croatia 276 12.Italy 279 13.Cyprus 282 14.Latvia 285 15.Lithuania 288 16.Luxembourg 291 17.Hungary 294 18.Malta 297 19.The Netherlands 300 20.Austria 303 21.P
29、oland 306 22.Portugal 309 23.Romania 312 24.Slovenia 315 25.Slovakia 318 26.Finland 321 27.Sweden 324 28.Norway 327 29.Euro area 330 30.European Union 333 Part IV:Resources 337 References 338 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.2024 AGEING REPORT:MANDATE,GENERAL PRINCIPLES AND PROCESS To assess the long-term sust
30、ainability of public finances in the EU Member States,the ECOFIN Council mandated the Economic Policy Committee(EPC)to update its comprehensive long-term budgetary projections by the summer of 2024.(1)The update of the Ageing Report,a joint report by the EPC and the European Commission(DG ECFIN),sho
31、uld be based on new population projections by Eurostat.The report is prepared by the EPCs Ageing Working Group(AWG).It was first published in 2006 and has been updated every three years since then.The Ageing Report is a unique exercise in that it provides detailed economic and budgetary projections
32、for the EU Member States and Norway up to 2070 based on common assumptions and methodologies.The report provides a vast set of comparable and internally consistent information for 28 countries.These give insight into the timing of population ageing,its economic implications and the associated budget
33、ary challenges.Such pressures are already manifest in many countries and are expected to accelerate as large cohorts of baby boomers retire,life expectancy continues to rise and fertility rates remain low from a historical point of view.Being a joint EPC-Commission product,the Ageing Report provides
34、 a shared assessment between the Member States and the Commission on how ageing costs might develop in the future,considering the latest information and legislated reforms.The projections are therefore a cornerstone of various surveillance processes at the EU level.They inform the coordination of ec
35、onomic policies,in particular under the European Semester,the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility,the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances and fiscal surveillance under the Stability and Growth Pact.Overview of the projection exercise The preparation of the t
36、riennial update of the report includes two phases.In a first phase,the Commission and the Member States in the AWG agree on the underlying assumptions and projection methodologies(see Graph 1),which are subsequently endorsed by the EPC.These assumptions and methodologies were published in November 2
37、023 in a separate volume.(2)In a second phase,the age-related spending projections are prepared,the results of which are presented in this report and in the accompanying pension fiches for each country.The underlying assumptions and projection methodologies,agreed jointly with the Member States,cove
38、r all key drivers of ageing costs.The EUROPOP2023 population projections by Eurostat serve as a starting point of the exercise.In addition,based on common methodologies,macroeconomic assumptions are prepared for each country.These cover economic growth and its drivers,namely changes in labour produc
39、tivity(total factor productivity and capital deepening)and in the labour force(participation,employment and unemployment rates),as well as interest rates and inflation.The statistical annexes at the end of this report provide a country-by-country overview of the demographic and macroeconomic project
40、ions.The budgetary projections cover four items:public spending on pensions,health care,long-term care and education.They are the subject of this report.For pensions,Member States prepared (1)See Council Conclusions(2021).(2)See Commission and EPC(2023),2024 Ageing Report:Underlying assumptions and
41、projection methodologies,European Economy,Institutional Paper 257.European Commission 2024 Ageing Report 2 projections based on national models,which were the subject of an in-depth peer review by the Commission and the AWG.This approach allows capturing the specificity of each countrys public pensi
42、on system,while ensuring cross-country consistency since the projections are based on shared assumptions and methodologies.Based on common models,the Commission prepared the health care,long-term care and education projections,which were discussed and agreed within the AWG.All budgetary projections
43、were endorsed by the EPC in January 2024.Graph 1:Overview of the Ageing Report projection exercise Source:European Commission,EPC.The Ageing Reports baseline projections are based on a general no-policy-change assumption,reflecting legislated measures.(3)They illustrate what the future is likely to
44、look like if current policies remain unchanged.Nonetheless,projecting economic and budgetary developments over a period of years involves a considerable degree of uncertainty as the results are strongly influenced by the underlying assumptions.For this reason,a series of sensitivity tests and altern
45、ative scenarios is conducted around the baseline to assess the responsiveness of the projections to changes in the main demographic and economic parameters.In addition to the tests covering demographic and macroeconomic variables,specific policy scenarios apply for each expenditure item.This report
46、is structured in three parts.Part I presents the long-term budgetary projections for pensions,health care,long-term care and education.It concludes with the total cost of ageing,bringing together the four expenditure items from the previous chapters.Each chapter presents the baseline figures,the imp
47、act of the sensitivity tests and alternative scenarios,and revisions compared to the 2021 Ageing Report.Parts II and III contain statistical annexes with,respectively,cross-country tables and country fiches.They give an overview of the main assumptions and macroeconomic projections,as well as projec
48、tion results for the four items by country and at the aggregate EU and euro area level.(3)With a general cut-off date of 1 December 2023.Executive Summary 3 2.THE ECONOMIC AND BUDGETARY IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING 2.1.Demographic and macroeconomic developments(4)The EU population is projected to sta
49、rt falling in the coming years while the number of older people rises,especially relative to the number of people at working age The EU population is expected to rise from 449 million people in 2022 to a peak of 453 million people in 2026,before falling to 432 million in 2070.This is a decline by 4%
50、compared to 2022.This general trend at EU level encompasses heterogeneous developments at country level.For instance,in 13 Member States,the population is projected to increase between 2022 and 2070(see Table 3).At the same time,a strong upward shift in the age distribution is expected in all Member
51、 States.As shown in Graph 2 for the EU as a whole,the size of the older age groups would grow,while the younger age brackets would shrink.The few countries where the working-age population(people aged 20 to 64)is projected to increase would see an even greater increase in the population aged 65 or m
52、ore.As a result,the old-age dependency ratio will rise sharply in all Member States over the coming decades(see Table 3).The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the old-age population to the working-age population.This ratio gives an idea about the relative shift between potential retirees and
53、potential workers and thus of how an ageing population alters the balance between beneficiaries and contributors.From about 29%in 2010 in the EU,it rose to 36%in 2022 and would rise further to 59%in 2070,with most of the increase expected already by 2045.Put differently,the EU would go from having n
54、early thirty people aged 20 to 64 for every ten people aged over 65 years in 2022,to having less than twenty people by 2045.Projected changes in the size and age profile of the population are determined by assumptions regarding fertility rates,mortality rates and migration.The total fertility rate i
55、n the EU is projected to slightly rise from 1.50 live births per woman in 2022 to 1.62 by 2070,staying below the natural replacement rate of 2.10 in all countries(see Table 3).Average life expectancy at birth is expected to increase from 78.4 in 2022 to 86.1 in 2070 for men and from 84.0 in 2022 to
56、90.4 in 2070 for women,with a continued convergence between sexes.Net migration is projected to be positive in nearly all countries,at an annual average of 0.3%of the EU population in 2022-2070.Countries long-term immigration and emigration rates are based on a partial convergence to past trends for
57、 the EU as a whole.(4)The underlying demographic and macroeconomic assumptions for the 2024 Ageing Report are discussed in Commission and EPC(2023),2024 Ageing Report:Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies,European Economy,Institutional Paper 257.For Romania,the macroeconomic assumption
58、s were updated to account for the pension reforms adopted in November 2023.The budgetary projections in this report incorporate these reforms.Graph 2:EU Population by age group and sex,2022 and 2070(thousands)Source:European Commission,EPC.1600012000800040000Male04000800012000160000-45-910-1415-1920
59、-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990+Female20702022European Commission 2024 Ageing Report 4 Labour force participation is projected to rise,driven by older workers and women,but not sufficiently to compensate for the decline in the working-age population The partici
60、pation rate of the EU working-age population is projected to increase by around 3 pps.The economic implications of the demographic projections depend on how many people take part in the labour market and for how long.The Ageing Reports labour force projections follow a cohort approach that captures
61、the current situation in each country and the future effects of legislated pension reforms.The participation rate of people aged 20-64 is projected to increase from 79.4%in 2022 to 82.7%by 2070 and from 65.4%to 75.5%for people aged 55-64(see Table 4).The upward trend reflects the combined effect of
62、pension reforms on the exit behaviour of older age groups and the progressive increase in female labour market participation given the higher labour market attachment of younger female cohorts.Still,in most countries,higher participation would be insufficient to offset the projected decline in the w
63、orking-age population.As a result,the number of people in the labour force is projected to decrease by 12%(25 million people)between 2022 and 2070 in the EU or 0.3%annually.In several Member States,the labour force would shrink by more than a quarter by 2070.Employment rates are also projected to in
64、crease,though total hours worked would decline because of population ageing Employment in the EU is projected to rise from around 75%of the working-age population in 2022 to around 79%in 2070(see Table 4).Employment is determined by the population,participation and unemployment projections.The latte
65、r are based on estimates of structural unemployment.The unemployment rate for the 20-64 age group would fall from 5.9%in 2022 to 5.1%in 2070.The 4 pps increase in the EU employment rate between 2022 and 2070 includes a nearly 6 pps increase for women and about 2 pps for men.The employment rate of pe
66、ople aged 55-64 is expected to rise by 10 pps on average.While a higher share of the population is expected to be employed,a shrinking working-age population means that the total number of hours worked would nevertheless fall.The average projected decline in hours worked between 2022 and 2070 amount
67、s to 9%in the EU.As a result,the economic old-age dependency ratio(inactive people above the age of 65 relative to employed people aged 20-64)would rise from 46%in 2022 to 70%in 2070(see Table 3).This means that for every ten inactive people above 65,there will be 14 employed people in 2070,down fro
68、m 22 in 2022 and 16 in 2045.The projected increase in the economic old-age dependency ratio is relatively smaller than the one for the demographic old-age dependency ratio because of the increase in participation and employment rates.Amid a decline in hours worked,labour productivity would become th
69、e sole driver of GDP growth Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.3%on average in the EU in 2022-2070(see Table 4).On the one hand,the contribution of labour to GDP growth is expected to turn negative as of the late 2020s,decreasing by 0.2%per year on average in 2022-2070.This decline results from a lo
70、wer share of working-age people in an already shrinking total population,with a higher employment rate somewhat offsetting the decline.On the other hand,labour productivity is assumed to grow by 1.4%per year on average over the projection period,of which 0.9 pps comes from total factor productivity(
71、TFP)and 0.5 pps from capital deepening.In the updated projections,TFP growth converges to 0.8%in the long term in all countries.Member States with GDP per capita below the EU average are assumed to experience faster TFP growth in the first part of the projection period,in line with past trends.A sim
72、ilar catching-up Executive Summary 5 mechanism applies to the capital deepening projections.The TFP convergence growth rate of 0.8%compares to 1%in the 2021 Ageing Report.Despite this downward revision,the assumptions still imply an acceleration in productivity growth in the medium term for many Mem
73、bers States,considering that TFP growth has fallen back to historically low levels in recent years.2.2.Long-term budgetary projections The budgetary projections for pensions,health care,long-term care and education consist of a baseline and a range of sensitivity tests.Under the baseline,total agein
74、g costs are rising in most Member States,often substantially.Most of this budgetary burden will materialise over the next two decades,when demographic ageing advances the fastest.A series of sensitivity tests is conducted around the baseline to account for the uncertainty surrounding long-term proje
75、ctions.They illustrate the extent to which the projections respond to changes in the main underlying assumptions.In addition,scenarios are run to show the impact specific policy changes would have on the baseline projection.These sensitivity tests and alternative scenarios point to considerable addi
76、tional risks,including for countries with more favourable baseline projections.Baseline projection results In the baseline,the total cost of ageing(pension,health care,long-term care and education expenditure)is set to increase in the EU.Ageing costs amounted to 24.4%of GDP in 2022 including 11.4%fo
77、r pensions,6.9%for health care,4.4%for education and 1.7%for long-term care.They are projected to rise by 1.2 pps over the projection period,to 25.6%of GDP in 2070.The bulk of this increase is expected by the mid-point of the projections in 2045,with ageing costs continuing to rise slightly on avera
78、ge in the EU thereafter(see Tables 1 and 5).Table 1:Change in cost of ageing 2022-2070:baseline projection(%/pps of GDP)Countries are ranked by projected increase in total ageing costs in 2022-2070.Source:European Commission,EPC.LU17.28.31.21.6-0.410.727.9LUMT16.94.42.12.3-0.18.625.6MTSK19.02.81.61.
79、40.36.125.0SKSI22.13.80.81.0-0.35.427.5SIHU16.04.30.50.40.15.221.3HUBE26.83.50.61.7-0.85.131.9BEES23.93.61.20.9-0.65.129.0ESNO30.11.71.23.5-1.45.035.1NOIE12.02.81.51.4-0.74.916.9IELT14.83.20.80.9-0.34.619.4LTCY20.93.60.80.1-0.54.125.0CYCZ20.61.70.21.40.33.724.3CZNL21.02.00.71.9-1.03.524.5NLFI26.41.4
80、0.61.8-1.12.729.0FIAT27.70.41.11.5-0.42.630.2ATDE24.31.20.10.50.22.026.4DEPL19.1-0.21.10.90.11.921.0PLDK24.4-1.40.43.3-0.91.425.8DKSE23.6-0.20.41.3-0.60.824.5SEBG18.20.10.20.20.10.618.8BGRO15.8-0.90.70.40.00.216.0ROEE16.8-0.70.60.7-0.60.016.9EEHR18.8-0.20.70.1-0.7-0.218.7HRPT23.3-1.81.00.4-0.1-0.522
81、.8PTFR29.9-0.90.30.7-0.9-0.729.2FRLV17.2-1.7-0.30.3-0.2-1.915.4LVIT27.3-1.90.10.5-0.8-2.025.3ITEL23.4-2.50.60.0-0.5-2.421.0ELEU24.40.40.40.8-0.51.225.6EUage-related expenditure 2022age-related expenditure 2070pensionshealth carelong-term careeducationtotalchange in 2022-2070 due to:European Commissi
82、on 2024 Ageing Report 6 The projections vary considerably across Member States,for both the time profile and the projected change in spending.A fall in total age-related expenditure is projected in six Member States:Greece,Italy,Latvia,France,Portugal and Croatia.In Estonia,ageing costs would be unc
83、hanged in 2070 from 2022.For all of them,a fall in the pension expenditure-to-GDP ratio is projected by 2070,with a generally smaller decline in education expenditure.Yet,for Italy,Portugal,Croatia and Estonia,ageing costs are expected to increase initially,falling only in a second phase of the proj
84、ection period.For Greece,Latvia and France,the decline in overall ageing costs runs throughout the projection period,with a large part expected to materialise already in the next few decades.Age-related expenditure is expected to rise moderately(by up to 3 pps of GDP)in eight Member States:Romania,B
85、ulgaria,Sweden,Denmark,Poland,Germany,Austria and Finland.For most of these countries,the projected decrease in education expenditure,and sometimes pension expenditure,compensates for the spending increase for the other items.Changes for the different items are limited among these countries.Moreover
86、,in Romania,Bulgaria and Poland,age-related expenditure as a percentage of GDP is currently well below the EU average.A substantial increase in ageing costs is projected in the remaining thirteen countries:the Netherlands,Czechia,Cyprus,Lithuania,Ireland,Norway,Spain,Belgium,Hungary,Slovenia,Slovaki
87、a,Malta and Luxembourg.The impact of rising pension spending in these countries is compounded by higher health care and long-term care expenditure.Looking at the different components,spending on care rises universally but it is pension expenditure that drives the overall change in ageing costs by 20
88、70.16 Member States and Norway would see pension spending increase over the projection period,while a small decrease is expected in 11 Member States.Spending on health care and long-term care is projected to go up for all countries with a minor exception for health care in Latvia.(5)The upward trend
89、 in 2022-2045 extends into 2045-2070,in contrast with pension expenditure for which a trend reversal takes place for many countries(see Table 5).Given the size of the change in pension expenditure and these trend reversals,pension spending drives the overall change in ageing costs between 2022 and 2
90、070.Education expenditure is projected to decline slightly for most countries.When a decline in pension expenditure is projected,this often reflects the impact of pension reforms and indexation rules on benefit ratios.The benefit ratio gives an indication of pension income adequacy.It expresses the
91、average pension benefit in terms of the average wage.Thus,if new pension benefits are lower than pensions in payment or if indexation is below average wage growth,the pension benefit ratio declines because pension income falls relative to labour income.The baseline projection,conducted at unchanged
92、policy,results in a decline in the benefit ratio in nearly all countries,going from 43%on average in the EU in 2022 to 36%in 2070(see Graph 3).As a result,and all else being equal,the pension expenditure-to-GDP ratio would decrease by around 3 pps on average over the same period,mitigating the spend
93、ing pressures stemming from population ageing,as captured through the dependency ratio.A strong decline in pension adequacy might be politically untenable,underscoring upward risks to the baseline projections through,for example,higher indexation than implied by current legislation.At the same time,
94、the projections assume that minimum pensions follow wage growth over time and the build-up of rights under private schemes are projected to mitigate the decline in pension adequacy in the public scheme.(5)The decline in health care spending for Latvia between 2022 and 2070 is due to high temporary s
95、pending because of COVID-19 in 2022.When comparing 2023 and 2070,spending increases.Executive Summary 7 Graph 3:Public pension benefit ratio(average pension benefit as%of average wage)Countries are ranked by benefit ratio level in 2070.The benefit ratio is computed on gross public pension expenditur
96、e.Source:European Commission,EPC.Risk analysis around the baseline Given that the expenditure projections cover a long timespan,they come with a considerable degree of uncertainty.For this reason,a set of sensitivity tests and alternative scenarios is conducted around the baseline.They measure the s
97、ensitivity of the baseline spending projections to a change in the main underlying assumptions(demographic,macroeconomic and non-demographic cost drivers)or a change in the no-policy-change assumption applied in the baseline.Two of them deserve particular attention:Lower TFP growth:the baseline assu
98、mes total factor productivity(TFP)growth,a major component of labour productivity,to steadily increase.Since this implies a reversal of the trend decline seen in many countries in the last few decades,there is considerable risk that TFP growth fails to pick up.For this reason,the projections include
99、 a sensitivity test under which TFP growth converges to 0.6%instead of the 0.8%in the baseline.Less dynamic productivity growth would lower economic growth amid persistent population ageing:potential GDP growth would be 1.1%on average in 2022-2070 in the EU,compared with 1.3%in the baseline.Risk sce
100、nario for health care and long-term care:non-demographic factors may exert upward pressure on costs in the health care and long-term care systems.To gauge the impact such developments may have,an alternative scenario assumes a partial continuation of recently observed upward trends in health care ex
101、penditure,notably due to technological progress.For long-term care,the scenario assumes an upward convergence of coverage and costs profiles towards EU averages.(6)(6)The scenario maintains the baseline assumption that half of the future gain in life expectancy is spent in good health.This considera
102、bly mitigates the demographic effects of ageing and can only be achieved if health systems contribute to healthy ageing,mostly through health promotion and prevention.01020304050607080LVLT HR EE BG PL RO DKIESE MT SK PTSIDE NO FR NL CZ HU LU BEFIAT CY ES ELITEU20222070European Commission 2024 Ageing
103、 Report 8 Lower-than-assumed TFP growth would further increase age-related expenditure for countries with the lowest prospects for productivity growth.In this case,spending would rise to 26%of GDP on average in the EU by 2070,0.4 pps above the baseline level(see Graph 4).The difference with the base
104、line stems predominantly from pension expenditure.The impact amounts to around 1 pp of GDP for Belgium and Spain(see Tables 2 and 7),which use prices to uprate accrued rights and to index benefits.Countries that have been experiencing more robust productivity growth and that are expec-ted to see thi
105、s trend continue,reflecting convergence with other Member States,would be less affected.The same holds for countries that apply full wage indexation in the pension projections since real wage growth is assumed to develop in line with productivity growth so that the impacts on pension spending and on
106、 GDP are similar.The non-demographic risk scenario for health care and long-term care results in considerably higher ageing costs.By 2070,spending would rise to 28.3%of GDP on average in the EU,2.7 pps above the baseline level(see Graph 4).Under this scenario,total age-related spending would rise in
107、 nearly all countries by 2070(7)(see Tables 2 and 8).As a result of the convergence assumption for long-term care,the impact of the scenario is particularly high for Portugal,Lithuania,Estonia,Cyprus,Poland,Slovakia,Malta,Greece,Romania and Hungary.Table 2:Cost of ageing(change 2022-2070)baseline,lo
108、wer TFP growth and risk scenario(pps of GDP*)*Figures for the lower TFP growth test and the risk scenario are deviations from the baseline.Source:European Commission,EPC.Comparison with the 2021 Ageing Report projections Compared with the 2021 Ageing Report,lower increases in care spending and a lar
109、ger decrease in education spending compensate for a higher expected rise in pension spending.The expected rise in total ageing costs of 1.2 pps of GDP in 2022-2070 is 0.1 pp higher than what was projected in the previous report over the same period for the EU.This reflects an upward revision for pen
110、sions of 1 pp,while the changes were revised downward for health care(-0.4 pps),long-term care(-0.2 pps)and education(-0.4 pps)(see Table 6).The pattern of an upward revision for pensions and a downward revision for the other items applies to most Member States.In half of them,the projected change i
111、n ageing-related expenditure in 2022-2070 is higher than in the 2021 Ageing Report(see Graph 5).The biggest upward revisions are for Spain(+6.5 pps of GDP),Lithuania(+3.6 pps)and Cyprus(+2.8 pps).Downward revisions are the largest for Slovakia(-2.9 pps)and Slovenia(-2.7 pps).(7)With the exception of
112、 Italy(-0.2 pps of GDP),which would nevertheless have an increase in the first half of the projection period under the risk scenario by 2070.BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRHRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISENOEUbaseline projection 5.10.63.71.42.00.04.9-2.45.1-0.7-0.2-2.04.1-1.94.6 10.7 5.28.63.52.61.9-0.50.25.4
113、6.12.70.85.01.2lower TFP growth1.10.20.30.70.10.10.00.71.00.70.20.60.40.10.40.70.50.50.00.10.30.80.40.20.40.50.00.20.4risk scenario(HC/LTC)2.93.32.51.31.76.21.74.13.53.02.51.84.63.58.61.94.04.32.62.44.48.94.03.64.32.92.72.02.7Graph 4:EU Total age-related expenditure:baseline,lower TFP growth and ris
114、k scenario(%of GDP)Source:European Commission,EPC.2223242526272829302022203020382046205420622070baselinelower TFP growthrisk scenario(HC/LTC)Executive Summary 9 Graph 5:Cost of ageing and pension expenditure:2024 vs 2021 Ageing Report Countries left(right)of the 45-degree line saw an upward(downward
115、)revision in the expenditure projections.Source:European Commission,EPC.The revisions in total age-related spending are driven by the revisions in the pension projections.With the exception of Bulgaria,actual pension expenditure in terms of GDP turned out to be lower in 2022 than projected in the 20
116、21 Ageing Report given that(i)the economic impact of COVID-19 was milder than anticipated and(ii)high inflation resulted in a substantial increase in nominal GDP in 2022,while indexation of benefits occurs with a lag.Despite the lower starting point,the change in pension spending over the period 202
117、2-2070 was revised upward for all but five countries(see Graph 5).For most countries,the updated demographic and macroeconomic assump-tions result in an upward revision.The expenditure-increasing impact is the largest for Lithuania(+3.2 pps of GDP),Cyprus and France(+2 pps for both).For Slovenia,a c
118、hange in the assumed exit behaviour reduces the pension expenditure projection by 1.2 pps of GDP by 2070 given that,on the basis of current data for younger cohorts,future generations will not have the required contributory period to retire early.Policy measures adopted since the previous report are
119、 a second source of revisions.Over the projection period,new policy measures lower the projected change in pension expenditure substantially in Bulgaria(2.3 pps of GDP)and Slovakia(1.5 pps),while increasing spen-ding in Spain(+4.6 pps of GDP),Romania(+2.2 pps),Lithuania(+0.6 pps)and Belgium(+0.5 pps
120、).(8)(8)The projections for Belgium do not include the measures adopted by Parliament on 4 April 2024.BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRHRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISENO-4-20246810-4-202468102024 Ageing Report2021 Ageing Reportchange in total age-related expenditure(2022-2070;pps of GDP)upward revisiondownward
121、 revisionBEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRHRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISENO-4-20246810-4-202468102024 Ageing Report2021 Ageing Reportchange in public pension expenditure(2022-2070;pps of GDP)upward revisiondownward revisionEuropean Commission 2024 Ageing Report 10 Table 3:Demographic indicators (1)(population
122、 65+)/(population 20-64y).(2)(inactive population 65+)/(employment 20-64y).(3)Net migration as%of total population in the previous year.Source:European Commission,EPC.20222070change(%)20222070change(pps)20222070change(pps)20222070average 2022-7020222070change2022-7020222070change 2022-7020222070aver
123、age 2022-70(3)BE11.712.79%33.753.019.245.466.921.5BE1.531.641.5979.586.46.984.690.55.9116290.3%BG6.95.3-23%36.660.323.645.175.530.3BG1.561.691.6570.582.812.377.787.710.0160160.2%CZ10.710.6-2%34.951.516.640.262.722.5CZ1.721.751.7475.984.88.981.989.27.3471250.3%DK5.96.25%35.456.521.140.356.616.3DK1.68
124、1.731.7179.986.46.583.690.16.555130.2%DE83.984.20%37.455.017.642.962.920.0DE1.531.631.5879.086.07.083.890.06.216312360.4%EE1.41.3-3%34.957.322.435.958.522.6EE1.571.731.6974.384.19.883.089.86.84540.3%IE5.16.119%25.755.629.830.463.833.3IE1.601.691.6580.886.96.184.690.66.093120.3%EL10.47.8-25%39.066.02
125、7.056.280.924.7EL1.411.551.4878.886.57.784.290.46.222200.1%ES47.747.70%33.364.531.246.377.831.5ES1.191.421.3180.887.16.386.591.55.06771940.5%FR68.069.72%38.257.819.749.770.220.5FR1.821.791.8079.786.77.085.991.35.4275990.1%HR3.93.0-22%38.962.223.353.978.524.6HR1.491.591.5474.984.29.381.288.97.714100.
126、2%IT59.053.3-10%40.865.524.760.079.920.0IT1.241.451.3581.187.16.085.591.05.53482400.4%CY0.91.09%26.755.528.831.162.431.3CY1.371.511.4480.586.86.384.690.35.71820.2%LV1.91.3-33%36.061.025.041.075.534.5LV1.531.701.6470.382.512.279.888.48.6332-0.1%LT2.82.0-29%33.172.439.337.286.649.4LT1.441.651.5670.882
127、.812.080.588.98.48260.1%LU0.71.049%23.155.432.330.073.143.0LU1.381.561.4880.786.96.285.090.85.81540.7%HU9.79.0-7%34.554.319.840.462.021.5HU1.621.721.6972.583.611.179.388.59.248260.3%MT0.50.854%30.565.434.935.275.540.3MT1.151.491.3680.987.06.184.690.86.21141.0%NL17.718.76%34.356.322.037.355.918.6NL1.
128、531.631.5980.386.76.483.690.06.4235420.3%AT9.09.56%32.057.025.039.567.427.9AT1.441.571.5179.586.36.884.290.26.0104350.4%PL38.131.8-16%31.963.731.939.080.041.0PL1.391.611.5373.284.110.981.389.58.21001690.2%PT10.49.0-14%40.767.827.048.675.827.2PT1.411.551.4879.686.97.385.090.45.482390.3%RO19.015.0-21%
129、33.555.822.347.978.830.9RO1.811.771.7970.983.312.478.688.59.979280.0%SI2.12.0-5%36.157.521.544.169.725.6SI1.591.691.6578.586.07.584.490.56.11560.3%SK5.54.8-12%28.559.731.235.469.734.3SK1.601.661.6373.484.110.780.489.18.79680.1%FI5.65.2-6%41.262.421.348.470.121.7FI1.391.531.4779.086.17.184.190.46.377
130、130.3%SE10.512.923%36.050.414.439.152.913.7SE1.681.761.7481.587.05.585.490.75.399320.4%NO5.46.520%31.254.423.233.860.726.9NO1.471.601.5482.187.35.285.190.75.636260.4%EA348.2341.1-2%36.959.622.747.170.022.9EA1.481.601.5479.686.56.984.890.75.8399010020.3%EU449.1431.9-4%36.159.123.045.769.924.2EU1.501.
131、621.5778.486.17.784.090.46.4590212120.3%Total population(million)Old-age dependency ratio(%)(1)Economic dependency ratio(%)(2)Fertility rate(live births/woman)Life expectancy at birth(y)Net migration(000)MalesFemalesExecutive Summary 11 Table 4:Macroeconomic indicators GDP growth is potential growth
132、,which coincides with actual growth as of 2027 in the projections.Source:European Commission,EPC.TFPCapital deepeningchange in:PopulationEmployment rateWorking-age population shareAverage hours worked20222070change(pps)20222070change(pps)20222070change(pps)20222070change(pps)20222070change(pps)1=2+5
133、2=3+4345=6+7+8+9678910=1-6BE72.175.83.756.967.810.976.180.34.159.170.611.55.35.60.3BE1.31.10.70.40.20.20.1-0.10.01.1BG75.876.60.868.570.52.079.180.51.371.073.52.54.24.90.6BG1.42.21.40.8-0.7-0.50.1-0.30.02.0CZ81.379.4-1.973.273.20.083.181.5-1.674.775.00.32.22.60.5CZ1.51.71.10.6-0.20.00.0-0.20.01.5DK8
134、0.284.84.673.384.311.083.688.04.475.586.611.14.13.6-0.5DK1.31.30.80.50.10.10.1-0.20.01.2DE80.781.91.273.375.22.083.385.21.975.377.92.63.13.80.8DE1.11.30.80.4-0.10.00.0-0.20.01.1EE81.886.14.373.485.011.686.591.75.177.189.712.65.46.00.6EE1.61.61.00.60.00.00.2-0.20.01.6IE78.281.33.166.771.64.981.685.84
135、.369.074.85.84.25.31.2IE2.11.81.40.40.30.40.0-0.10.01.7EL66.174.78.652.274.522.375.479.94.557.478.220.812.46.5-5.8EL1.11.61.10.5-0.6-0.60.3-0.30.01.7ES69.676.46.857.672.915.279.681.62.065.477.512.112.66.4-6.2ES1.21.30.8-0.10.00.1-0.20.01.2FR74.079.05.056.971.914.979.684.34.760.475.915.57.06.3-0.7FR1
136、.11.00.70.40.10.10.2-0.20.01.1HR70.076.16.150.462.311.974.981.26.253.065.412.46.66.3-0.3HR1.51.91.20.7-0.4-0.60.3-0.20.02.0IT64.871.36.555.173.318.270.476.35.857.976.318.48.06.4-1.5IT1.11.20.80.4-0.1-0.20.3-0.20.01.3CY77.580.83.364.672.57.983.286.13.068.076.18.16.86.2-0.6CY1.61.50.90.60.10.20.1-0.20
137、.01.4LV77.078.01.069.570.61.182.783.30.673.774.60.96.96.5-0.5LV1.12.11.30.8-1.0-0.80.1-0.20.01.9LT79.179.80.870.170.30.184.285.41.275.375.70.46.16.50.4LT1.12.11.20.9-1.0-0.7-0.1-0.30.01.7LU74.574.50.046.350.24.077.678.40.848.453.34.94.05.01.0LU1.80.90.60.30.80.90.1-0.20.00.9HU80.383.63.365.975.59.68
138、3.286.63.468.077.89.83.53.5-0.1HU1.72.01.30.8-0.3-0.20.1-0.2-0.11.9MT81.083.52.554.370.015.783.387.03.855.371.816.52.74.01.3MT2.11.61.00.60.50.90.0-0.3-0.11.2NL82.987.74.873.181.68.485.490.45.075.384.28.92.93.00.1NL1.31.10.70.40.20.10.2-0.20.01.2AT77.381.44.256.567.110.780.985.14.158.669.410.74.54.3
139、-0.2AT1.31.20.80.40.00.10.1-0.20.01.1PL76.976.90.156.860.73.979.179.30.257.861.94.12.93.00.1PL1.52.21.40.8-0.7-0.30.0-0.30.01.8PT77.680.73.165.876.410.682.586.13.669.380.611.35.96.20.3PT1.21.71.10.5-0.4-0.30.1-0.30.01.5RO68.368.80.546.858.711.872.173.11.048.661.012.45.25.80.6RO1.72.41.41.0-0.7-0.50.
140、0-0.20.02.2SI78.380.62.355.172.417.381.485.44.057.376.619.43.95.71.8SI1.61.71.20.6-0.1-0.10.2-0.20.01.7SK76.879.72.964.079.215.281.784.83.167.182.815.76.06.00.1SK1.42.01.20.7-0.5-0.30.1-0.30.01.7FI78.380.32.071.577.25.883.785.61.977.083.16.06.46.2-0.2FI1.11.30.80.5-0.2-0.10.1-0.20.01.2SE82.384.21.97
141、7.882.44.687.889.11.382.286.54.36.35.5-0.8SE1.61.20.80.40.40.40.1-0.10.01.2NO80.882.01.374.572.1-2.483.084.51.575.573.2-2.32.73.00.3NO1.51.20.80.40.30.40.1-0.10.01.1EA74.178.64.662.573.511.079.383.13.865.976.911.06.65.4-1.2EA1.21.30.90.4-0.10.00.1-0.20.01.2EU74.778.53.862.372.310.079.482.73.365.475.
142、510.15.95.1-0.9EU1.31.40.90.5-0.2-0.10.1-0.20.01.3(20-64y)Employment rate(%)Participation rate(%)Real GDP per capita growthLabour productivity(GDP per hour worked)Labour input(hours worked)Average real GDP growth(2022-2070)(55-64y)(20-64y)(55-64y)(20-64y)Unemployment rate(%)European Commission 2024
143、Ageing Report 12 Table 5:Baseline expenditure projections Source:European Commission,EPC.2022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-70BE12.71.93.56.10.40.62.30.91.75.6-0.8-0.826.82.45.1BEBG9.5-0.10.14.50.40.20.50.10.23.7-0.10.118.20.30.6BGCZ8.71
144、.31.76.40.10.21.50.71.44.10.10.320.62.23.7CZDK8.30.0-1.47.40.10.43.02.03.35.8-0.5-0.924.41.61.4DKDE10.20.81.28.00.00.11.90.50.54.30.20.224.31.52.0DEEE7.40.1-0.75.10.40.60.40.40.73.9-0.6-0.616.80.30.0EEIE3.81.72.84.10.81.51.20.61.42.8-0.6-0.712.02.44.9IEEL14.5-0.5-2.55.40.60.60.10.00.03.4-0.4-0.523.4
145、-0.4-2.4ELES13.13.83.65.91.01.20.80.40.94.1-0.7-0.623.94.55.1ESFR14.4-0.5-0.98.80.10.31.90.40.74.8-0.7-0.929.9-0.7-0.7FRHR9.00.3-0.25.80.40.70.50.10.13.4-0.7-0.718.80.1-0.2HRIT15.60.9-1.96.30.10.11.60.30.53.8-0.6-0.827.30.7-2.0ITCY8.22.73.67.50.50.80.20.10.15.0-0.4-0.520.92.84.1CYLV7.2-0.8-1.76.0-0.
146、3-0.30.50.20.33.6-0.4-0.217.2-1.4-1.9LVLT6.43.13.24.30.50.81.00.40.93.0-0.4-0.314.83.74.6LTLU9.22.68.33.90.71.21.10.51.63.0-0.4-0.417.23.410.7LUHU7.72.44.34.30.40.50.50.20.43.50.00.116.03.05.2HUMT6.2-0.54.45.10.52.11.20.62.34.5-0.7-0.116.9-0.28.6MTNL6.51.42.05.70.50.73.81.21.94.9-0.7-1.021.02.33.5NL
147、AT13.70.50.47.80.81.11.60.81.54.6-0.5-0.427.71.62.6ATPL10.20.4-0.24.40.71.10.50.40.93.9-0.20.119.11.21.9PLPT12.22.9-1.86.20.71.00.50.30.44.40.0-0.123.34.0-0.5PTRO8.52.1-0.94.40.60.70.30.20.42.50.00.015.82.90.2ROSI9.83.03.87.00.70.81.00.61.04.3-0.4-0.322.13.85.4SISK8.52.72.85.71.31.61.00.71.43.70.10.
148、319.04.96.1SKFI12.8-0.41.46.20.40.62.11.11.85.3-0.9-1.126.40.12.7FISE7.4-0.4-0.27.30.10.43.20.61.35.8-0.5-0.623.6-0.30.8SENO10.81.21.77.70.81.24.01.83.57.5-1.2-1.430.12.55.0NOEA11.90.90.67.10.20.41.80.50.84.3-0.4-0.525.11.21.4EAEU11.40.70.46.90.20.41.70.50.84.4-0.4-0.524.41.01.2EU2024 Ageing Report-
149、baseline:age-related expenditure(%/pps of GDP)pensionshealth carelong-term careeducationtotalExecutive Summary 13 Table 6:Revisions compared to 2021 Ageing Report Source:European Commission,EPC.2022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-70BE-0.2
150、-0.31.30.4-0.10.00.0-0.2-0.30.2-0.4-0.50.5-1.00.5BEBG0.5-0.1-0.6-0.10.00.00.20.00.00.8-0.2-0.21.4-0.3-0.8BGCZ-0.6-0.10.10.6-0.7-0.6-0.1-0.1-0.20.5-0.1-0.20.4-1.0-0.8CZDK-0.71.20.30.6-0.4-0.3-0.7-0.20.10.2-0.3-0.5-0.70.3-0.4DKDE-0.6-0.6-0.50.6-0.4-0.30.30.20.30.3-0.2-0.30.6-0.9-0.8DEEE-0.31.51.60.1-0
151、.2-0.20.00.30.4-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.31.41.5EEIE-1.3-0.40.30.00.00.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-1.9-1.2-0.6IEEL-1.01.21.00.9-0.1-0.20.00.00.00.20.20.10.11.31.0ELES-0.13.86.60.1-0.2-0.10.00.00.20.5-0.2-0.20.63.56.5ESFR-0.80.11.80.0-0.5-0.4-0.10.00.00.4-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.71.0FRHR-1.70.91.1-0.1-0.10.00.10.00.0-1.3-0
152、.4-0.6-3.00.40.5HRIT-0.8-0.10.90.0-0.7-0.6-0.1-0.3-0.40.4-0.3-0.5-0.5-1.4-0.6ITCY-1.52.12.54.60.30.5-0.2-0.1-0.10.00.0-0.12.92.42.8CYLV-0.50.50.01.2-0.7-0.50.00.00.1-0.1-0.2-0.20.7-0.3-0.6LVLT-1.32.63.50.10.00.20.00.00.20.1-0.3-0.3-1.12.33.6LTLU-0.8-1.30.30.20.10.30.10.00.10.20.20.2-0.3-1.00.8LUHU-0
153、.90.30.5-0.6-0.2-0.30.0-0.1-0.30.20.10.1-1.40.10.1HUMT-1.2-0.40.8-0.3-0.7-0.5-0.1-0.10.60.3-0.10.0-1.2-1.30.9MTNL-0.8-0.30.20.0-0.10.00.0-0.6-0.60.3-0.6-0.8-0.6-1.7-1.2NLAT-0.6-0.10.30.8-0.10.0-0.3-0.2-0.20.1-0.3-0.40.0-0.7-0.3ATPL-1.41.51.0-1.2-0.5-0.8-0.3-0.3-0.70.20.00.1-2.80.6-0.4PLPT-0.82.31.70
154、.4-0.5-0.50.00.10.00.4-0.1-0.20.01.71.1PTRO-5.21.11.00.4-0.1-0.20.00.00.00.00.20.1-4.81.20.9ROSI-0.4-1.6-1.90.7-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.20.4-0.3-0.40.7-2.3-2.7SISK-1.0-0.2-1.9-0.60.0-0.30.0-0.2-0.60.4-0.1-0.2-1.2-0.5-2.9SKFI-0.90.60.60.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.1-0.2-0.3-0.90.10.1FISE-0.80.80.50.1-0.4-0.3-0.
155、4-0.3-0.70.0-0.1-0.2-1.10.1-0.8SENO-0.60.0-0.50.50.10.2-0.2-0.2-0.30.4-0.7-0.80.1-0.8-1.4NOEA-0.80.21.20.2-0.4-0.30.00.00.00.3-0.3-0.4-0.2-0.50.5EAEU-0.90.31.00.1-0.4-0.40.0-0.1-0.20.3-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.50.1EU2024 Ageing Report vs 2021 Ageing Report-baseline:difference(pps of GDP)pensionshealth carelong
156、-term careeducationtotalEuropean Commission 2024 Ageing Report 14 Table 7:Lower productivity growth expenditure projections This scenario does not affect the education projections,which are identical to the baseline in this table.Source:European Commission,EPC.2022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-7
157、02022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-70BE12.72.24.66.10.40.62.30.91.75.6-0.8-0.826.82.76.2BEBG9.50.00.44.50.40.20.50.10.23.7-0.10.118.20.40.8BGCZ8.71.52.16.40.00.21.50.71.44.10.10.320.62.44.0CZDK8.30.2-0.77.40.10.43.02.03.35.8-0.5-0.924.41.82.1DKDE10.20.81.28.00.00.11.90.50.64.
158、30.20.224.31.52.1DEEE7.40.2-0.55.10.40.50.40.40.73.9-0.6-0.616.80.40.2EEIE3.81.72.94.10.81.41.20.61.42.8-0.6-0.712.02.45.0IEEL14.5-0.2-1.85.40.50.50.10.00.03.4-0.4-0.523.4-0.1-1.7ELES13.14.24.65.91.01.20.80.40.94.1-0.7-0.623.94.96.1ESFR14.4-0.3-0.28.80.10.31.90.50.74.8-0.7-0.929.9-0.40.0FRHR9.00.40.
159、05.80.40.60.50.10.13.4-0.7-0.718.80.10.0HRIT15.61.3-1.36.30.10.11.60.30.53.8-0.6-0.827.31.1-1.4ITCY8.22.84.17.50.50.80.20.10.15.0-0.4-0.520.93.04.5CYLV7.2-0.7-1.66.0-0.3-0.30.50.20.33.6-0.4-0.217.2-1.2-1.8LVLT6.43.13.74.30.50.81.00.40.93.0-0.4-0.314.83.75.1LTLU9.22.89.03.90.71.21.10.51.63.0-0.4-0.41
160、7.23.611.4LUHU7.72.64.84.30.40.50.50.20.43.50.00.116.03.25.8HUMT6.2-0.54.95.10.42.11.20.62.34.5-0.7-0.116.9-0.19.1MTNL6.51.42.05.70.50.73.81.21.94.9-0.7-1.021.02.33.5NLAT13.70.70.57.80.81.11.60.81.54.6-0.5-0.427.71.82.7ATPL10.20.50.24.40.71.10.50.40.93.9-0.20.119.11.42.2PLPT12.23.3-1.06.20.71.00.50.
161、30.44.40.0-0.123.34.30.3PTRO8.52.4-0.54.40.60.70.30.20.42.50.00.015.83.20.6ROSI9.83.14.17.00.70.81.00.61.04.3-0.4-0.322.14.05.6SISK8.52.93.25.71.31.51.00.71.43.70.10.319.05.06.4SKFI12.8-0.21.96.20.40.62.11.11.85.3-0.9-1.126.40.33.2FISE7.4-0.4-0.17.30.00.43.20.61.35.8-0.5-0.623.6-0.30.8SENO10.81.31.9
162、7.70.71.24.01.83.57.5-1.2-1.430.12.65.3NOEA11.91.01.17.10.20.41.80.50.94.3-0.4-0.525.11.41.8EAEU11.40.90.86.90.20.31.70.50.94.4-0.4-0.524.41.21.6EU2024 Ageing Report-lower TFP growth:age-related expenditure(%/pps of GDP)pensionshealth carelong-term careeducationtotalExecutive Summary 15 Table 8:Risk
163、 scenario expenditure projections This scenario does not affect the pension and education projections,which are identical to the baseline in this table.Source:European Commission,EPC.2022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-702022 2022-45 2022-70BE12.71.93.56.10.
164、91.32.31.63.95.6-0.8-0.826.83.68.0BEBG9.5-0.10.14.51.21.20.50.62.53.7-0.10.118.21.63.9BGCZ8.71.31.76.40.71.21.51.12.94.10.10.320.63.36.2CZDK8.30.0-1.47.40.71.33.02.13.75.8-0.5-0.924.42.32.7DKDE10.20.81.28.00.50.91.90.91.44.30.20.224.32.43.8DEEE7.40.1-0.75.11.11.50.41.56.03.9-0.6-0.616.82.16.3EEIE3.8
165、1.72.84.11.52.51.20.72.02.8-0.6-0.712.03.36.6IEEL14.5-0.5-2.55.41.21.50.10.33.13.4-0.4-0.523.40.61.7ELES13.13.83.65.91.52.00.81.13.64.1-0.7-0.623.95.78.6ESFR14.4-0.5-0.98.80.61.11.91.12.94.8-0.7-0.929.90.52.2FRHR9.00.3-0.25.81.42.00.50.41.33.4-0.7-0.718.81.42.4HRIT15.60.9-1.96.30.50.91.60.71.53.8-0.
166、6-0.827.31.5-0.3ITCY8.22.73.67.51.31.90.20.43.65.0-0.4-0.520.94.08.7CYLV7.2-0.8-1.76.00.71.00.50.72.63.6-0.4-0.217.20.11.6LVLT6.43.13.24.31.41.81.01.98.43.0-0.4-0.314.86.013.2LTLU9.22.68.33.90.91.71.10.93.03.0-0.4-0.417.24.012.5LUHU7.72.44.34.31.11.50.50.83.43.50.00.116.04.39.3HUMT6.2-0.54.45.11.23.
167、21.20.85.54.5-0.7-0.116.90.812.9MTNL6.51.42.05.70.91.43.81.83.84.9-0.7-1.021.03.36.1NLAT13.70.50.47.81.52.11.61.22.94.6-0.5-0.427.72.74.9ATPL10.20.4-0.24.41.52.20.51.14.23.9-0.20.119.12.86.3PLPT12.22.9-1.86.21.42.00.51.88.34.40.0-0.123.36.18.4PTRO8.52.1-0.94.41.62.00.30.73.12.50.00.015.84.54.3ROSI9.
168、83.03.87.01.72.21.01.33.24.3-0.4-0.322.15.58.9SISK8.52.72.85.72.22.81.01.54.43.70.10.319.06.610.4SKFI12.8-0.41.46.20.91.52.11.63.85.3-0.9-1.126.41.15.6FISE7.4-0.4-0.27.30.61.33.21.03.15.8-0.5-0.623.60.73.6SENO10.81.21.77.71.32.14.02.14.67.5-1.2-1.430.13.47.0NOEA11.90.90.67.10.81.31.81.12.64.3-0.4-0.
169、525.12.24.0EAEU11.40.70.46.90.71.21.71.02.74.4-0.4-0.524.42.13.9EU2024 Ageing Report-risk scenario(health care and long-term care):age-related expenditure(%/pps of GDP)pensionshealth carelong-term careeducationtotalPART I LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURE 1.PENSIONS 18 1.1.INTRODUCTIO
170、N This chapter presents(i)the main features of public pension systems in the EU,(ii)expenditure projections up to 2070 and(iii)changes compared to the previous update.Public pensions represent a substantial share of government spending.Given the direct link between the size of the older population a
171、nd the number of pensioners,projections for the latter and for average benefits help identify pressures on public finances stemming from rising pension expenditure in the medium to long term.Since the state plays a central role in the pension provision in all EU Member States,the projections focus o
172、n public schemes.A broad definition applies:all schemes that are statutory and administered by the government are considered,i.e.pension benefits for which the state is the ultimate guarantor,thus bearing the costs and risks attached to the scheme.The set-up of public pension systems varies signific
173、antly across the EU(see Sections 1.2 to 1.4),complicating cross-country comparisons.These differences stem from historically different views on the role of pension systems in providing retirement income and different approaches on how to achieve this.Moreover,many coun-tries have introduced comprehe
174、nsive pension reforms in recent decades,as reflected in the projections(see Sections 1.5 to 1.8).Section 1.9 compares the latest projections with those from the 2021 Ageing Report.1.2.TYPOLOGY OF PUBLIC PENSION SCHEMES(9)Two of the most common criteria to classify pension systems are the funding sou
175、rce and the covered risk.When looking at the covered risk,schemes can be subdivided into old-age and early,disability,survivor and minimum pensions.In terms of funding,pensions are either contributory(i.e.earnings-related)or financed through taxes(i.e.non-earnings-related or non-contributory).The pu
176、blic pension projections discussed in this chapter reflect this diversity.In most countries,the public pension system consists of statutory old-age pension schemes,based on earnings or contributions.In Denmark,Ireland and the Netherlands,the old-age benefit consists of a flat-rate pension.Other coun
177、tries combine a flat-rate benefit with an earnings-related component.Private pensions exist in all Member States but their coverage in the projections is limited.Distinction is made between occupational,mandatory individual and voluntary individual schemes(see Annex I and Section 1.5).While private
178、schemes are usually funded,the degree of funding relative to the pension liabilities differs.In terms of benefit calculation,three broad types of earnings-related public pensions can be distinguished across EU Member States.A distinction is made between defined benefit(DB),(9)For a detailed descript
179、ion of all pension schemes in EU Member States,please consult the PENSREF database.Table I.1.1:Main type of public pension scheme (1)The NDC is an auxiliary mandatory pension scheme.(2)PS refers to the complementary AGIRC and ARRCO schemes.Source:European Commission,EPC.BEDBLTflat rate+PSBGDBLUDBCZf
180、late rate+DBHUDB DKflat rate+DBMTflat rate+DBDEPSNLflat rate+DBEEflat rate+PSATDBIEflat rate+DBPLNDC EL(1)flat rate+DB+NDCPTDBESDBROPSFR(2)DB+PSSIDBHRPSSKPSITNDCFIDBCYPSSENDC LVNDCNONDC Part I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 19 notional defined contribution(NDC)and point systems(PS)
181、(see Table I.1.1).They differ in the way pension rights are accumulated and how pension benefits are calculated upon retirement.(10)The type of risk covered by publicly provided pension benefits varies across countries.In addition to old-age benefits,most countries also provide early retirement,disa
182、bility and survivors pensions(see Table I.AI.1 in Annex I).The Ageing Report applies a broad definition of public pension expenditure.Although granted for extended periods to people outside of the labour market,disability benefits are not always considered pensions but rather part of the sickness in
183、surance scheme.Nevertheless,for the purpose of the Ageing Report,such benefits are considered to be pension benefits and captured by the disability pension projections.The same holds for social assistance schemes that in practice provide a(quasi)minimum pension for people who do not qualify for the
184、earnings-related scheme or have accrued limited pension rights.Special pensions schemes deviate from the standard regime in terms of eligibility,benefit calculation or higher state funding.They are granted based on a strenuous occupational activity(e.g.difficult working conditions or security forces
185、)or a special status(e.g.certain civil servants or special merits).As discussed in previous Ageing Reports,these preferential schemes exist in nearly all Member States.As the projections are exhaustive,special schemes are generally included in the projections.Box I.1.2 at the end of this chapter pro
186、vides an overview of early retirement ages for four frequent types of special pensions,namely for police officers,army officers,fire fighters and train crew.Several countries have switched part of their public pension schemes into(quasi)mandatory private funded schemes.(11)These are typically statut
187、ory but the insurance relationship is between the individual and the pension fund.Consequently,insured people maintain ownership of the pension assets,meaning that they enjoy the returns and bear the risks.Participation in a funded scheme is conditional on being already covered by the public scheme
188、and is usually mandatory for new labour market entrants.However,the mandatory individual schemes have been the subject of repeated reforms and were even abolished in some cases.In other countries,participants can opt-out of the scheme if they wish,meaning they are no longer fully mandatory.The way i
189、n which countries finance their pension systems differs,with large variation in the extent to which contributions suffice to cover expenditure.Employment-related systems are usually financed from compulsory contributions by workers and employers.Most public pension schemes operate on a pay-as-you-go
190、(PAYG)basis,whereby current contributions fund current benefits.However,public authorities often participate in the financing of employment-related schemes.This could take the form of a fixed appropriation from general government revenues,a set contribution rate or a subsidy to cover deficits within
191、 the pension system.In some cases,the government pays the contributions for low-paid workers.Guaranteed minimum pensions are generally covered by general government resources.Some predominantly PAYG pension schemes(e.g.Finland and Luxembourg)have statutory requirements for partial pre-funding.In vie
192、w of rising pension expenditure,several countries have also created reserve funds for their public pension schemes(e.g.Spain and Portugal).(10)See Chapter 1 of Part II in Volume I of the 2024 Ageing Report.(11)This is the case for Bulgaria,Estonia,Croatia,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,Romania,Slovakia and
193、 Sweden.European Commission 2024 Ageing Report 20 1.3.COVERAGE OF THE PENSION PROJECTIONS Publicly provided or first pillar pensions account for the bulk of retirement income in EU countries.The Ageing Reports expenditure projections therefore focus on public pensions,with an exhaustive coverage of
194、old-age and early,minimum,disability and survivors pension benefits,as well as any other pension-like benefit.(12)In contrast,projections for second(occupational pensions)and third pillars(individual pensions)are provided on a voluntary basis by the Member States.(13)Table I.AI.1 in Annex I provides
195、 a detailed overview of the coverage for each country.National projection models were used to prepare the pension projections in this report,which have been reviewed in-depth by the AWG and the Commission.Given the diversity and complexity of national pension systems,it is difficult to project pensi
196、on expenditure by means of one common model for all Member States.Therefore,the approach of past exercises is maintained,using national projection models to maximally account for institutional features and pension parameters in each country.The use of country-specific projection models introduces ne
197、vertheless an element of heterogeneity in the results.To ensure high quality and comparable pension projections,the AWG and the Commission assessed and discussed the results for each country in-depth.These reviews verified(i)the plausibility and consistency of the projections,(ii)adherence to the co
198、mmon methodology and underlying assumptions as described in Volume I of this report and(iii)whether projections are conform to current legislation,with a general cut-off date of 1 December 2023.1.4.MAIN FEATURES OF PENSION SYSTEMS IN THE EU This section discusses key pension parameters that help exp
199、lain pension expenditure developments.Pension spending is not only determined by purely demographic factors,i.e.the number of older people,but also by the eligibility requirements,e.g.age and career requirements,and the generosity of the system,e.g.accrual rates and indexation variables.Pensionable
200、earnings,valorisation and indexation The definition of pensionable earnings,the way built-up pension rights are valorised and the indexation of existing pension benefits are essential factors for future pension spending(see Annex Table I.AI.2).Most Member States use full career earnings to determine
201、 pension entitlements,thus establishing a close relationship between the contributory period and the pension benefit.In terms of financial sustainability,this leads,ceteris paribus,to lower pension expenditure in comparison to countries where benefits are calculated on only part of the entire career
202、.Considering only the best or last earning years results in higher entitlements as wages tend to rise throughout careers.In countries where flat-rate benefits are the main pension component(Denmark,Ireland and the Netherlands),the pensionable earnings reference is irrelevant.Valorisation rules defin
203、e how past pension contributions are capitalised upon retirement.Sixteen Member States and Norway valorise acquired rights based on wage growth or a combination of wage and price growth.Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania account for the demographic impact on the (12)The Austrian figures include the Ausgle
204、ichszulage and Rehabilitationsgeld.In the case of Estonia the work ability allowance is accounted for.More details can be found in the respective pension fiches for these countries.(13)The Irish public service occupational scheme,which provides pension benefits to civil servants,is included under pu
205、blic pension expenditure in the projections.Part I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 21 contributory base by valorising on the basis of changes in the wage bill or social contributions.Italy uses GDP growth to time-adjust past contributions.Four countries(Belgium,Spain,France and Malt
206、a)uprate rights purely with inflation.The flat-rate systems of Denmark,Ireland and the Netherlands do not involve a valorisation of accumulated pension rights.Another way to look at the pensionable earnings reference and the valorisation rule is through the replacement rate and the income distributi
207、on.Combinations of both parameters will result in a different average initial pension benefit relative to the last average wage received the replacement rate.(14)This determines whether pensioners will be in a higher or lower percentile of the income distribution compared with their pre-retirement s
208、ituation.Countries aiming to preserve the relative position of new pensioners in the overall personal income distribution tend to use the full career as reference for the pensionable earnings and to apply a wage valorisation rule.Alternatively,using the best career wages or an average of final years
209、 as reference for the pensionable earnings tends to preserve the relative income of the pensioners compared to the distribution of wages at retirement.Valorisation rules that disregard or only partially consider the increase in labour productivity lead to lower pension benefits relative to wages and
210、 hence a lower position in the income distribution at retirement.Once new pension benefits are determined,their indexation determines how they evolve relative to wage and economic growth over time.Aside from the replacement rate,the benefit ratio the average pension benefit relative to the average w
211、age is therefore also determined by the indexation parameter.The indexation variable determines whether pensioners maintain their position in the income distribution throughout retirement.In the Ageing Report projections,wages are assumed to evolve in line with prices and labour productivity.A nomin
212、al wage indexation rule thus preserves pensioners relative position in the income distribution since benefits and wages grow at the same rate.On the contrary,partial nominal wage indexation or price indexation pushes pensioners into lower income percentiles.Overall,the generosity of a pension system
213、 is therefore determined by:The average replacement rate at retirement(influenced by pensionable earnings and valorisation rule)The change in the benefit ratio(influenced by indexation rule)(15)(14)The accrual rate and the contributory period are the other determinants of the pension benefit in an e
214、arnings-related system.See Section 1.7.(15)See Sections 1.6.2 and 1.6.3 for a more detailed analysis of the indicators.European Commission 2024 Ageing Report 22 Indexation rules often differ from valorisation rules.23 Member States index pension benefits at less than nominal wage growth,with pure pr
215、ice indexation in six of them(ES,FR,IT,HU,AT and SK).The legislated indexation rule is particularly important for minimum pensions(see Section 1.6.2.).In addition,several countries have introduced automatic balancing mechanisms or sustainability factors,which both affect pension benefits.As shown in
216、 Table I.1.2,four countries(DE,LT,LU and SE)have automatic balancing mechanisms,which would reduce pension indexation if the pension system were to incur a deficit.Another adjustment mechanism found in eight countries(FR,FI,IT,LV,PL,PT,SE and NO)is a sustainability factor,which determines the initia
217、l pension benefit in function of life expectancy.A third adjustment mechanism concerns a link between the legal retirement age and gains in life expectancy,discussed in the next section.Retirement ages and duration of retirement In most Member States,the statutory retirement age is set to rise under
218、 current legislation,often substantially.This reflects either planned discretionary increases in the coming years,including a convergence of female with male legal retirement ages(16),or steady increases due to the fact that legal retirement ages are linked to gains in life expectancy,as is the case
219、 in ten Member States(see Table I.1.2).The average statutory retirement age for men(women)is set to rise from around 65(64.5)years today to around 67 years in 2070.Table I.1.3 gives an overview of statutory retirement ages,early retirement ages and whether penalties/bonuses apply for those who retir
220、e early/late.There are significant differences between countries regarding actual retirement ages and incentives to postpone retirement.Early retirement schemes and other policies to provide pension income before reaching the official retirement age create an opportunity to advance ones labour marke
221、t exit.The presence of bonuses and penalties also influences individuals retirement behaviour.As a result,the effective retirement age is generally lower than the statutory one(see Graph I.1.1).(17)Hence,to ensure that rising statutory retirement ages translate into higher effective retirement ages,
222、governments would need to tighten early exit pathways accordingly,for example by extending career requirements,raising early retirement ages or increasing bonuses and penalties.(16)In 2022,eight Member States had a lower statutory retirement age for women than for men.Based on current legislation,in
223、 future this would be the case only in Poland and Slovakia.(17)The exceptions are Malta,Bulgaria,Poland and Austria,where women retire on average beyond the statutory retirement age.Table I.1.2:Automatic adjustment mechanisms (1)Subject to Parliamentary decision.(2)Pension benefits evolve in line wi
224、th life expectancy through the proratisation coefficient;it has been legislated until 2028.(3)An automatic balancing mechanism is applied in the auxiliary pension system.(4)The legal retirement age is linked to two thirds of the increase in life expectancy.(5)In NDC systems,the benefit is linked to
225、changes in life expectancy through the annuity factor.Source:European Commission,EPC.Automatic balancing mechanismSustainability factor(benefit linked to life expectancy)(5)Retirement age linked to life expectancyCYXDEXDK(1)XFR(2)XFIXXEL(3)XEEXITXXLVXLTXLUXNL(4)XPLXPT(4)XXSKXSE(4)XXXNOXPart I Long-t
226、erm projections of age-related expenditure 23 The average age at which people leave the labour market provides a proxy for the effective retirement age.Graph I.1.1 compares the average effective retirement age,i.e.the age at which people start drawing a pension benefit,with the average age at which
227、people currently leave the labour market.(18)The differences between both series point to a further diversity in retirement (18)Labour market exit ages are based on the labour force projections of the Cohort Simulation Model(CSM),presented in Volume I of the 2024 Ageing Report.Table I.1.3:Statutory
228、retirement ages,early retirement ages and incentives to postpone retirement BE A pension bonus was voted in Parliament on 4 April 2024.BG The latest pension reform included a provision to link retirement ages to life expectancy as from 2037.This provision has not been implemented,though.CZ Statutory
229、 retirement age depends on the number of children.Values for women with two children are reported.DE Two types of early retirement exist:(i)as of 63y with at least 35 contributory years(with permanent deduction)or(ii)after at least 45 contributory years at the age of 64,rising to 65 by 2029(without
230、deduction).IT The standard minimum age for early retirement under the NDC system is reported.SK The statutory retirement age depends on the number of children:weighted average is reported for women.The standard Early retirement is reported:2 years prior to the statutory retirement age(since 2023 ear
231、ly retirement is also possible after 40 years of contribution).SE Retirement is flexible as of the age of 62 without an upper limit,rising in line with life expectancy at 65 years.NO Retirement is flexible as of the age of 62.*Countries where the statutory retirement age is legislated to increase in
232、 line with life expectancy.Reported retirement ages are calculated based on life expectancy in the Eurostat population projections.*Actuarial equivalence is not considered a penalty/bonus.Source:European Commission,EPC.20222030205020702022203020502070penaltybonusBE65(63)67(63)67(63)67(63)65(63)67(63
233、)67(63)67(63)XBG64.4(63.4)65(64)65(64)65(64)61.8(60.8)63.3(62.3)65(64)65(64)XXCZ63.9(60)65(62)65(62)65(62)62.2(59.2)64.7(61.7)65(62)65(62)XXDK*67(63.5)68(65)71.5(68.5)74(71)67(63.5)68(65)71.5(68.5)74(71)DE65.9(63)66.9(63)67(63)67(63)65.9(63)66.9(63)67(63)67(63)XXEE*64.2(59.2)65.5(60.5)67.7(62.7)69.8
234、(64.8)64.2(59.2)65.5(60.5)67.7(62.7)69.8(64.8)XXIE66(66)66(66)66(66)66(66)66(66)66(66)66(66)66(66)EL*67(62)68.5(63.5)70.5(65.5)72.5(67.5)67(62)68.6(63.6)70.5(65.5)72.5(67.5)XES66.2(64.2)67(65)67(65)67(65)66.2(64.2)67(65)67(65)67(65)XXFR67(62)67(63.6)67(64)67(64)67(62)67(63.6)67(64)67(64)XXHR65(60)65
235、(60)65(60)65(60)63(58)65(60)65(60)65(60)XXIT*67(64)67.3(64.3)69.2(66.2)70.8(67.8)67(64)67.3(64.3)69.2(66.2)70.8(67.8)CY*65(65)65.6(65.6)67.6(67.6)69.4(69.4)65(65)65.6(65.6)67.6(67.6)69.4(69.4)XXLV64.3(62.3)65(63)65(63)65(63)64.3(62.3)65(63)65(63)65(63)LT64.3(59.3)65(60)65(60)65(60)63.7(58.7)65(60)65
236、(60)65(60)XXLU65(57)65(57)65(57)65(57)65(57)65(57)65(57)65(57)HU65(65)65(65)65(65)65(65)65(65)65(65)65(65)65(65)XMT63(61)65(61)65(61)65(61)63(61)65(61)65(61)65(61)XNL*66.6(66.6)67.3(67.3)68.5(68.5)69.8(69.8)66.6(66.6)67.3(67.3)68.5(68.5)69.8(69.8)AT65(60)65(60)65(60)65(60)60(55)63.5(60)65(60)65(60)X
237、XPL65(65)65(65)65(65)65(65)60(60)60(60)60(60)60(60)PT*66.6(60)66.9(60)68.1(60)69.2(60)66.6(60)66.9(60)68.1(60)69.2(60)XXRO65(60)65(60)65(60)65(60)61.8(56.8)63(58)65(60)65(60)XSI65(60)65(60)65(60)65(60)65(60)65(60)65(60)65(60)XXSK*62.8(60.8)64(62)66.1(64.1)68.3(66.3)62(60)63.2(61.2)65.4(63.4)67.7(65.
238、7)XXFI*64.5(61)65.4(62.4)66.9(63.9)68.3(65.3)64.5(61)65.4(62.4)66.9(63.9)68.3(65.3)XXSE*65(62)67(64)68(65)70(67)65(62)67(64)68(65)70(67)NO67(62)67(62)67(62)67(62)67(62)67(62)67(62)67(62)MALEFEMALEIncentives*Statutory retirement age(early retirement age)European Commission 2024 Ageing Report 24 behav
239、iour across countries since the moment people leave the labour market and thus stop paying pension contributions does not necessarily coincide with the moment they actually start drawing pension benefits.For example,many countries allow people to continue working upon(partial)retirement.Conversely,p
240、eople might be neither active on the labour market nor entitled to pension benefits yet.The use of different definitions(administrative versus survey data for the CSM,labour market status of disability pensioners,recording of exits throughout calendar year)complicates comparisons between levels for
241、both series.The change in the projected labour market exit age is nevertheless considered a good proxy for the expected change in the effective retirement age and used as such in the projection exercise.Graph I.1.1:Average retirement age,average labour market exit age and statutory retirement age Ad
242、ministrative data are 2022 figures and show the average retirement age based on entries into old-age,early retirement or disability pension;2021 figures for BE,DK,FR and MT;IE is not included since no figures for disability entries are available.Average labour market exit ages(CSM)refer to 2023.Stat
243、utory retirement age is 2022.Source:European Commission,EPC.By 2070,the average age at which people exit the labour market in the EU would increase by around 2 years(see Table I.1.4).This increase 1.9 years for men and 2.2 years for women reflects legislated measures,including discretionary increase
244、s in early and statutory retirement ages,an automatic increase in line with gains in life expectancy or other measures to delay retirement,such as stricter financial incentives or career length requirements to retire early.Higher entry ages into the labour market,because of longer schooling,may also
245、 translate into higher exit ages.The average retirement spell in the EU is projected to increase by 3-4 years by 2070(see Table I.1.5).In those Member States that have legislated a link to life expectancy,the duration of retirement increases by less.The retirement duration goes from the equivalent o
246、f 44%of the working career in 2023 to 52%in 2070 for men and from 56%to 62%for women,though it generally falls for countries with a link.Overall,a larger share of an increasing lifespan will be spent in retirement on average.56586062646668DKNLPTSEPLHU NO HRELDECYFILTESBGEEITATLVMTCZFRSIBE RO SKLUmal
247、eaverage retirement age(administrative data)average labour market exit age(CSM)statutory retirement age56586062646668PTNLNO SEELCYESMTITDKDEEEFILTHRLVFRBEBG HU ROPLLUCZSISKATfemalePart I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 25 Table I.1.4:Average effective labour market exit age -The ave
248、rage effective exit age from the labour market is based on the Cohort Simulation Models cumulated exit probabilities for the reference age group 51-74.-RO:exit ages and related macroeconomic assumptions were updated compared to Part I of this report,to account for the pension reforms adopted in Nove
249、mber 2023.*Countries where the statutory retirement age is legislated to increase in line with the increase in life expectancy.Source:European Commission,EPC.20232030205020702023203020502070BE62.564.064.264.463.064.164.264.4BEBG63.564.064.264.462.563.264.064.2BGCZ62.663.963.963.961.763.764.064.0CZDK
250、*65.365.867.869.064.565.467.569.0DK*DE64.465.165.365.564.064.865.265.5DEEE*63.664.667.068.463.964.767.168.4EE*IE64.364.864.864.864.164.864.864.8IEEL*63.864.666.467.563.764.666.367.5EL*ES64.065.666.466.464.065.666.466.4ESFR62.463.764.864.862.763.864.864.8FRHR63.363.663.763.762.563.263.763.7HRIT*64.06
251、5.266.768.664.565.667.169.0IT*CY*64.064.365.466.763.563.865.166.7CY*LV64.264.964.964.964.264.964.964.9LVLT64.164.864.964.964.164.864.964.9LTLU60.660.761.261.560.961.061.161.5LUHU64.464.664.664.662.963.364.064.0HUMT62.963.463.663.663.163.663.663.6MTNL*65.065.466.667.864.865.266.667.8NL*AT63.063.263.6
252、63.661.462.863.563.5ATPL64.564.564.564.561.661.661.661.6PLPT*64.664.965.866.964.264.765.566.4PT*RO63.263.463.663.662.563.064.464.4ROSI62.463.064.064.062.262.964.064.0SISK*62.863.665.266.862.162.864.566.1SK*FI*63.764.266.267.463.263.765.567.4FI*SE*65.065.866.467.965.065.766.467.9SE*NO65.065.165.365.6
253、64.765.165.365.6NOEA63.864.865.666.163.764.865.666.1EAEU63.864.765.465.963.564.465.165.7EUmalefemaleEuropean Commission 2024 Ageing Report 26 Table I.1.5:Duration of retirement:years,share of average working career and share of adult life -Duration of retirement is measured as remaining life expecta
254、ncy(EUROPOP2023)at the average effective labour market exit age.-The average working career is defined as the average exit age from the labour market minus the effective entry age.-Adult life spent in retirement is defined as the ratio between the life expectancy at the average exit age and the esti
255、mated age of death minus 20 years.*Countries where the statutory retirement age is legislated to increase in line with the increase in life expectancy.Source:European Commission,EPC.20232070change20232070change20232070change20232070change20232070change20232070changeBE20.524.54.024.127.83.751.158.67.
256、460.568.17.732.535.53.035.938.52.6BEBG15.222.16.920.225.55.337.753.716.054.165.511.525.933.27.332.236.64.4BGCZ17.723.35.622.526.64.143.655.712.261.168.87.829.334.65.335.037.72.7CZDK*18.820.01.221.522.81.342.842.2-0.650.448.9-1.429.329.0-0.432.631.8-0.8DK*DE19.123.34.222.426.44.043.651.98.353.260.87.
257、630.133.93.833.736.73.0DEEE*16.619.73.121.923.51.638.641.42.850.549.4-1.127.628.91.433.332.7-0.6EE*IE20.223.93.723.027.04.045.553.47.952.360.98.631.334.83.434.337.63.3IEEL*19.721.31.622.823.91.148.048.00.057.155.2-1.931.031.00.034.333.5-0.8EL*ES20.523.32.824.726.72.049.253.03.860.462.11.731.833.41.6
258、35.936.50.6ESFR22.124.12.025.627.72.153.655.41.963.065.42.434.335.00.737.538.20.7FRHR17.222.85.621.226.25.040.653.913.253.064.711.828.434.35.833.337.54.2HRIT*20.320.50.222.923.50.650.245.6-4.659.254.7-4.531.629.7-1.934.032.4-1.5IT*CY*20.021.91.923.724.50.846.247.81.656.754.7-1.931.331.90.735.334.4-0
259、.9CY*LV14.921.56.620.125.45.334.449.014.647.860.212.425.232.47.231.336.14.9LVLT15.221.76.520.625.75.135.650.214.749.060.411.425.632.67.031.836.44.6LTLU22.726.63.926.130.84.758.768.19.468.179.911.835.939.03.239.042.63.6LUHU15.321.86.520.226.36.136.051.215.251.165.314.225.632.87.232.037.45.4HUMT21.324
260、.93.624.428.13.749.356.87.556.965.08.133.236.33.136.239.23.0MTNL*19.020.91.921.523.62.142.144.72.748.751.42.629.730.40.732.433.00.6NL*AT20.324.44.125.427.52.147.656.79.163.065.42.432.035.93.938.038.70.7ATPL16.423.36.922.628.96.338.555.016.559.777.017.326.934.47.435.241.05.8PLPT*19.822.32.523.225.72.
261、547.250.53.356.059.13.130.732.21.534.435.61.2PT*RO15.822.87.020.826.35.538.755.516.856.868.611.826.834.37.532.937.24.3ROSI20.324.13.824.527.63.149.757.27.562.367.65.232.435.43.036.738.51.8SISK*16.820.63.821.924.93.041.446.45.057.759.92.228.230.62.434.235.10.8SK*FI*19.321.72.423.724.91.245.347.62.257
262、.555.7-1.930.731.40.735.434.4-1.0FI*SE*19.721.21.522.624.21.644.545.20.751.752.40.830.530.70.233.433.60.1SE*NO20.223.33.122.425.93.545.352.36.951.959.77.831.033.82.833.436.22.8NOEA20.323.93.624.427.43.048.354.56.259.664.24.632.335.02.736.738.31.6EAEU18.722.53.822.726.03.344.451.77.256.261.75.529.933
263、.13.234.536.42.0EUDuration of retirement(years)Duration of retirement as a share of average working careerPercentage of adult life spent in retirementMALEFEMALEMALEFEMALEMALEFEMALEPart I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 27 1.5.PENSION EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS 1.5.1.Public pensions Ove
264、rall expenditure projections 2022-2070 Public pension spending is expected to rise,to varying degrees,in 16 Member States plus Norway by 2070.The pension projections cover the period up to 2070,starting from base year 2022.Pension spending would rise by 0.4 pps of GDP on average in the EU over this
265、period.The biggest increase is projected for Luxembourg,at about 8 pps of GDP(see Graph I.1.2).At unchanged policy,an increase of 2 percentage points of GDP or more is also expected for Malta,Hungary,Slovenia,Cyprus,Spain,Belgium,Lithuania,Slovakia,Ireland and the Netherlands.Czechia,Norway,Finland
266、and Germany would see pension expenditure increase by between 1 and 2 pps of GDP.Minor increases are projected for Austria and Bulgaria.Conversely,11 Member States are expected to experience an overall decline in public pension expenditure.The largest decrease is projected for Greece,at-2.5 pps of G
267、DP,followed by Italy,Portugal,Latvia and Denmark,with a decrease of between 1 and 2 pps of GDP.Six other Member States would see spending fall by less than 1 pp,namely France,Romania,Estonia,Croatia,Poland and Sweden.Spending would rise considerably during the first part of the projection period,wit
268、h pressures abating thereafter on average.Breaking down the projection period into 2022-2045 and 2045-2070 shows that expenditure would rise by 0.7 pps of GDP on average in the first half,followed by a 0.3 pps decrease in the second part(see Table I.1.6).Pension spending would increase in a large ma
269、jority of countries over the next few decades.This includes several of the countries for which expenditure would fall over the full projection period,such as Italy,Portugal and Romania.In the period up to 2045,the largest spending hike is expected for Spain,at almost 4 pps of GDP,followed by Lithuan
270、ia,Slovenia,Portugal,Slovakia,Cyprus and Luxembourg,with an increase of 2.5 to about 3 pps of GDP.Declines are limited in this first period both in number and size:Bulgaria,Greece,France,Latvia,Malta,Finland and Sweden would see pension spending fall in 2022-2045,with a maximum decrease of 0.8 pps o
271、f GDP in Latvia.In 2045-2070,changes range from-4.7 pps of GDP in Portugal to+5.7 pps in Luxembourg.In most countries spending continues to increase in this period,though they are fewer and,except for Luxembourg and Malta,the size of the increase is smaller.In Bulgaria,Finland and Sweden spending wo
272、uld increase after having fallen in 2022-2045.In twelve countries expenditure is projected to fall in the second half of the projection period.For Greece,France and Latvia a decline in pension spending is projected in both 2022-2045 and 2045-2070.Graph I.1.2:Change in gross public pension expenditur
273、e 2022-2070(baseline,pps of GDP)Source:European Commission,EPC.-2.5-1.9-1.8-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.2-0.2-0.20.10.40.40.61.21.41.71.72.02.82.83.23.53.63.63.84.34.48.3-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0ELITPTLVDKFRROEEHRPLSEBGATEUEADEFINOCZNLIESKLTBEESCYSIHUMTLUEuropean Commission 2024 Ageing Report 28 While sharp
274、 increases in expenditure help trace sustainability risks,expenditure levels need to be factored in as well.Countries with a similar increase in pension expenditure do not necessarily face equal risks if current spending on pension benefits or total government spending differs.In addition,revenue de
275、velopments and adequacy considerations play a role as well.Graph I.1.3 compares spending levels in 2022 and 2070 to the average spending in the EU:Countries located in the upper-right quadrant have a higher public pension expenditure level than the EU average,both in 2022 and 2070.Those situated rig
276、ht of the 45-degree line in this quadrant(Finland,Belgium and Spain)show a larger than average increase over the projection period.Conversely,a projected decrease in the pension expenditure-to-GDP ratio moves Greece,France and Italy closer to the EU average by 2070.Several of the countries with the
277、biggest projected overall increase start from a comparatively low level.This is especially the case for Malta,Lithuania,Hungary and Cyprus and,to a lesser extent,Luxembourg and Slovenia.At 17.5%of GDP,Luxembourg would nevertheless have the highest pension expenditure ratio of all Member States in 20
278、70,followed by Spain with 16.7%and Belgium with 16.2%.Table I.1.6:Level and change in gross public pension expenditure(baseline,%/pps of GDP)AT:figures include the Ausgleichszulage and Rehabilitationsgeld.Source:European Commission,EPC.BE12.71.914.61.616.23.5BEBG9.5-0.19.30.39.60.1BGCZ8.71.310.00.41
279、0.41.7CZDK8.30.08.3-1.56.8-1.4DKDE10.20.811.00.411.41.2DEEE7.40.17.5-0.86.7-0.7EEIE3.81.75.51.16.62.8IEEL14.5-0.514.0-2.012.0-2.5ELES13.13.816.9-0.216.73.6ESFR14.4-0.513.9-0.313.6-0.9FRHR9.00.39.3-0.58.8-0.2HRIT15.60.916.5-2.813.7-1.9ITCY8.22.710.91.011.83.6CYLV7.2-0.86.3-0.95.4-1.7LVLT6.43.19.60.19
280、.73.2LTLU9.22.611.85.717.58.3LUHU7.72.410.21.812.04.3HUMT6.2-0.55.64.910.54.4MTNL6.51.47.90.68.52.0NLAT13.70.514.2-0.114.00.4ATPL10.20.410.6-0.510.1-0.2PLPT12.22.915.1-4.710.4-1.8PTRO8.52.110.6-3.07.6-0.9ROSI9.83.012.80.913.73.8SISK8.52.711.20.111.32.8SKFI12.8-0.412.31.814.11.4FISE7.4-0.47.00.27.2-0
281、.2SENO10.81.212.00.512.51.7NOEA11.90.912.7-0.212.50.6EAEU11.40.712.1-0.311.80.4EUchange 2022-2070207020452022change 2022-2045change 2045-2070Part I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 29 Pension expenditure already rose significantly in many Member States in the years before 2022.Since
282、2000,the pension expenditure-to-GDP ratio rose substantially in Spain(+4.2 pps),Greece(+4 pps),Italy(+2.6 pps),Estonia(+1.7 pps)and Sweden(+1.2 pps)(see Graph I.1.4).Between 2007 and 2022,Finland(+3.1 pps),Belgium(+2.9 pps)and France(+1.6 pps)also saw a strong increase in pension spending,especially
283、 when considering the shorter period during which it took place.The same is true for Cyprus(+1.4 pps)in 2010-2022.For several of these countries pension expenditure is projected to continue rising as discussed higher.At the same time,pension expenditure in several other Member States remained more s
284、table in recent years or even fell relative to GDP.Graph I.1.4:Change in gross public pension expenditure prior to 2022(pps of GDP,available period)-Bars show the overall change in pension spending during the available period;labels show the average annual change.-No historical expenditure figures w
285、ere reported by Austria.Source:European Commission,EPC.0.20.20.10.10.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.10.20.20.1-0.20.10.1-0.1-0.4-4-3-2-1012345ESELITEESECZROPLLVNLDKSIMTSKNOBGLTFIBEFRHUCYLUPTDEHRIEbased on figures for:2000-2022 2003-2022 2007-2022 2010-2022 2011-2022Graph I.1.3:Pension spending in 2022 and 2070:r
286、elative position towards the EU average(pps of GDP difference)Source:European Commission,EPC.BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRHRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISENO-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0difference with EU average-2022difference with EU average-2070EU average 2070EU average 2022Eur
287、opean Commission 2024 Ageing Report 30 Changes for the main general schemes Overall spending dynamics are driven by old-age and early pensions schemes(see Graph I.1.5).All countries that are projected to have a higher total expenditure ratio in 2070 compared to 2022 would see spending on old-age and
288、 early pensions rise.For the EU,the average increase amounts to 0.9 pps of GDP.The largest increase is projected in Luxembourg(8.1 pps).Malta,Hungary,Spain and Belgium also show substantial increases of around 4-5 pps of GDP.For eight countries a decline is projected for old-age and early pension sp
289、ending.Average spending on disability pensions would remain stable in the EU over the long term.Changes are smaller than 0.5 pps for all countries except Lithuania and Slovakia,with increases of 0.7 pps and 0.6 pps of GDP respectively,and Croatia,with a decrease by 0.9 pps of GDP.The decline for Cro
290、atia is due to a gradual disappearance of the large group of war veterans currently receiving disability benefits.Spending on survivors pensions and all other schemes would fall by 0.4 pps of GDP in the EU by 2070.Cyprus(+0.9 pps of GDP)is the only country with a substantial expected increase.It ref
291、lects the introduction in 2019 of survivor pensions for men under the same conditions as for women,resulting in a gradual increase in the number of male surviving beneficiaries until 2040.Survivor pensions are generally projected to decline because of higher female labour market participation and th
292、e associated build-up of personal pension rights,fewer marriages and partial upward convergence in male and female life expectancy.In the case of Romania(-0.8 pps),other benefits drive the decline.These comprise the special pension schemes,on which spending would fall Graph I.1.5:Change in gross pub
293、lic pension expenditure by main scheme,2022-2070(pps of GDP)-IE:Old-age and early pensions include the public service occupational scheme.-EE:Disability pensions include the work ability allowance.-AT:Ausgleichszulage and Rehabilitationsgeld are included under other pensions.-EL:excluding the impact
294、 of retroactive benefit payments.Source:European Commission,EPC.DKLVITPTELEEFRSEROPLBGHREUATFINONLDECZSKLTIECYSIBEESHUMTLU-202468Old-age and early pensionsHRELEECZHUESFRATBELVPLROBGEUDEMTCYITPTNOFISELUSIIEDKNLSKLT-2-1012Disability pensionsROITELPTATMTBEDEEUFRESFIHUPLSEIEEEHRBGLULTNONLDKLVSKCZSICY-2-
295、1012Survivors and other pensionsPart I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 31 over time because some schemes are winded down(e.g.farmers)while others(e.g.security and defence forces)have been reformed in recent years,bringing them closer to the general scheme.(19)Public pension expendit
296、ure:time profile When looking at changes by decade,broad patterns can be distinguished in the projected dynamics for pension spending.In 2022-2030,pension expenditure rises by 0.5 pps on average in the EU,increasing in 21 Member States.The biggest increase would be in Romania(+1.9 pps of GDP),with s
297、pending rising by more than 1 pp of GDP in ten more countries:Slovakia,Lithuania,Austria,Portugal,Norway,Spain,Croatia,Cyprus,Italy and Poland.The projections for Greece entail an expenditure decline of 1.8 pps by 2030,with a smaller decrease in Czechia,France,Latvia,Hungary and Malta.During the 203
298、0s,the overall upward trend continues,though at a slower pace,with a rise of 0.3 pps in the EU and increases in 15 Member States.Spain is projected to see spending grow by 1.9 pps of GDP.Also in Luxembourg,Hungary,Slovenia,Lithuania,Portugal,Czechia,Cyprus and Greece expenditure would rise by more t
299、han 1 pp of GDP.Bulgaria has the largest expected fall,at 0.9 pps.While still rising in 15 Member States between 2040 and 2050,pension spending would decline slightly in the EU,by 0.1 pp of GDP on average.The largest decrease is expected for Italy(-1.6 pps of GDP)and Denmark(-1 pp).Spending would co
300、ntinue to rise considerably in several Member States:1.6 pps in Hungary,1.5 pps in Czechia,1.4 pps in Slovenia,1.3 pps in Luxembourg and 1.1 pps in Spain and Malta,which until then would have seen spending decline according to the projections.Similarly,in 2050-2060,a small decline of 0.2 pps of GDP
301、is expected on average in the EU,despite rising pension spending in 16 Member States.Portugal(-2.8 pps of GDP),Italy(-1.7 pps)and Greece(-1.4 pps)show the largest projected decline over this decade.At the same time,spending would continue to rise rapidly in Malta and Luxembourg(+2.4 pps)and to a les
302、ser extent in Cyprus(+1 pp).(19)Special pension schemes,which should in principle be included in the projections for all countries,are usually included under the old-age and early retirement scheme.Table I.1.7:Gross public pension expenditure-change per decade(pps of GDP)Source:European Commission,E
303、PC.2022-302030-402040-502050-602060-702022-70BE0.90.80.40.70.83.5BG0.8-0.90.10.3-0.20.1CZ-0.71.11.50.4-0.61.7DK1.0-0.4-1.0-0.90.0-1.4DE0.60.3-0.10.20.21.2EE0.4-0.3-0.10.0-0.7-0.7IE0.30.90.90.50.22.8EL-1.81.00.3-1.4-0.7-2.5ES1.21.91.1-0.4-0.23.6FR-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.20.1-0.9HR1.1-0.5-0.5-0.30.0-0.2IT1.10.
304、4-1.6-1.7-0.1-1.9CY1.11.10.61.0-0.23.6LV-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.7-1.7LT1.71.20.50.4-0.53.2LU0.61.51.32.42.58.3HU-0.11.41.60.80.64.3MT-0.7-0.21.12.41.84.4NL0.70.7-0.10.10.52.0AT1.3-0.4-0.70.00.10.4PL1.1-0.70.1-0.1-0.6-0.2PT1.31.2-0.1-2.8-1.4-1.8RO1.9-0.10.2-1.0-1.9-0.9SI0.91.31.40.3-0.13.8SK1.70.60.80.6-0
305、.82.8FI0.5-0.7-0.30.90.81.4SE0.2-0.4-0.10.3-0.1-0.2NO1.20.1-0.10.20.31.7EA0.50.4-0.2-0.20.10.6EU0.50.3-0.1-0.20.00.4European Commission 2024 Ageing Report 32 Finally,in 2060-2070,pension spending would fall in most Member States,though it is flat on average in the EU.This reflects continuously high
306、upward pressure in a limited number of countries,in particular for Luxembourg(+2.5 pps)and Malta(+1.8 pps),while spending falls only limitedly in the 17 Member States with a projected decline during the 2060s,except for Romania(-1.9 pps)and Portugal(-1.4 pps).There are large differences between coun
307、tries in the increase and the number of years until pension expenditure peaks.As shown in Table I.1.7,spending is projected to rise continuously in some countries,e.g.Belgium and Luxembourg.These countries reach their peak only at the end of the projection period and the increase to this peak coinci
308、des with the total change between 2022 and 2070(see Graph I.1.6).However,for most countries,peak expenditure is situated well before the end of the projection period.In such cases,the total change in public pension expenditure between 2022 and 2070 might not provide an accurate view of expected risk
309、s.For example,in the cases of Romania,Italy and Portugal,pension spending would fall by 2070 as compared with the 2022 starting point because an initial expenditure rise is more than offset by a subsequent decline.The expenditure-to-GDP ratio would peak in 2046 for Portugal and Romania,at a level 2.
310、9 and 2.1 pps of GDP above the 2022 starting point,respectively.For Italy,an increase of 1.7 pps is projected between 2022 and the peak in 2036.Graph I.1.6:Years and increase to peak expenditure The graph shows on the horizontal axis the number of years between the lowest point(situated between 2022
311、 and the peak)and the year in which expenditure is projected to peak.The increase in pension expenditure over this low-to-peak period is shown along the vertical axis.Source:European Commission,EPC.BEBG;HRCZDKDEEEIEELESFR;LVITCYLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISENOcountries with peak expenditure in 2070 0.02
312、.04.06.08.005101520253035404550increase to peak from 2022/lowest point(pps GDP)years to peak from 2022/lowest pointPart I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 33 Developments by age group For all age groups below the age of 75,the share in the total number of public pensioners is project
313、ed to decrease between 2022 and 2070(see Graph I.1.7).The shares of pensioners younger than 54 and those in the age group 55-59 would fall slightly,from already low levels.These groups are affected by tighter eligibility rules for survivors and disability pensions.For the 60-64 and the 65-69 age gro
314、ups,shares fall by about 6-8 pps.These age brackets are subject to rising early and statutory retirement ages in many countries.The share of pensioners aged 70-74 in total pensioners rises initially but this is more than reversed thereafter.Lower shares of pensioners younger than 75 in the EU mirror
315、 the rising share of pensioners beyond the age of 75.The latter would go from around four in ten of all retirees now to almost six in ten in 2070.Aside from stricter access to retirement for lower age brackets,this shift also reflects the rising life expectancy across the board,which leads,together
316、with the inflow of the baby boomer cohorts,to an expansion of the 75+age group.When looking at the age groups share in total pension expenditure rather than their share in the number of pensioners,a similar picture emerges.For the EU,pension expendi-ture is projected to decrease for the age groups b
317、elow 75(see Graph I.1.8),thereby compensating for the higher spending on the 75+age cohort.The latter would represent almost 60%of total pension spending in 2070,compared to around 40%in 2022.This change is very close to that observed for the number of pensioners and corresponds to an increase of 2.
318、2 pps of GDP.The biggest reduction in pension spending is for the age groups 60-64(-0.6 pps)and 65-69(-0.7 pps).Benefits of people younger than 60 would reduce slightly,from 0.7%of GDP in 2022 to 0.5%in 2070.The 70-74 age bracket is relatively stable as well in terms of expenditure share.Graph I.1.7
319、:Share of public pensioners per age group:EU(%of total public pensioners)Source:European Commission,EPC.Graph I.1.8:Share of public pension expenditure per age group:EU(%of total expenditure)The bottom table shows spending as%of GDP.Source:European Commission,EPC.0%20%40%60%80%100%202220302040205020
320、60207075+39.644.049.054.057.259.170-7420.120.620.819.218.417.565-6920.819.517.515.814.113.360-6410.47.85.95.14.64.755-593.42.92.42.12.01.9-545.85.24.33.83.63.50%20%40%60%80%100%20222030204020502060207075+4.75.66.36.76.86.970-742.42.52.52.32.22.265-692.42.32.11.91.71.760-641.10.80.60.60.50.555-590.30
321、.30.20.20.20.2-540.40.40.40.30.30.3European Commission 2024 Ageing Report 34 In all countries,pension expenditure benefit-ting people above the age of 75 is expected to rise.Table I.1.8 provides an overview of change in expenditure by age bracket for all countries.It shows how pension expenditure wo
322、uld increase for people over 75 by 2070 as compared to 2022,with the biggest increases in Cyprus,Slovenia,Spain,Luxembourg,Slovakia and Belgium.In a few countries this is also the case for the 70-74 age group.Some exceptions aside,pension spending is projected to decline for the younger age groups.I
323、n particular,expenditure in the 60-64 age group would fall by more than 1 pp of GDP in Greece,France,Italy,Austria and Romania,due to reforms that should reduce the number of retirees in this age bracket.Pension system funding and system balance Under pay-as-you-go arrangements,public pension benefi
324、ts are paid from current contributions and general taxation.Table I.AI.4 in Annex I provides an overview of the different contribution rates for employers,employees and self-employed.In some cases,a specific state contribution applies or a predefined share of certain tax revenues is allocated to the
325、 social security scheme.Some Member States have reserve funds that,under certain circumstances,contribute to the pension scheme.Eventual remaining shortfalls within the system are covered by the general government budget.Revenues of public pension schemes are projected to remain broadly stable in mo
326、st countries,though large differences exist between Member States.As shown in Table I.1.9,in 2022,system revenues totalled 14%of GDP in Portugal,13%in Spain and Finland,12%in Greece,11%in Italy,France and Norway,and 10%in Germany,Luxembourg and Austria.They were less than 6%of GDP in Romania,Croatia
327、,Sweden,Bulgaria and Ireland.The projections assume that implicit contribution rates(contributions relative to the wage bill)either remain constant over the projection period or adjust in line with legislation.Relative to GDP,the largest increases are projected in Ireland(+2.1 pps of GDP),the Nether
328、lands(+1.9 pps),Cyprus(+1.9 pps),Finland(+1.5 pps),Spain(+1.1 pps),Croatia(+0.9 pps),Germany(+0.9 pps)and Lithuania(+0.8 pps).This reflects legislated increases in Table I.1.8:Change in public pension expenditure per age group in 2022-2070(pps of GDP)-EE:excluding work ability allowance.-IE:excludin
329、g occupational scheme of civil servants.-EL:excluding the impact of retroactive benefit payments.-AT:excluding Ausgleichszulage and Rehabilitationsgeld.Source:European Commission,EPC.-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475+BE-0.2-0.1-0.6-0.20.64.0BG-0.4-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.42.3CZ-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.23.0DK-0.1-0.1-0.3-1.
330、1-0.81.0DE-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.30.11.8EE0.00.0-0.3-1.4-0.31.7IE0.00.10.10.40.42.0EL-0.3-0.5-1.4-1.4-0.32.1ES-0.2-0.1-0.4-0.60.34.6FR-0.2-0.1-1.1-0.7-0.61.8HR-0.4-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.11.8IT-0.1-0.2-1.3-1.9-0.31.9CY-0.2-0.1-0.5-1.50.65.4LV-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.8-0.90.3LT0.20.10.0-0.20.32.6LU0.0-0.10.71.41.64.6HU-0.10.00
331、.20.20.83.3MT0.00.00.00.60.73.1NL0.0-0.10.0-0.40.22.2AT-0.1-0.1-1.1-0.30.11.7PL-0.3-0.1-0.6-1.4-0.83.0PT-0.1-0.1-0.5-1.2-0.80.9RO-0.3-0.3-1.5-1.1-0.42.7SI0.0-0.1-0.6-0.60.25.0SK-0.10.0-0.9-0.60.24.3FI-0.1-0.1-0.3-1.4-0.13.4SE-0.10.0-0.2-0.7-0.10.9NO-0.30.10.40.1-0.11.6EA-0.1-0.1-0.6-0.7-0.12.2EU-0.1
332、-0.1-0.6-0.7-0.22.1Part I Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 35 contribution rates,higher government contributions,the interaction with private pillar contributions(20)or built-in automatic system stabilisers.For instance,the contribution rate in Finland is set at a level that covers t
333、he funded part of the public scheme and keeps the buffer funds at their target level.In Germany,the contribution rate is adjusted to ensure that the sustainability fund holds an amount between 20%and 150%of the monthly pension expenditure.Revenues of the public pension system are projected to decrease the most in Portugal(-3.8 pps of GDP),Greece(-2.1 pps),Slovakia(-1 pp)and Latvia(-0.8 pps).Table