富达（Fidelity）：2024年全球投资展望报告-审时度势把握先机（中译版）（32页）.pdf

1、2Fidelity InternationalInvestment OutlookContentsScenario 1:Cyclical recessionThe economy in 2024 Overview Scenario 2:Soft landing Scenario 3:Balance sheet recessionScenario 4:No landing Asia Sustainability 5391418222630Andrew McCaffery Global CIO,Asset ManagementI have never managed money on the ba

2、sis that I know whats going to happen in 12 months time.I may have a view,but good investing needs discipline,an open mind,and a preparedness to react to the facts as they change.Often,its difficult to understand big economic,social,or political shifts until they are well underway and new trends are

3、 firmly established.Were in the first stages of a dramatic regime change-from low inflation and ever declining interest rates to something different.That something different will come with greater economic volatility and the risk premium for holding assets will therefore be higher.We expect rates wi

4、ll tend higher and returns on equity will be much more differentiated across countries and regions.In this environment I find it more helpful to consider different scenarios:the alternate paths economies and markets could take.My colleagues and I estimate how likely we think each scenario to be,whic

5、h allows us to prepare sooner,spotting signals along the way that either support or refute a given outcome,so we can adapt accordingly.In our Outlook for the coming year,we lay out the four macroeconomic scenarios for developed markets that we think investors should keep in mind as 2024 unfolds,whil

6、e our heads of investment explain what each would mean for their asset class.And what a year lies ahead.There will be an exceptional run of elections across the world during 2024 coinciding with a renewed interest in fiscal policy.There is a political desire to maintain high budget deficits and gove