美国国会预算办公室（CBO）：2024-2034预算和经济展望报告（中译版）（102页）.pdf

1、FEBRUARY|2024The Budget and Economic Outlook:2024 to 2034Projections at a GlanceThe Federal BudgetThe deficit totals$1.6trillion in fiscal year 2024,grows to$1.8trillion in 2025,and then returns to$1.6trillion by 2027.Thereafter,deficits steadily mount,reaching$2.6trillion in 2034.Measured in relati

2、on to gross domestic product(GDP),the deficit amounts to 5.6percent in 2024,grows to 6.1percent in 2025,and then shrinks to 5.2percent in 2027 and 2028.After 2028,deficits climb as a percentage of GDP,returning to 6.1percent in 2034.Since the Great Depression,deficits have exceeded that level only d

3、uring and shortly after World War II,the 20072009financial crisis,and the corona virus pandemic.Debt held by the public increases from 99percent of GDP at the end of 2024 to 116percent of GDPthe highest level ever recordedby the end of 2034.After 2034,debt would continue to grow if current laws gene

4、rally remained unchanged.Outlays in 2024amount to 23.1percent of GDP and stay close to that level through 2028.After 2028,growth in spending on programs for elderly people and rising net interest costs drive up outlays,which reach 24.1percent of GDP by 2034.Revenues amount to 17.5percent of GDP in 2

5、024,decline to 17.1percent in 2025,and then climb to 17.9percent of GDP by 2027after certain provisions of the 2017tax act expire.Revenues remain near that level through 2034.Changes in CBOs Budget Projections Since May2023The deficit for 2024 is$0.1trillion smaller than CBO projected in May 2023,an

6、d the cumulative deficit for the 20242033period is$1.4trillion(or 7percent)smaller.The biggest factor contributing to smaller projected deficits is a reduction in discretionary spend-ing stemming from the Fiscal Responsibility Act and the Further Continuing Appropriations and Other Extensions Act,20