世邦魏理仕：2023年美国房地产市场展望年中回顾报告（中译版）（24页）.pdf

1、REPORTCBRE RESEARCHSEPTEMBER 20232023 U.S.Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear ReviewIntelligent Investment2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.ForewordJulie WhelanGlobal Head of Occupier Thought LeadershipHenry Chin,Ph.D.Global Head of

2、Investor Thought LeadershipWelcome to CBREs 2023 U.S.Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review,which evaluates how well we did with the forecasts we made at the beginning of the year.Given the resilient economy and persistent inflation,CBRE has pushed back the timing for a potential recession to lat

3、e 2023 into Q1 2024,one quarter later than our original forecast.We therefore have extended our forecast for a recovery in commercial real estate investment volume and stabilization in cap rates by roughly one to two quarters,pushing expected improvements into 2024.Investment volume is forecast to f

4、all by 37%year-over-year in 2023 and rise by 15%in 2024,while cap rate expansion will continue for the rest of 2023,albeit at a slower rate.The later-than-expected start to the recession has also pushed to late 2024 the likelihood of overall office vacancy peaking and average rent bottoming out.Cont

5、inued uncertainty regarding long-term hybrid working arrangements and the economic outlook are causing many tenants to delay leasing decisions.However,the number of tenants currently in the market suggests that leasing activity will eventually rebound once economic conditions stabilize,supporting th

6、e start of an office recovery.Industrial&logistics leasing has surpassed expectations,with total activity on course to reach 750 million sq.ft.by year-end.While higher-than-expected rent growth in emerging markets could push overall rent growth to just under 15%for the year,vacancy rates will increa