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奥纬咨询:2023年度批发银行业展望报告(中译版)(29页).pdf

上传人: Kell****reet 编号:150074 2023-12-28 29页 941.74KB

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1、 BluePaperGlobal Banks&Asset ManagersInto the Great UnknownTwo forces will drive Wholesale Banks to adapt in the next cycle:1)the end of lower for longer rates,and 2)potentially diverging capital standards between the US and other jurisdictions,benefitting non-banks and banks outside the US.Our fram

2、ework assesses the wide range of potential outcomes.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investor

3、s should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,ma

4、y not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting.For more information,visit .Oliver Wym

5、an is not authorized or regulated by the PRA or the FCA and is not providing investment advice.Oliver Wyman authors are not research analysts and are neither FCA nor FINRA registered.Oliver Wyman authors have only contributed their expertise on business strategy within the report.Oliver Wymans views

6、 are clearly delineated.The securities and valuation sections of this report are the work of Morgan Stanley only and not Oliver Wyman.For disclosures specifically pertaining to Oliver Wyman,please see the Disclosure Section located at the end of this report.BluePaper2Dylan WalshPartner+1 646 364 867

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本文主要讨论了全球批发银行业在面临新的资本规则和货币政策变化时的挑战和机遇。主要观点包括: 1. 批发银行业在经历了全球金融危机后,通过重塑商业模式来提高弹性和可持续回报。 2. 当前,批发银行业面临两大新挑战:一是长期低利率时代的结束,二是美国和其他司法管辖区之间可能出现资本标准分歧。 3. 预计美国提出的新的资本规则将使风险加权资产增加35%,可能导致高达400亿美元的收入从美国银行流出。 4. 尽管存在挑战,但结构性更高的利率将推动具有大规模交易银行和证券服务业务的银行的收入和回报增长。 5. 批发银行应利用环境变化来推动长期讨论的业务模式变革,以实现经济表现的飞跃。 6. 预计行业收入在2023-2025年将稳定在5810-6160亿美元之间,具体取决于宏观经济情景。 7. 行业回报率预计在11.7%-14.5%之间,但不同业务线和机构之间存在显著差异。
银行业面临哪些新挑战? 资本规则变化对银行业有何影响? 银行业如何应对新环境?
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