世界贸易组织：2023年全球贸易展望与统计报告（10月刊）（中译版）（16页）.pdf

1、Global Trade Outlookand StatisticsUpdate:October 2023About the WTOThe World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between nations.Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,predictably and freely as possible,with a level playing field fo

2、r all its members.GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK AND STATISTICS-UPDATE:OCTOBER 20231WTO lowers trade growth forecast amid global manufacturing slowdownA continued slump in goods trade that began in the fourth quarter of 2022 has led WTO economists to scale back their trade projections for the current year whi

3、le maintaining a more positive outlook for 2024.The volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to grow by 0.8%this year,down from the 1.7%forecast in April,while the 3.3%growth projected for 2024 remains nearly unchanged from the previous estimate.Trade volume and GDP growthWorld trade and ou

4、tput slowed abruptly in the fourth quarter of 2022 as the effects of tighter monetary policy were felt in the United States,the European Union and elsewhere,but falling energy prices and the end of Chinese pandemic restrictions raised hopes of a quick rebound.So far,these hopes have not materialized

5、,as strained property markets have prevented a stronger recovery from taking root in China,and as inflation has remained sticky in the United States and the EU.Together with the after-effects of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic,these developments have cast a shadow over the outlook for t

6、rade in 2023 and 2024.The WTO now expects world merchandise trade volume growth of 0.8%in 2023 down from 1.7%in our April forecast accompanied by real GDP growth of 2.6%at market exchange rates(see Chart 1).Trade growth should then pick up to 3.3%in 2024 nearly unchanged from the previous 3.2%estima