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1、NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S.Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy,LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)at www.nrel.gov/publications.Contract No.DE-AC36-08GO2

2、8308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-81483 August 2023 Materials Used in U.S.Wind Energy Technologies:Quantities and Availability for Two Future ScenariosAnnika Eberle,1 Aubryn Cooperman,1 Julien Walzberg,1 Dylan Hettinger,1 Richard F.Tusing,1 Derek Berry,1 Daniel Inman,1 Senu Sirnivas,1 Melinda Marqu

3、is,1 Brandon Ennis,2 Evan Sproul,2 Ryan Clarke,2 Joshua Paquette,2 Thomas Hendrickson,3 William Morrow,3 Sujit Das,4 Matthew Korey,4Parans Paranthaman,4 Robert Norris,4 Lillie Ghobrial,4 Sridhar Seetharaman,5 and Yuri Korobeinikov51 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Sandia National Laboratories

4、3 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 4 Oak Ridge National Laboratory 5 Arizona State University NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S.Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy,LLC This report is available at no cost from t

5、he National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)at www.nrel.gov/publications.Contract No.DE-AC36-08GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-81483 August 2023 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden,CO 80401 303-275-3000 www.nrel.gov Materials Used in U.S.Wind Energy Technolog

6、ies:Quantities and Availability for Two Future ScenariosAnnika Eberle,1 Aubryn Cooperman,1 Julien Walzberg,1 Dylan Hettinger,1 Richard F.Tusing,1 Derek Berry,1 Daniel Inman,1 Senu Sirnivas,1 Melinda Marquis,1 Brandon Ennis,2 Evan Sproul,2 Ryan Clarke,2 Joshua Paquette,2 Thomas Hendrickson,3 William

7、Morrow,3 Sujit Das,4 Matthew Korey,4Parans Paranthaman,4 Robert Norris,4 Lillie Ghobrial,4 Sridhar Seetharaman,5 and Yuri Korobeinikov51 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Sandia National Laboratories3 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 4 Oak Ridge National Laboratory 5 Arizona State Universi

8、ty Suggested Citation Eberle,Annika,Aubryn Cooperman,Julien Walzberg,Dylan Hettinger,Richard F.Tusing,Derek Berry,Daniel Inman,et al.2023.Materials Used in U.S.Wind Energy Technologies:Quantities and Availability for Two Future Scenarios.Golden,CO:National Renewable Energy Laboratory.NREL/TP-6A20-81

9、483.https:/www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/81483.pdf.NOTICE This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory,operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy,LLC,for the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)under Contract No.DE-AC36-08GO28308.Funding provided by the U.S.Department of Energy

10、Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office.The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S.Government.This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)at www.nrel.gov/publications.U.S.

11、Department of Energy(DOE)reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov.Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder:(clockwise,left to right)NREL 51934,NREL 45897,NREL 42160,NREL 45891,NREL 48097,NREL 46526.NREL prints on paper that contains recycled

12、content iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Acknowledgments The authors are grateful for the support of the following individuals in preparing this report:Sheri Anstedt,National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)Joshua Baue

13、r,NREL Mike Derby,U.S.Department of Energys Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office(DOE EERE WETO)Aletta Dsouza,Arizona State University Patrick Gilman,DOE EERE WETO Sherif Khalifa,NREL Eric Lantz,NREL Nicole Leon,NREL Abigayle Moser,NREL Owen Roberts,NREL Matt Shields

14、,NREL Brian Smith,NREL Liam Watts,NREL Jarett Zuboy,NREL.v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.List of Acronyms ATB Annual Technology Baseline DOE U.S.Department of Energy GW gigawatt kg kilogram m meter MW megawatt NREL Nati

15、onal Renewable Energy Laboratory PVC polyvinyl chloride REMPD Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database t metric tons(tonnes)USGS United States Geological Survey vi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Executive Summary W

16、ind energy is one of the fastest-growing sources of renewable energy.The Biden administrations decarbonization goals(i.e.,carbon-pollution-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero economy by 2050)will require at least a threefold increase in the U.S.wind energy deployment rate from current average leve

17、ls of 10 gigawatts/year(United States Department of State and the United States Executive Office of the President 2021).Increased deployment of wind energy technologies will influence the demand for raw and processed materials that are required to manufacture and operate wind power plants and could

18、therefore impact national resource use and physical materials availability,including critical materials.Prior research has performed cross-technology assessments of critical material requirements for renewable energy technologies under low-carbon and clean energy futures,explored material requiremen

19、ts and supply chain constraints for specific types of clean energy technologies,and evaluated how deploying these technologies might influence the demand for certain critical materials(e.g.,critical minerals).However,no studies have yet developed detailed estimates for material needs associated with

20、 U.S.land-based and offshore wind deployment under plausible high-deployment scenarios that would be needed to achieve decarbonization goals.In this report,the authors explore how material needs for wind energy might change under two U.S.wind deployment scenarios:Current Policies and High Deployment

21、.The Current Policies scenario represents a business-as-usual level of wind energy deployment,and the High Deployment scenario includes high levels of wind energy deployment consistent with achieving the goal of 100%clean electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions economywide by 2050.We use the Rene

22、wable Energy Materials Properties Database(REMPD)to project the amount and types of materials that will be needed for wind energy deployment in the United States under each scenario from 2020 through 2050.We then analyze potential U.S.vulnerabilities linked to physical materials availability and pro

23、vide some initial recommendations about new technologies that could mitigate resource constraints for wind energy technologies.We find that the projected annual U.S.demand for materials to construct wind power plants from 2020 through 2050 is anticipated to be less than 2%of global production in 202

24、0 for most materials.Key exceptions include balsa,carbon fiber,glass fiber,nickel,and the rare-earth elements dysprosium and neodymium(Figure ES-1).Our results show that demand for balsa and carbon fiber for U.S.wind energy could reach or exceed current levels of global production in the High Deploy

25、ment scenario.In addition,there will likely be continued demand for carbon fiber from other countries and sectors that are not considered in this study.Thus,increased domestic or foreign production of carbon fiber will likely be required to achieve U.S.decarbonization goals.Annual production of bals

26、a depends on the amount of land that can be devoted to growing balsa in suitable climate regions.If demand for balsa in wind energy applications begins to exceed production,other materials such as polymer foams may substituted.Demand for glass fiber,nickel,and rare earth elements for U.S.wind energy

27、 in the High Deployment scenario peaks from 2038 to 2044 and approaches,respectively,88%,35%,and 50%of 2020 global production of these materials.Although these amounts are within current production levels,if production does not increase there may be more competition for access to these materials bec

28、ause of accelerating wind energy deployment worldwide.vii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.We also consider the scale of demand for materials to support U.S.wind energy deployment in relation to domestic production.The amo

29、unt of nickel used in U.S.deployment of wind energy technologies is already larger than the amount produced domestically.Several critical minerals used for wind energy including gallium,natural graphite,tin,and some elements used in steel alloys(e.g.,chromium,manganese,niobium,and titanium)are not m

30、ined in the United States.Multiple strategies can be applied to secure supply or limit demand for these materials,including diversifying import sources to minimize supply chain risk,increasing reuse and recycling,modifying wind turbine designs to reduce material demand,substituting alternative mater

31、ials where possible,and developing domestic sources if they exist.These strategies are also relevant to materials for which demand from wind energy after 2030 is projected to represent a significant share(greater than 20%)of current domestic production,including cobalt,praseodymium,copper,and alumin

32、um.viii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure ES-1.Annual U.S.wind energy demand for selected materials as compared to global and U.S.production in 2020 ix This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable

33、Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Although the material demand projections presented in this study provide some insight into which materials may pose challenges for wind energy development,there is scope for additional work to better understand likely constraints and possible solutions.

34、The current work assumes relatively limited changes in wind power plant design and related material requirements.Future work could explore potential impacts of technology innovations on material requirements and incorporate feedback between supply chain constraints and wind plant design to identify

35、technology evolution pathways that avoid material supply bottlenecks.This study considers only current production and known reserves of wind energy materials.Therefore,a more complete investigation of future material supply chains could identify additional supply risks(for example,due to changes in

36、demand from other countries and industries,or declining mine production)and opportunities for new or expanded production sources.Further research could extend the REMPD to include additional supply chain risk metrics(e.g.,likelihood of foreign supply disruption,dependency of U.S.manufacturers on for

37、eign suppliers,and ability of U.S.manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption)and perform a more detailed analysis of supply risks.Other avenues for future work include expanding the REMPD by adding information on wind energy externalities(e.g.,emissions from manufacturing and transportation),inc

38、orporating other renewable energy technologies(e.g.,geothermal plants,marine and hydrokinetic plants,hydrogen electrolyzers,or battery energy storage systems)into the database,and performing a cross-technology analysis of material requirements.x This report is available at no cost from the National

39、Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Table of Contents List of Figures.xi 1 Background.1 1.1 Motivation and Goals.2 1.2 Definition of Vulnerable Materials.3 2 Methodology To Assess Material Quantities.5 2.1 Overview of the REMPD.5 2.1.1 Data Taxonomy.5 2.1.2 Wind Energy System Co

40、mponents.6 2.1.3 System Boundary for Scenario Analysis.7 2.1.4 Scenario Analysis Capabilities.8 2.2 Scenario Definitions.9 2.2.1 Capacity Projections.12 2.2.2 Plant Configuration.13 2.2.3 Technology Configuration.15 3 Projected Material Needs for U.S.Wind Energy Systems.18 3.1 Material Intensities o

41、f Current and Potential Future Wind Energy Technologies.18 3.1.1 Variation in Material Intensities for Vulnerable Materials.22 3.2 Projected U.S.Wind Energy Demand for Materials.24 3.2.1 Projected Changes in Material Intensity Over Time.26 3.3 Projected U.S.Wind Energy Demand for Materials Compared

42、to Current Production.26 3.4 Material Needs for Wind Energy Technologies Compared to Projected Availability.36 3.5 High-Level Overview of Material Supply Challenges for U.S.Wind Energy.38 3.5.1 Vulnerable Materials.40 3.5.2 Nonvulnerable Materials.46 4 Opportunities To Reduce Material Requirements.4

43、8 4.1 Material Substitution.49 4.2 Weight Reduction.50 4.3 Other Circular Economy Approaches.51 5 Conclusion.52 5.1 Summary of Approach and Results.52 5.2 Opportunities and Vulnerabilities.53 5.3 Broader Impacts.54 References.55 Appendix A.Biden Administration Objectives.67 A.1 Carbon-Free Power Sec

44、tor by 2035 and Irreversible Path to a Net-Zero Economy by 2050.67 A.2 Role of Renewable Wind Energy in Hydrogen Shot Goal.67 Appendix B.Brief History of Critical Materials Research.69 Appendix C.Data Sources for Life Cycle Inventories.70 Appendix D.Scaling Relationships.74 D.1 Land-Based Roads.75 D

45、.2 Land-Based Foundation.75 D.3 Offshore Substructure.76 D.4 Substation.76 D.5 Array and Export Cables.76 D.6 Wind Turbine:Nacelle.76 D.7 Wind Turbine:Hub.76 D.8 Wind Turbine:Blade.76 D.9 Wind Turbine:Tower.82 Appendix E.Material Intensities for Vulnerable Materials.84 Appendix F.Opportunities To Re

46、cycle Rare-Earth Elements.87 xi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.F.1 Industrial Efforts.89 List of Figures Figure ES-1.Annual U.S.wind energy demand for selected materials as compared to global and U.S.production in 2020.v

47、iii Figure 1.Taxonomy used to organize data in the REMPD.6 Figure 2.System components included in our analysis of wind energy material requirements.7 Figure 3.System boundary used in the REMPD.8 Figure 4.Simplified flow of analysis performed using the REMPD.9 Figure 5.Wind-energy-generating capacity

48、 projections for the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios.13 RFigure 6.Material intensities of current and potential future wind energy technologies.19 Figure 7.Average material intensities for vulnerable materials as determined using the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios.23 F

49、igure 8.Average quantity per year of all materials required for land-based and offshore wind technologies as determined using the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios.25 Figure 9.Average quantity per year of vulnerable materials required for land-based and offshore wind technologies as det

50、ermined using the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios.25 Figure 10.Annual material intensity for land-based and offshore wind in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios.26 Figure 11.Projected annual U.S.wind energy demand for nonvulnerable materials,as estimated in the Current

51、Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentage of 2020 production.27 Figure 12.Projected U.S.wind energy demand for carbon fiber,electrical steel,and nickel,as estimated in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentage of 2020 production.33 Figure 13.Projected U.S.wind e

52、nergy demand for a subset of vulnerable materials(excluding nickel,carbon fiber,and electrical steel),as estimated in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentage of 2020 production.35 Figure 14.Projected U.S.wind energy demand for critical minerals,as estimated in the Current

53、Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentage of reserves.37 Figure 15.Annual U.S.wind energy demand over time for selected materials as compared to global and U.S.production in 2020.39 Figure F-1.Opportunities to insert recycled materials(swarf and recycled rare-earth concentrates)into the

54、 manufacturing supply chain of rare-earth permanent magnets.88 List of Tables Table 1.Vulnerable Materials and Their Role in Wind Energy Technologies.4 Table 2.Scenario Definitions for Material Quantities and Availability Analysis.11 Table 3.Plant Configuration for the Current Policies Scenario Expl

55、ored Here(Derived Using NRELs 2022 ATB NREL 2022*).14 Table 4.Plant Configuration for the High Deployment Scenario Explored Here(Derived Using NRELs 2022 ATB NREL 2022*).15 Table 5.Technology Configurations for Material Quantities and Availability Analysis.16 Table 6.Average Material Intensity of Cu

56、rrent Wind Energy Technologies(2020).21 Table 7.Average Material Intensity of Potential Future Wind Energy Technologies(As Defined Based on Technology Projections and Expert Input Used in the High Deployment Scenario,2050).22 xii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy

57、 Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Table 8.Uses,Sources,Production,Reserves,and Projected Wind Material Needs for Vulnerable Materials.29 Table 9.Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.Wind Energy Demand of Selected Materialsa.41 Table 10.Innovations That Could Modify Material Requirements for W

58、ind Energy Technologies.48 Table C-1.Data Sources and Proxy Materials Used for Background Life Cycle Inventory Data.70 Table D-1.Scaling Relationships Used To Compute Material Requirements Over Time.74 Table D-2.Wind Turbine Blade Mass Scaling Exponents.78 Table D-3.Study Resin Systems,Composite Man

59、ufacturing Processes,and Representative Densities.78 Table D-4.Blade Component Mass Breakdown for Blades With a Fiberglass-Reinforced Spar Cap.79 Table D-5.Blade Component Mass Breakdown for Blades With a Carbon-Fiber-Reinforced Spar Cap.79 Table D-6.Wind Turbine Blade Technology Configurations Used

60、 for the Study Scenarios.80 Table D-7.Relative Blade Mass Values for the Study of Technology Configurations(for Land-Based and Offshore Wind Turbine Designs).81 Table D-8.Glass-Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Mass Fractions for Various Volume Fractions and Resin Systems Using Pultrusion on Infusion Manufac

61、turing.82 Table D-9.Carbon-Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Mass Fractions for Various Volume Fractions and Resin Systems Using Pultrusion Manufacturing.82 Table E-1.Average Material Intensity for Vulnerable Materials in Current Wind Energy Technology.84 Table E-2.Average Material Intensity for Vulnerable M

62、aterials in Potential Future Wind Energy Technology.85 Table E-3.Data Sources Used To Compute Wind Energy Material Quantities in the Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database(REMPD).86 1 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publicatio

63、ns.1 Background Renewable energy deployment is increasing globally.In the United States,generation from utility-scale wind and solar increased by 11%and 20%,respectively,from 2020 to 2021(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2021).This growth is expected to continue and may need to increase to ach

64、ieve domestic objectives for clean energy.1 For example,the United States long-term strategy to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 identifies a need for annual wind energy deployment of 25 to 30 gigawatts(GW)per year,which is approximately three times recent annual average deployment le

65、vels(United States Department of State and the United States Executive Office of the President 2021).Increased deployment of clean energy technologies will affect the demand for raw and processed materials that are required to manufacture and operate these technologies,thus impacting resource use an

66、d physical materials availability.Certain materials that play an important role in the economy and are at risk of supply disruption have been designated as critical(or vulnerable)materials in various regions,including the United States(National Research Council 2008;Achzet and Helbig 2013;Graedel an

67、d Reck 2016;Hofmann et al.2018;Schrijvers et al.2020).2 The availability of these critical materials may be further limited as global resource use increases as a result of population growth and economic development(United Nations Environment Program UNEP 2016).Prior research has identified critical

68、material requirements for a broad set of clean energy technologies and examined how increased deployment of these technologies might influence the demand for certain critical materials(e.g.,critical minerals)(American Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs and Materials Research Society 2011;Atwat

69、er et al.2011;Bauer et al.2010;Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI et al.2013;International Energy Agency IEA 2021;Junne et al.2020;World Bank Group 2017).Several prior studies focused on international or European demand for energy materials(Fraunhofer Institute for Systems

70、and Innovation Research ISI et al.2013;IEA 2021;Junne et al.2020;World Bank Group 2017).Two others provided a broad assessment of availability and risks without detailed quantification of the projected material needs for U.S.energy technologies(American Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs and M

71、aterials Research Society 2011;Atwater et al.2011).And,at least one study,the U.S.Department of Energys(DOEs)Critical Minerals and Materials Strategy(Bauer et al.2010),performed a more detailed analysis of the supply and demand of critical materials in the context of U.S.clean energy technologies an

72、d estimated future demand for four specific components:permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric vehicles,advanced batteries in electric vehicles,thin-film semiconductors in solar photovoltaic power systems,and phosphors in high-efficiency lighting systems.In addition to these cross-technology

73、 assessments of critical material requirements,prior work also analyzed material requirements and supply chain constraints for individual types of clean energy technologies(Ardani et al.2021;Baars et al.2021;Cao et al.2019;Carrara et al.2020;1 Refer to Appendix A for more details about the Biden adm

74、inistrations clean energy goals,including the Hydrogen Shot.2 See Appendix B for a brief history of critical materials research.2 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Dunn et al.2021;Nassar et al.2016;DOE 2022;Wilburn 2011;J.Y

75、ang et al.2020).For example,global and regional estimates of the materials needed to fulfill current and future wind energy deployment have been provided in several studies(Cao et al.2019;Carrara et al.2020;IEA 2021;Nassar et al.2016;Wilburn 2011;J.Yang et al.2020).These studies vary in their estima

76、tes of material types and quantities required per megawatt(MW)of installed capacity;some of this variation stems from differences in material requirements between wind turbines of different sizes or configurations.For example,the generator type determines whether the wind turbine requires rare-earth

77、 permanent magnets,and the level of rare-earth element demand linked to wind energy deployment has been estimated in various studies(Alves Dias et al.2020;Fishman and Graedel 2019;Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI et al.2013;Habib et al.2014;Hoenderdaal et al.2013;Li et al

78、.2020;Ren et al.2021).In addition,comparative studies have quantified material impacts from alternative wind turbine configurations and wind blades(Cooperman et al.2021;Carrara et al.2020;Guezuraga et al.2012;Ozoemena et al.2018;Schreiber et al.2019).At least one study has also evaluated critical ma

79、terial requirements for solar photovoltaic systems in the context of potential high-deployment scenarios in the United States(Ardani et al.2021).However,no studies have yet estimated detailed material requirements of U.S.land-based and offshore wind energy technologies under plausible high-deploymen

80、t scenarios,such as the carbon-pollution-free power sector by 2035 and net-zero economy by 2050 that would be required to achieve the Biden administrations federal sustainability goals(The White House 2021).Because many wind energy materials are sourced and processed globally,U.S.energy security and

81、 economic health are vulnerable to disruptions in the supply of these materials outside our borders.Thus,it is important to develop a more detailed understanding of how U.S.demand for wind energy materials might change under various deployment scenarios.1.1 Motivation and Goals Building on the Energ

82、y Act of 2020s guidance to establish a physical materials property database for wind energy(Consolidated Appropriations Act 2021),this report provides a detailed analysis of wind material requirements at the scales required to achieve the Biden administrations objectives.Here,we explore how material

83、 requirements for wind energy might change under two scenarios,analyze potential U.S.vulnerabilities linked to physical materials availability,and provide some initial recommendations about new technologies that could mitigate resource constraints for wind energy technologies.We use a newly develope

84、d tool for estimating material requirements associated with renewable energy technologiesthe Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database(REMPD)(NREL 2023)to project the amount and types of materials that will be needed for wind energy deployment in the United States from 2020 through 2050.The ana

85、lysis performed here incorporates variability in wind turbine designs and technological improvements and includes a review of the geographical origin of wind turbine materials and availability.These results could help inform better planning to mitigate potential material supply risks for wind energy

86、 deployment.The goals of this report are to:(1)improve understanding of the constraints and vulnerabilities that exist for physical materials availability and manufacturing supply chains under two wind energy deployment scenarios,and(2)identify how new technologies could mitigate resource constraint

87、s.We describe our methodology in Section 2,summarize results for material 3 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.requirements to 2050 in Section 3,provide an overview of opportunities for innovation to alter material requireme

88、nts for future wind power plants in Section 4,and summarize our conclusions in Section 5.We perform our analysis at a high level for all materials used in wind energy technologies and examine a subset of vulnerable materials(defined in Section 1.2)in greater detail.1.2 Definition of Vulnerable Mater

89、ials Within this report,the term“vulnerable materials”encompasses all materials used in wind power plants that are at risk of supply chain disruption,including critical minerals.The Energy Act of 2020 defines a critical mineral as:“Any mineral,element,substance,or material designated as critical und

90、er subsection(c)except fuel minerals;water,ice,or snow;common varieties of sand,gravel,stone,pumice,cinders,and clay.”The Energy Act of 2020(2020)also defines how the Secretary of the Interior,acting through the Director of the United States Geological Survey(USGS),should establish a list of critica

91、l minerals,to be revised at least every 3 years.These minerals should meet the following criteria:They are essential to the economic or national security of the United States Their supply chain is vulnerable to disruption(e.g.,due to military conflict,foreign political risks,or sudden demand growth)

92、They serve an essential function in the manufacturing of a product(e.g.,energy technology,defense,electronics);the absence of which would have significant consequences for the economic or national security of the United States.A more detailed description of the assessment methodology for material cr

93、iticality used by the USGS is provided by Nassar and Fortier(2021).In its most recently published list,the USGS identified 50 critical minerals(USGS 2022).Table 1 lists the vulnerable materials considered here along with the reason for their designation and role in wind energy technologies.The list

94、includes 2 vulnerable materials and 17 critical minerals(the 33 other minerals on the 2022 USGS list play little to no role in wind energy generation facilities3).The two vulnerable materials that are not on the USGS list of critical minerals are carbon fiber and electrical steel.Carbon fiber is use

95、d to provide structural strength for wind turbine blades,and electrical steel is used in power generators in the nacelle and in transformers.The constituents of carbon fiber and electrical steel are largely not critical by themselves(e.g.,electrical steel comprises iron,silicon,carbon,and some alumi

96、num).However,the global capacity for manufacturing these materials is limited.For example,the manufacturing process for electrical steel is metallurgically specialized,and the technical details of the process are highly guarded in the industry.The United States currently relies on Canada and Mexico

97、to 3 The 33 minerals included in the 2022 United States Geological Survey list of critical minerals that play a minor or no role in wind energy technologies are antimony,arsenic,barite,beryllium,bismuth,cerium,cesium,erbium,europium,fluorspar,gadolinium,germanium,hafnium,holmium,indium,iridium,lanth

98、anum,lutetium,magnesium,palladium,platinum,rhodium,rubidium,ruthenium,samarium,scandium,tantalum,tellurium,thulium,tungsten,ytterbium,yttrium,zirconium.4 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.augment its domestic production of

99、electrical steel.As a result,carbon fiber and electrical steel are at high risk for supply chain disruption and are thus included in our list of vulnerable materials.Table 1.Vulnerable Materials and Their Role in Wind Energy Technologies Type of Material(s)Reason for Vulnerable Material Designation

100、Primary Role in Wind Energy Technologies Carbon fiber High risk of supply chain disruption Structural elements in wind turbine blades Electrical steel High risk of supply chain disruption Power generators,transformers Aluminum 2022 USGS critical mineral Power cables,nacelle/tower internal equipment

101、Chromium,cobalt,manganese,nickel,niobium,titanium,vanadium 2022 USGS critical mineral Steel alloying elements Graphite,lithium,nickel 2022 USGS critical mineral Batteries Dysprosium,neodymium,praseodymium,terbium 2022 USGS critical mineral Rare-earth permanent magnets Gallium 2022 USGS critical mine

102、ral Wide bandgap semiconductors for power electronics Tin 2022 USGS critical mineral Bronze Zinc 2022 USGS critical mineral Anticorrosion coatings(galvanization)5 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.2 Methodology To Assess Ma

103、terial Quantities In this report,we use the REMPD(NREL 2023)to assess the types and quantities of materials required to construct wind energy technologies.We also compare material demands for wind energy requirements to available materials and provide some initial insights about how new technologies

104、 could potentially mitigate resource constraints.2.1 Overview of the REMPD The REMPD is a relational database developed using the open-source database server PostgreSQL(PostgreSQL Global Development 2022).A publicly available version of the database can be found at:https:/apps.openei.org/REMPD/.A su

105、mmary of the REMPD including capabilities,definitions,and metrics used in the database are provided in Cooperman et al.(2023).For ease of reference,we provide a high-level overview of the database here and reproduce two figures from Cooperman et al.(2023)(refer to that report for more details).We al

106、so provide more information about the REMPDs scenario analysis capabilities,including the system boundary for scenario analysis.2.1.1 Data Taxonomy The REMPD uses a six-tiered approach to collect and organize data on the material requirements and properties associated with renewable energy technolog

107、ies.The database currently includes data for both wind and solar energy technologies.In this report,we describe the database taxonomy in the context of wind energy technologies as that is the focus of our analysis.However,the database does provide additional data on solar technologies(refer to Coope

108、rman et al.2023 for more details).The top tier of the REMPD data taxonomy comprises all components and materials required to construct all facilities in the selected category(e.g.,all wind power plants in the United States).The next level captures finished components,such as the wind turbine,substat

109、ion,and electrical cables.Each component is associated with relevant subassemblies and subcomponents(e.g.,the pitch drive in a wind turbine is a subcomponent of the hub subassembly).The next tier includes the finished materials,or primary processed materials,such as steel,that are required to manufa

110、cture the component,subassembly,and/or subcomponent.The lowest tier provides the raw materials,which also include some secondary processed materials(e.g.,glass)that are required to manufacture the finished materials.This taxonomy allows the database to capture all material requirements for energy te

111、chnologies and break down the material requirements by component,which allows users to explore where materials are used within each technology and help identify opportunities for reducing material requirements.6 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www

112、.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 1.Taxonomy used to organize data in the REMPD.Asterisks note that not all components in the database have data at the subassembly and subcomponent levels.These two tiers are populated based on available data(i.e.,whether the materials needed for each component can be di

113、saggregated to the subassembly and/or subcomponent levels,or if they are instead reported at a higher level,such as the finished component level).These data could be added to the database in the future.Illustration by Nicole Leon,National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL).In some cases,due to data c

114、onstraints and the desire for the database to focus primarily on material quantities,the REMPD does not have all data at the subassembly or subcomponent levels.However,in all cases,the REMPD does include data for the finished and raw materials associated with each finished component.For example,subs

115、tation data are only broken down by material type and are not subdivided at the subassembly or subcomponent levels;wind turbine data are subdivided into multiple subassemblies and subcomponents.2.1.2 Wind Energy System Components Figure 2 illustrates the wind energy system components that are includ

116、ed in the REMPD and used in the analysis performed here.The five types of components are:1.Wind turbines,which comprise four subassemblies:the hub,blades,nacelle,and tower 2.Foundation(for land-based wind systems)or substructure(for offshore wind systems)3.Array and export cables 4.Site access roads

117、(for land-based systems)5.Substations.We include all material requirements for the wind turbine(i.e.,the nacelle/drivetrain,generator,tower,blades,and hub)and all balance-of-system materials needed to the point of 7 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at

118、 www.nrel.gov/publications.interconnection(i.e.,land-based foundation or offshore substructure,electrical cables,substations,and other site parts e.g.,roads for land-based wind power plants).We exclude material requirements for capital equipment associated with transporting and installing the compon

119、ents as well as materials needed for operating,maintaining,and decommissioning the wind plant(e.g.,we do not include the materials needed to construct cranes or other construction equipment and we do not include the fuel required to transport the materials to and from facilities throughout the wind

120、plant life cycle).Figure 2.System components included in our analysis of wind energy material requirements.Illustration by Joshua Bauer,NREL 2.1.3 System Boundary for Scenario Analysis Materials for wind energy technologies come from diverse,global supply chains.These supply chains will continue to

121、evolve in the future as materials selection and availability change.The system boundary used in the REMPD allows the database to capture two types of materialsraw and finished materialsat two levels:the foreground system and background system(Figure 3).Finished materials include primary processed ma

122、terials(e.g.,steel),which are required to manufacture the component,subassembly,or subcomponent.Raw materials include materials that are required to manufacture the finished materials(e.g.,critical minerals and some secondary processed materials e.g.,glass).The foreground system captures processes a

123、nd materials that are under direct control or decisive influence of renewable energy manufacturers and developers,such as the quantity and type of rare-earth elements used in permanent magnets.Inputs to the foreground system include both raw and processed materials because manufacturers may exert co

124、ntrol over materials selection at both levels.Foreground material quantities come from original equipment manufacturers and published literature.The background system includes the upstream processes that are required to extract and process raw materials and manufacture processed materials used in th

125、e foreground system).The REMPD system boundary 8 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.excludes materials used for processes after manufacturing,such as transportation,installation,operations and maintenance,or decommissioning.

126、Figure 3.System boundary used in the REMPD.Illustration by Annika Eberle,NREL To identify and characterize the material quantities in the background system,we employ tools from life cycle assessment.Life cycle assessment allows researchers to model the inputs(e.g.,materials and fossil-fuel consumpti

127、on)and outputs(air pollutant emissions,discharges to water)of a product or processs life cycle from resource extraction through manufacturing,use,and disposal.In the REMPD,we use life cycle inventories generated for life cycle assessment to estimate the background material for the foreground system.

128、4 As an example,the foreground material steel is used in wind system towers,land-based foundations,and offshore wind substructures.Using existing life cycle inventories,the specific background material requirements for steel are characterized,which include iron,manganese,nickel,titanium,and chromium

129、,among others.This approach positions future work on the REMPD to calculate other types of resource requirements and impacts(e.g.,global warming potential,emissions to water,energy consumption)using the background material data available in the REMPD.2.1.4 Scenario Analysis Capabilities We leverage

130、the REMPDs scenario analysis capabilities(illustrated in Figure 4)to evaluate material quantities and assess and compare material properties(e.g.,availability).Performing scenario analysis using the REMPD involves defining a scenario(a combination of three inputs:a capacity projection,a plant config

131、uration,and a technology configuration)and specifying scaling relationships that allow a user to vary material quantities based on plant configurations and capacity projections.The REMPD then connects that scenario definition to the required renewable energy components,subassemblies,and subcomponent

132、s and identifies the required foreground and background materials associated with them.The REMPD uses this information,along with the scaling relationships,to evaluate material quantities.It also joins the required 4 Refer to Appendix C for a list of sources used for the life cycle inventory data.9

133、This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.materials with their associated material properties.For any given scenario,a researcher can calculate the amount of all materials needed to construct a single wind turbine,wind plant,or all

134、 wind power plants in the United States.Likewise,once a vulnerable material is identified,all scenarios relying on the material can be identified.The relationships defined in the REMPD allow researchers to discover vulnerabilities in the supply chain by connecting materials to countries of origin an

135、d national availability,among other characteristics.Figure 4.Simplified flow of analysis performed using the REMPD.Illustration by Nicole Leon,NREL The technology configuration in a scenario definition is used to identify the required components,subassemblies,and subcomponents.These entities are ass

136、ociated with known foreground material requirements,which are linked to background materials via life cycle inventory data.The capacity projection and plant configuration in the scenario definition is combined with the foreground and background material requirements to compute the total material qua

137、ntities for all facilities.The foreground and background materials are also linked to material properties(such as countries of origin).2.2 Scenario Definitions In this report,we explore how the material requirements for wind energy technologies might change under two future wind deployment scenarios

138、:Current Policies and High Deployment.Using the REMPD,we define our analysis scenarios using a combination of three factors:1.Capacity projection,which defines the annual amount of capacity(in MW)that is anticipated each year over the period of interest.2.Plant configuration,which describes the quan

139、titative properties(e.g.,the wind turbine rating,wind plant capacity,rotor diameter,and hub height)associated with each type of facility(e.g.,offshore versus land-based wind),which can vary over time.10 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov

140、/publications.3.Technology configuration,which identifies the market share for each type of technology that is used within each facility and allows for the exploration of technology innovations(e.g.,superconducting direct-drive generators).Table 2 summarizes how we define each of these three factors

141、 for our two analysis scenarios.5 The Current Policies scenario represents a medium level of wind energy deployment,consistent with median estimates of technology costs and electric-sector policies as of September 2022(including the Inflation Reduction Act IRA),with limited changes in plant configur

142、ations(e.g.,wind turbine size)and no significant technology innovations beyond conventional technology.The High Deployment scenario includes high levels of wind energy deployment that are aligned with the Biden administrations decarbonization goals and incorporates significant changes in wind plant

143、configurations(e.g.,large-scale increases in turbine size),but with limited materials-related innovations applied.5 Refer to Section 3.1.1 through 3.1.3 for more details about each factor.11 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publication

144、s.Table 2.Scenario Definitions for Material Quantities and Availability Analysis Current Policies Scenario High Deployment Scenario Generic description Limited changes to plant configurations and medium levels of deployment,with no significant materials-related technology innovations.Significant tec

145、hnology innovations enable large-scale increases in wind turbine size and high levels of deployment,with limited materials-related technology innovations.Capacity projectiona Mid-Case scenario from National Renewable Energy Laboratorys(NRELs)“Standard Scenarios”(Gagnon et al.2022),which represents a

146、 medium level of wind energy deployment,as required to satisfy electricity demand.The scenario assumes no new decarbonization policies and no deployment of nascent technologies.All Options scenario from Denholm et al.(2022),which achieves 100%clean electricity by 2035 and puts the United States on a

147、 path to net-zero emissions economywide by 2050.Plant configurationc Linear interpolation of wind turbine and plant characteristics from the 2022 Annual Technology Baselined(ATB)Base scenario(year 2020)to the Conservative scenario(year 2030)and linear extrapolation of 20202030 scaling trends through

148、 2050(up to a maximum hub height of 200 meters(m),rotor diameter of 331 m,and turbine rating of 25 MW for offshore wind and a maximum hub height of 140 m for land-based wind).Linear interpolation of wind turbine and plant characteristics from the 2022 ATBd Base scenario(year 2020)to the Advanced sce

149、nario(year 2030)and linear extrapolation of 20202030 scaling trends through 2050(up to a maximum hub height of 200 m,rotor diameter of 331 m,and turbine rating of 25 MW for offshore wind and a maximum hub height of 140 m,rotor diameter of 210 m,and turbine rating of 8 MW for land-based wind).Technol

150、ogy configuratione Low materials-related technology innovation(Low Innovation technology configuration),which represents current technology(e.g.,thermoset blades).Moderate materials-related technology innovation(Moderate Innovation technology configuration),including segmented blades and carbon-fibe

151、r spar caps for land-based systems,advanced steel towers(spiral welding)for 25%of land-based systems,and hybrid tower systems for 25%of land-based systems.a.Refer to Section 3.1.1 and Figure 5 for more details.Note that Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)after this analysis was performe

152、d.As a result,the wind capacity projections used here do not reflect any increased deployment of wind power that may result from the implementation of the IRA.c.Refer to Section 3.1.2,Table 3,and Table 4 for more details.d.The ATB provides a consistent set of cost and performance data for energy ana

153、lysis(refer to National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2022 for details).e.Refer to Section 3.1.3 and Table 5 for more details.To capture changes in material intensity that might occur as wind plants and turbines increase in size,the REMPD multiplies the fractional contribution of materials by type(e.g

154、.,%concrete,%steel,%carbon fiber)by a scaling relationship related to the plant configuration(e.g.,the plant size,number of turbines,rotor diameter).Appendix D provides more details about the scaling relationships used in this analysis.12 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewab

155、le Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Using our two analysis scenarios,we can assess what bottlenecks might arise in wind-energy-related materials under current technology assumptions with limited material evolution.Future work could leverage the REMPD to explore how technology innovatio

156、ns could further reduce material usage through high-performing materials,alternate materials(with large supply chains),and/or alternate design approaches(e.g.,100%bio-derived blade).2.2.1 Capacity Projections To estimate the future demand for wind energy materials,we consider two different deploymen

157、t trajectories.The Current Policies scenario uses the Mid-Case deployment projection with no nascent technologies from National Renewable Energy Laboratorys(NRELs)2022 Standard Scenarios(Gagnon et al.2022).The High Deployment scenario uses the All Options deployment projection that achieves 100%clea

158、n electricity by 2035 and puts the United States on a path to achieve net-zero emissions economywide by 2050(Denholm et al.2022).The deployment projections used here were generated using the Regional Energy Deployment System(ReEDS)capacity expansion model(Ho et al.2021)using the following assumption

159、s6:Electricity demand.The Current Policies scenario assumes moderate growth(close to 1%per year)in electricity demand in response to provisions in the IRA that incentivize electrification of,for example,vehicles and heating.The High Deployment scenario assumes accelerated demand for electrification,

160、with demand growing at a rate of 3.4%per year.Policy.The Current Policies scenario assumes no change to policies affecting the electric sector beyond September 2022.It incorporates estimated cost impacts due to tax credits that were implemented in the IRA.The High Deployment scenario is designed to

161、meet the Biden administrations goal of 100%clean electricity by 2035.By combining carbon capture and the electrification of sectors that currently rely on fossil fuels,this scenario enables net-zero emissions by 2050.Retirements.Deployment projections account for power plant retirements when determi

162、ning the electricity demand in each year.Wind power plants are assumed to have a service life of 30 years.The wind capacity projections under each scenario are shown in Figure 5.These projections include utility-scale land-based and offshore wind power plants.Land-based wind capacity represents the

163、majority of the projected installations:85%of the cumulative capacity in 2050 in the Current Policies scenario,and 91%in the High Deployment scenario.Average annual capacity additions for all utility-scale wind energy between 2022 and 2036 are approximately 21 GW/year in the Current Policies scenari

164、o and 68 GW/year in the High Deployment scenario.These additions represent significant growth for annual United States wind energy deployment,which averaged below 10 GW per year from 2016 to 2020(Wiser et al.2021).In the Current Policies scenario,annual wind energy installations decrease to approxim

165、ately 10 GW per year from 2038 through 2050.In contrast,annual wind energy installations in the High Deployment scenario increase to an average of 84 GW per year from 2038 through 2050.6 Refer to Gagnon et al.(2022)and Denholm et al.(2022)for more details.13 This report is available at no cost from

166、the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 5.Wind-energy-generating capacity projections for the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios 2.2.2 Plant Configuration As described in Section 2.1,the REMPD considers all wind system components that are used in typi

167、cal utility-scale land-based and offshore wind power plants.These system boundaries remain consistent across the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios.The basic wind plant system architecture includes three blades joined to a hub that is connected to the nacelle,which contains the drivetrai

168、n,generator,power electronics,and auxiliary equipment,and is mounted on a tower.7 The hub,blades,nacelle,and tower comprise the wind turbine,which is supported by a foundation(on land)or substructure(offshore).Offshore substructures may be rigidly fixed to the seafloor(e.g.,monopile or lattice struc

169、tures),or floating structures may be held in place by mooring lines and anchors.The balance-of-plant components include electrical cables connecting each wind turbine to one or more substations,and site roads(on land).Wind turbine sizes have grown significantly over the past several decades,and this

170、 growth is expected to continue(Musial et al.2021;Wiser et al.2021).Material requirements for wind energy systems depend on several factors,including the rated capacity of turbines and power plants,the size of individual components(notably the rotor diameter and tower height),and the selection of ma

171、terials or technology type for subcomponents where multiple alternatives have gained market share.The plant configuration in the REMPD allows users to define the size and height of the turbines and other parameters associated with a wind plant configuration.The technology configuration(discussed in

172、the next section)allows users to define other factors that 7 Refer to Figure 2 for a representation of the components included in this analysis.14 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.affect material requirements(e.g.,the type

173、 of generator that is used)and are prescribed within each analysis scenario.In our analysis,wind plants are assumed to have wind turbines with dimensions and characteristics as specified in Table 3 and Table 4(NREL 2022).We develop these plant configurations based on NRELs 2022 Annual Technology Bas

174、eline(ATB)(NREL 2022).To define the configurations over time,we linearly interpolate between the configuration defined by the 2022 ATB Base scenario,which represents current wind energy technology,and two future scenarios:2022 ATB Conservative and 2022 ATB Advanced.The results of these interpolation

175、s are summarized in Table 3 for our Current Policies scenario and Table 4 for our High Deployment scenario.As shown in Table 3 and Table 4,land-based wind technology in 2020 involves a 202-MW wind plant comprising seventy-two 2.8-MW wind turbines.Offshore wind technology in 2020 involves a 1-GW plan

176、t with one hundred and twenty-five 8-MW wind turbines.The 2020 technology configurations are the same across both our analysis scenarios.However,from 2020 to 2050,the plant configurations for the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios differ.From 2020 to 2030,turbine and plant characteristic

177、s are linearly interpolated from the ATB 2022s Base scenario data in 2020 to the ATB 2022s Conservative data in 2030 for our Current Policies scenario(or from the ATBs 2022 Base scenario in 2020 to the ATBs 2022 Advanced scenario data in 2030 for our High Deployment scenario).From 2030 to 2050,we as

178、sume a linear extrapolation of 2020-2030 trends through 2050(up to a maximum hub height of 200 meters(m),rotor diameter of 331 m,and turbine rating of 25 MW and a maximum hub height of 140 m,rotor diameter of 210 m,and turbine rating of 8 MW for land-based wind).Table 3.Plant Configuration for the C

179、urrent Policies Scenario Explored Here(Derived Using NRELs ATB NREL 2022*)Land-Based Wind Offshore Wind 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 Plant capacity 202 MW 200 MW 205 MW 1,000 MW 1,008 MW 1,000 MW Turbine rating 2.8 MW 4 MW 6.4 MW 8 MW 12 MW 20 MW No.of turbines 72 50 32 125 84 50 Hub height 90 m 11

180、0 m 140 m 102 m 136 m 200 m Rotor diameter 125 m 150 m 200 m 159 m 214 m 324 m Specific power 228 watts(W)/square meter(m2)226 W/m2 204 W/m2 403 W/m2 334 W/m2 243 W/m2 Plant lifetime 30 years 30 years 30 years 30 years 30 years 30 years*Values were calculated using a linear interpolation of wind tur

181、bine and plant characteristics from the Base scenario(year 2020)to the Conservative scenario(year 2030)using ATB 2022 data(NREL 2022)and a linear extrapolation of 2020-2030 trends through 2050(up to a maximum hub height of 200 m,rotor diameter of 331 m,and turbine rating of 25 MW for offshore wind a

182、nd a maximum hub height of 140 m for land-based wind).15 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Table 4.Plant Configuration for the High Deployment Scenario Explored Here(Derived Using NRELs ATB NREL 2022*)Land-Based Wind Offsho

183、re Wind 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 Plant capacity 202 MW 203 MW 200 MW 1,000 MW 1,008 MW 1,000 MW Turbine rating 2.8 MW 7 MW 8 MW 8 MW 18 MW 25 MW No.of turbines 72 29 25 125 56 40 Hub height 90 m 135 m 140 m 102 m 161 m 200 m Rotor diameter 125 m 200 m 210 m 159 m 263 m 331 m Specific power 228

184、W/m2 223 W/m2 230 W/m2 403 W/m2 331 W/m2 291 W/m2 Plant lifetime 30 years 30 years 30 years 30 years 30 years 30 years*Values were calculated using a linear interpolation of wind turbine and plant characteristics from the Base scenario(2020)to the Advanced scenario(2030)using ATB 2022 data(NREL 2022

185、)and a linear extrapolation of 2020-2030 trends through 2050(up to a maximum hub height of 200 m,rotor diameter of 331 m,and turbine rating of 25 MW for offshore wind and a maximum hub height of 140 m,rotor diameter of 210 m,and turbine rating of 8 MW for land-based wind).2.2.3 Technology Configurat

186、ion We use the technology configuration in the REMPD to incorporate technology changes over time.These technology configurations are developed by assigning market shares for alternative materials and subcomponent technologies based on available data,projections,and expert opinion.There are a variety

187、 of technology innovations that could modify the material requirements for wind energy technologies.8 In this analysis,we use two technology configurations:1)Low Innovation,which is based on current technology,and 2)Moderate Innovation,which includes three materials-related technology innovations.Bo

188、th configurations are summarized in Table 5.9 8 Refer to Table 10 for a list of potential innovations that might impact each wind energy component.9 Refer to Section 2.2.3.1 and 2.2.3.2,respectively,for more details about each configuration.16 This report is available at no cost from the National Re

189、newable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Table 5.Technology Configurations for Material Quantities and Availability Analysis Low Innovation(Used in Our Current Policies Scenario)Moderate Innovation(Used in Our High Deployment Scenario)Land-Based Wind Foundation Concrete spread foot Con

190、crete spread foot Tower Transportable tubular steel can 50%transportable tubular steel can 25%spiral-welded steel 25%hybrid steel and concrete Generator 100%high-speed geared 100%high-speed geared Blades Fiberglass/thermoset shell Fiberglass/thermoset spar cap 50%balsa core 50%foam core Segmented bl

191、ade tip Fiberglass/thermoset shell Carbon fiber/thermoset spar cap 50%balsa core 50%foam core Offshore Wind Substructure Steel monopile 80%steel monopile 15%steel jacket 2%concrete gravity base 3%steel semisubmersible Tower Tubular steel can Tubular steel can Generator 100%permanent-magnet synchrono

192、us generator 100%permanent-magnet synchronous generator Blades Fiberglass/thermoset shell Carbon fiber/thermoset spar cap 50%balsa core 50%foam core Fiberglass/thermoset shell Carbon fiber/thermoset spar cap 50%balsa core 50%foam core 2.2.3.1 Low Innovation As shown in Table 5,under the Low Innovati

193、on technology configuration,we assume that land-based and offshore wind plants rely on current technology with no materials-related technology innovations over time.For example,land-based wind towers and foundations use conventional designs:a spread-foot foundation made from concrete and steel rebar

194、,and a transportable tubular steel tower.The blade material quantities assume that fiberglass is used throughout the blade,with a conventional thermoset resin.The blade core material is assumed to be 50%balsa wood and 50%foam.When assessing material properties,we assume polyvinyl chloride(PVC)foam i

195、s used in the core,although other polymers such as polyethylene terephthalate may be substituted.Materials used in the nacelle vary depending on the type of generator.Worldwide,nearly 30%of wind turbines use permanent-magnet synchronous generators,whereas 70%use high-speed geared generators,and arou

196、nd 2%use electrically excited synchronous generators(European Commission et al.2020b).In the United States,the share of permanent-magnet synchronous generators is lower at approximately 2%,with most wind turbines using high-speed geared generators.In the Low Innovation technology configuration,we as

197、sume 100%of land-based systems use high-speed geared generators.For offshore wind technology,the Low Innovation technology configuration assumes fixed-bottom steel monopile foundations with tubular steel towers.Given the limited number of offshore wind turbines currently in U.S.waters,the generator

198、type is drawn from data provided by original equipment manufacturers,which assume offshore turbines will be constructed largely using permanent-magnet synchronous generators.Fiberglass is used for the blade shell,with 17 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laborato

199、ry at www.nrel.gov/publications.carbon fiber used for the spar caps.Like land-based wind turbines,50%of blades are assumed to use balsa wood while the remainder use PVC foam cores.2.2.3.2 Moderate Innovation The Moderate Innovation technology configuration includes spiral-welded towers,hybrid towers

200、,and segmented blades with carbon-fiber spar caps.Spiral-welded towers enable on-site manufacturing of larger(taller)towers that would be difficult to transport using traditional tubular steel can towers.Hybrid towers are constructed using a hybrid of concrete and steel to help enable taller towers

201、for land-based systems.In the Moderate Innovation technology configuration,we assume 25%of land-based systems will use hybrid towers.We also assume that 25%of land-based towers will be spiral welded.The remaining 50%of land-based towers and all offshore towers are assumed to be assembled from conven

202、tional transportable tubular steel“can”segments.In the Moderate Innovation technology configuration,we assume 100%of future land-based systems will use segmented blades.Segmented blades incorporate carbon spar caps and segmentation to enable the transport of longer blades for land-based systems(refe

203、r to Appendix D.7 for more details).No other technology innovations(e.g.,changes in generator types or other technology changes)are included in the Moderate Innovation technology configuration.18 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/public

204、ations.3 Projected Material Needs for U.S.Wind Energy Systems There are more than 200 unique foreground system materials and more than 1,700 unique background system material flows in the proprietary version of the REMPD.10 To improve the interpretability of this analysis,we group these materials in

205、to seven major categories:1.Concrete 2.Road aggregate(crushed rock,stones,and gravel)3.Steel(including electrical steel)4.Composites and polymers(including carbon fiber in carbon-fiber-reinforced polymers)5.Cast iron 6.Other metals and alloys(including 16 critical minerals)7.Other materials(includin

206、g graphite).We use these categories to discuss the results of our analysis and perform a more detailed analysis on 19 vulnerable materials(defined in Table 1).The vulnerable materials that we explore fall into different material categories(e.g.,electrical steel is included with other types of steel

207、in the“Steel”category and most critical minerals are included in the“Other metals and alloys”category).In this section,we summarize material intensities of current and potential future wind energy technologies,discuss the projected material needs for U.S.wind energy systems over time,compare project

208、ed needs for all materials to the amount of material that is currently produced,and compare vulnerable material needs to projected availability.3.1 Material Intensities of Current and Potential Future Wind Energy Technologies Figure 6 illustrates the total material intensities of current and potenti

209、al future11 wind energy technologies and how the material requirements break down by material category.For example,current land-based wind power plants require about 1,200 metric tonnes(t)of material per megawatt,comprised(by mass)of approximately 53%road aggregate,34%concrete,9%steel,2%composites a

210、nd polymers,1%cast iron,1%other metals and alloys,and less than 1%other materials.Future land-based wind plants may contain a larger proportion of concrete due to bigger foundations required for larger and taller turbines and more concrete in hybrid towers.These changes could shift the material brea

211、kdown of the future land-based wind plants by mass to 46%concrete,39%road aggregate,10%steel,3%composites and polymers,1%cast iron,1%other metals and alloys,and the remainder other materials.Offshore wind plants currently require about 300 t of material per megawatt,comprised(by mass)of 87%steel,5%o

212、ther metals and alloys,4%composites and polymers,3%cast iron,and 1%other materials.Shifts in material 10 Refer to Section 2.1.3 and Figure 3 for a definition of the foreground and background systems.11 Potential future technology is represented using results from the High Deployment scenario in the

213、year 2050(see Table 2 for more details about the High Deployment scenario definition).19 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.requirements for land-based wind in the High Deployment scenario are due to the technology configura

214、tion changes and moderate materials-related technology that are assumed in this scenario;the High Deployment scenario does not predict major changes to the material requirements for future offshore wind plants.Concrete is used in the High Deployment scenario for some offshore wind substructures;it r

215、epresents a large fraction of the material use in those facilities but only 3%of the average material intensity because concrete gravity-base substructures make up only 2%of predicted installations.Figure 6.Material intensities of current and potential future wind energy technologies Table 6 and Tab

216、le 7,respectively,provide more details about the average material intensities of current and future wind energy technologies shown in Figure 6.The tables break down the material intensities by facility,component,subassembly,and material type.For example,a current land-based wind turbine tower requir

217、es approximately 66 t of steel,2.7 t of other metals and alloys,0.1 t of composites and polymers,and 0.2 t of other materials per megawatt of installed capacity(Table 6).Current offshore towers require about 31 t of steel,1.4 t of other metals and alloys,0.1 t of composites and polymers,and 0.2 t of

218、 other materials per megawatt of installed capacity.The material intensity of future offshore towers in the High Deployment scenario increases slightly but the relative contribution of each material remains similar(Table 7).However,future land-based towers could require 15 t of concrete in addition

219、to 52 t of steel,20 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.2.2 t of other metals and alloys,0.1 t of composites and polymers,and 0.2 t of other materials per megawatt of installed capacity due to the adoption of hybrid steel-con

220、crete towers.Array and export cables for land-based systems mostly comprise composites and polymers,along with other metals and alloys(mostly aluminum).Offshore array and export cables also contain lead and galvanized steel.Foundations in land-based wind plants comprise mostly concrete with a small

221、amount of steel reinforcement,and substructures in offshore systems are built almost entirely from steel.Roads are only used in land-based systems and are comprised of aggregate.Offshore substations use steel as the primary structural material;electrical equipment within the substation uses more ste

222、el(including electrical steel),along with other metals and alloys(e.g.,copper)and a small fraction of composites and polymers and other materials.Land-based substations use these materials along with concrete and cast iron.21 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Lab

223、oratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Table 6.Average Material Intensity of Current Wind Energy Technologies(2020)Average Material Intensity(metric tonnes t/megawatt MW)of Current Wind Energy Technologies by Material Category Component Subassembly Steel Cast iron Other metals and alloys Composites an

224、d polymers Concrete Road aggregate Other materials Land-Based Wind Array and export cables Total*3.6 4.4 Foundation Total*20.8 1.0 0.01 398.1 0.01 Roads Total*613.0 Substation Total*1.0 0.01 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 Turbine Blades 0.3 0.01 15.8 1.1 Hub 4.8 2.5 0.2 0.1 0.01 Nacelle 17.0 6.3 3.8 1.0 0.3 Tower

225、66.0 2.7 0.1 0.2 Offshore Wind Array and export cables Array cable 0.6 2.6 0.7 0.2 Export cable 0.01 0.5 0.5 0.1 Onshore cable 0.01 0.01 Substructure Monopile 144.5 4.9 Transition piece 51.5 1.8 Substation Substation equipment 0.3 0.1 0.01 0.2 Support structure 7.0 0.2 Turbine Blades 0.3 0.01 10.4 0

226、.9 Hub 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.01 0.01 Nacelle 11.5 7.8 2.6 0.7 0.4 Tower 30.9 1.4 0.1 0.2*Only total component data are available for these components;these data are not broken down by subassembly.22 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publication

227、s.Table 7.Average Material Intensity of Potential Future Wind Energy Technologies(As Defined Based on Technology Projections and Expert Input Used in the High Deployment Scenario,2050)Material Intensity(t/MW)of Potential Future Wind Energy Technologies by Material Category Component Subassembly Stee

228、l Cast iron Other metals and alloys Composites and polymers Concrete Road aggregate Other materials Land-Based Wind Array and export cables Total*3.6 4.4 Foundation Total*22.8 1.1 0.01 434.4 0.01 Roads Total*383.9 Substation Total*1.0 0.01 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 Turbine Blades 0.8 0.1 22.9 1.7 Hub 4.8 2.5

229、0.2 0.1 0.01 Nacelle 16.7 6.2 3.8 1.0 0.3 Tower 52.8 2.2 0.1 15.2 0.2 Offshore Wind Array and export cables Array cable 0.6 2.6 0.7 0.2 Export cable 0.01 0.5 0.5 0.1 Onshore cable 0.01 0.01 Substructure Pile/jacket/floater 218.1 7.4 Gravity base 0.01 11.5 2.3 0.01 Substation Substation equipment 0.3

230、 0.1 0.2 Support structure 7.0 0.2 Turbine Blades 0.5 0.01 19.2 1.7 Hub 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.01 0.01 Nacelle 11.4 7.7 2.6 0.7 0.4 Tower 50.9 2.4 0.2 0.4*Only total component data are available for these components;these data are not broken down by subassembly and instead provide a total value equal to the

231、material requirements for all subassemblies associated with the component.3.1.1 Variation in Material Intensities for Vulnerable Materials Figure 7 shows how the material intensities for vulnerable materials could differ between current and potential future wind energy technologies(see Tables E-1 an

232、d E-2 for the underlying data used to develop this figure).23 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 7.Average material intensities for vulnerable materials as determined using the Current Policies and High Deployment sce

233、narios 24 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.For current and potential future technology in both land-based and offshore wind systems,the vulnerable materials with the highest average material intensities are aluminum,carbon

234、 fiber,chromium,electrical steel,manganese,and nickel.Aluminum is mostly used in the cables,tower,and nacelle.Carbon fiber is used solely in the wind turbine blades.Chromium is primarily used in the nacelle and foundation in land-based wind plants and in the nacelle and hub in offshore wind plants.E

235、lectrical steel is used mostly in the nacelle and substation.Manganese and nickel are primarily used in the tower and foundation(land-based)or substructure(offshore).As shown in Figure 7,the average material intensities for vulnerable materials used in land-based wind plants do not change much for c

236、urrent versus potential future technology,except for carbon fiber.The material intensity for carbon fiber is higher for potential future technology because blade lengths are expected to increase more quickly than rated power,and the High Deployment scenario assumes the use of segmented blades,which

237、are expected to require more carbon fiber.For offshore wind,longer blades and lower specific power also contribute to an increase in the average material intensity for carbon fiber.Material intensities of chromium,manganese,and nickel all increase for offshore wind because these vulnerable materials

238、 are used in steel manufacturing and more steel is required per megawatt to build larger turbines with taller towers and substructures in the High Deployment scenario.3.2 Projected U.S.Wind Energy Demand for Materials Figure 8 illustrates the projected U.S.wind energy demand for our seven categories

239、 of wind energy materials as estimated using the assumptions outlined in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios(see Table 2 for more details about how we defined these scenarios).Figure 9 shows the projected U.S.wind energy demand for a subset of these materials,specifically vulnerable m

240、aterials.In both Figure 8 and Figure 9,average annual material requirements generally follow capacity projection trends(see Figure 5).Material requirements are primarily driven by land-based wind capacity additions,which are more than seven times higher than offshore wind.Land-based wind plants are

241、also more material-intensive than offshore facilities because they require large quantities of concrete to construct foundations and aggregate for roads.12 As a result,the total material requirements for land-based wind energy technologies are 25 to 35 times greater than for offshore wind.12 See Sec

242、tion 3.1,including Figure 6,Table 6,and Table 7 for more details on the differences in material intensities between land-based and offshore wind energy technologies.25 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 8.Average quan

243、tity per year of all materials required for land-based and offshore wind technologies as determined using the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios Figure 9.Average quantity per year of vulnerable materials required for land-based and offshore wind technologies as determined using the Curre

244、nt Policies and High Deployment scenarios 26 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.3.2.1 Projected Changes in Material Intensity Over Time The trends in material quantities shown in Figure 8 are further explained by examining t

245、he change in material intensity of each technology over time(Figure 10).As shown in Figure 10,land-based wind plants require a total of 1,000-1,200 t of material per megawatt compared to 300-350 t of material per megawatt for offshore wind.13 Land-based wind energy projects show the most change in m

246、aterial intensity over time.This variation is primarily driven by road aggregate requirements,which decrease over time because fewer miles of roads are needed per unit of capacity to access larger wind turbines.In addition,the amount of concrete required per megawatt for land-based foundations gener

247、ally increases as the rotor size and hub height increase.There is also a slight increase in the material intensity of offshore wind over time in both scenarios due to greater material requirements for taller towers.Figure 10.Annual material intensity for land-based and offshore wind in the Current P

248、olicies and High Deployment scenarios 3.3 Projected U.S.Wind Energy Demand for Materials Compared to Current Production To put the projected material needs for U.S.wind energy technologies into context,we compared the U.S.wind energy demand for nonvulnerable materials in each analysis scenario to gl

249、obal and U.S.production of each material in 2020(Figure 11).13 See Figure 6,Table 6,and Table 7 for more details about the differences in material requirements and the breakdown of material quantities by material type,facility,component,and subassembly.27 This report is available at no cost from the

250、 National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 11.Projected annual U.S.wind energy demand for nonvulnerable materials,as estimated in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentage of 2020 production Results are presented for global(top row)and United S

251、tates(bottom row)production.28 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Future availability of these materials depends on many factors,including the mineral resources,cost of extraction,and global level of demand from various indu

252、stries.Current production levels provide an initial data point from which to estimate production in future years.In both scenarios,the quantity of nonvulnerable materials needed to satisfy U.S.wind energy demand comprise less than 4%of the 2020 global production(top row of Figure 11).The quantities

253、of cast iron,other nonvulnerable metals and alloys,and road aggregate needed to satisfy U.S.wind energy demand through 2050 also comprise less than 5%of the total annual U.S.production of these materials in both scenarios(assuming future average U.S.production levels remain the same as in 2020;botto

254、m row of Figure 11).However,the projected annual U.S.wind energy demand for composites and polymers,steel,and concrete could exceed 5%of 2020 U.S.production of these materials(bottom row of Figure 11).Under the Current Policies scenario,demand for steel and concrete remains below 5%of current U.S.pr

255、oduction,whereas demand for composites and polymers from 2022 through 2036 represents approximately 12%of the total amount of these materials produced in the United States in 2020.In the High Deployment scenario,demand for composites and polymers,steel,and other metals and alloys is even higher.From

256、 2038 to 2044,U.S.wind energy demand for composites and polymers,steel,and concrete could consume 67%,13%,and 6%of the amount of U.S.production of these materials in 2020,respectively.Thus,it is important to consider how to mitigate potential supply risks for these nonvulnerable materialsespecially

257、composites and polymersto enable high levels of wind energy deployment.Demand for specific materials(e.g.,vulnerable materials such as carbon fiber,nickel,and dysprosium)may comprise an even higher portion of U.S.production.For vulnerable materials,we performed a more detailed analysis and examined

258、how the material needs for wind energy technologies in each scenario compare to U.S.production,global production,U.S.reserves,and global reserves(Table 8,Figure 12,Figure 13,and Figure 14).Table 8 provides the production and reserve values for each vulnerable material and additional information abou

259、t the significant uses of these vulnerable materials along with a breakdown of material quantities by country of origin.Figures 12-14 illustrate how the material requirements compare to production and reserves.The distribution of countries supplying raw materials to the United States varies in many

260、instances from global production levels,reflecting trade ties between individual companies or nations.Comparisons against global production provide a high-level overview of how the magnitudes of total global production compare to material needs for wind energy technologies.29 This report is availabl

261、e at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Table 8.Uses,Sources,Production,Reserves,and Projected Wind Material Needs for Vulnerable Materials Material Other Significant Usesa Country of Origin Total Global Production(millions of kilograms kg in 2020)Tota

262、l Global Reserves(millions of kg)Ranges of Projected Material Needs for U.S.Wind Energy Technologies(millions of kg)Global Production U.S.Import Sources(20162019)Current Technology (Current Policies Scenario,2020)Potential Future Technology(High Deployment Scenario,2050)Carbon fiber Transportation(a

263、erospace,automotive,marine),consumer goods(pressure vessels,sports equipment)United States(28%)Japan(13%)China(13%)Turkey(12%)Hungary(5%)Taiwan(5%)Others(24%)Data not available 192 N/A 728 240260 Electrical steel Machinery and appliances(transformers,motors,inductors)South Korea(14%)China(14%)Japan(

264、12%)Germany(11%)Russia(10%)Others(39%)Japan(21%)Korea(21%)France(13%)Austria(11%)China(6%)Others(28%)20,000 N/A 1863 190570 Critical Minerals Aluminum Transportation(aviation and automotive),consumer goods,packaging,construction,electrical,machinery and appliances China(57%)Russia(6%)India(5%)Canada

265、(5%)Others(27%)Canada(50%)United Arab Emirates(10%)Russia(9%)China(5%)Others(26%)65,200 32,000,000 3449 300420 Chromium Steel(stainless and heat-resisting steel),other steel alloys South Africa(36%)Turkey(22%)Kazakhstan(19%)India(7%)Finland(6%)Others(10%)South Africa(39%)Kazakhstan(8%)Mexico(6%)Russ

266、ia(6%)Others(41%)37,000 570,000 1447 110390 Cobalt Alloys(superalloys,other alloys),chemicals,steel Congo(73%)Russia(5%)Others(22%)Norway(20%)Canada(14%)Japan(13%)Finland(10%)Others(43%)165 7,600 0.030.07 0.30.6 30 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at

267、www.nrel.gov/publications.Material Other Significant Usesa Country of Origin Total Global Production(millions of kilograms kg in 2020)Total Global Reserves(millions of kg)Ranges of Projected Material Needs for U.S.Wind Energy Technologies(millions of kg)Global Production U.S.Import Sources(20162019)

268、Current Technology (Current Policies Scenario,2020)Potential Future Technology(High Deployment Scenario,2050)Dysprosiumb Magnets,ceramics and glass,battery alloys,catalysts China(58%)United States(16%)Burma(13%)Australia(9%)Others(4%)China(80%)Estonia(5%)Japan(4%)Malaysia(4%)Others(7%)2.4 44 0.020.0

269、9 0.30.8 Gallium Electronics(integrated circuits,optoelectronic devices)China(97%)Others(3%)China(55%)United Kingdom(11%)Germany(10%)Others(24%)0.33 100 0.00060.002 0.0050.01 Graphite(natural)Metal products(bearings,brake lining,lubricants),rubber China(79%)Brazil(7%)Others(14%)China(33%)Mexico(23%)

270、Canada(17%)India(9%)Others(18%)970 320,000 0.040.2 0.31.1 Lithium Batteries,ceramics and glass,lubricating greases Australia(48%)Chile(26%)China(16%)Argentina(7%)Others(3%)Argentina(55%)Chile(36%)China(5%)Others(4%)83 22,000 0.0080.04 0.060.22 Manganese Steel South Africa(34%)Australia(18%)Gabon(18%

271、)China(7%)Others(23%)Gabon(20%)South Africa(19%)Australia(15%)Georgia(10%)Others(36%)19,000 1,500,000 2235 220410 Neodymiumb Magnets,ceramics and glass,battery alloys,catalysts China(58%)United States(16%)Burma(13%)Australia(9%)Others(4%)China(80%)Estonia(5%)Japan(4%)Malaysia(4%)Others(7%)40.8 1,200

272、 0.51.9 618 31 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Material Other Significant Usesa Country of Origin Total Global Production(millions of kilograms kg in 2020)Total Global Reserves(millions of kg)Ranges of Projected Material

273、Needs for U.S.Wind Energy Technologies(millions of kg)Global Production U.S.Import Sources(20162019)Current Technology (Current Policies Scenario,2020)Potential Future Technology(High Deployment Scenario,2050)Nickel Steel(stainless and heat-resisting steel),superalloys,batteries Indonesia(31%)Philip

274、pines(13%)Russia(11%)New Caledonia(8%)Australia(7%)Canada(7%)China(5%)Others(18%)Canada(42%)Norway(10%)Finland(9%)Russia(8%)Other(31%)2,500 95,000 2656 240550 Niobium Steel,superalloys Brazil(90%)Canada(10%)Brazil(66%)Canada(22%)Others(12%)65 18,000 0.0040.005 0.030.06 Praseodymiumb Magnets,ceramics

275、 and glass,battery alloys,catalysts China(58%)United States(16%)Burma(13%)Australia(9%)Others(4%)China(80%)Estonia(5%)Japan(4%)Malaysia(4%)Others(7%)14.4 370 0.0060.01 0.81.5 Terbiumb Magnets,ceramics and glass,battery alloys,catalysts China(58%)United States(16%)Burma(13%)Australia(9%)Others(4%)Chi

276、na(80%)Estonia(5%)Japan(4%)Malaysia(4%)Others(7%)0.5 10 0.0001 0.0060.012 Tin Alloys,coatings(tinplate),chemicals,metal products(solder)China(32%)Indonesia(20%)Burma(11%)Peru(8%)Congo(7%)Bolivia(6%)Brazil(6%)Others(10%)Indonesia(24%)Malaysia(21%)Peru(20%)Bolivia(17%)Other(18%)Scrap:Canada(99%)260 4,

277、900 0.0020.004 0.020.05 32 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Material Other Significant Usesa Country of Origin Total Global Production(millions of kilograms kg in 2020)Total Global Reserves(millions of kg)Ranges of Project

278、ed Material Needs for U.S.Wind Energy Technologies(millions of kg)Global Production U.S.Import Sources(20162019)Current Technology (Current Policies Scenario,2020)Potential Future Technology(High Deployment Scenario,2050)Titanium Steel,superalloys China(53%)Japan(21%)Russia(13%)Kazakhstan(7%)Others(

279、6%)Japan(90%)Kazakhstan(7%)Others(3%)230 750,000 0.60.9 610 Vanadium Steel,other alloys,catalysts China(67%)Russia(19%)South Africa(8%)Brazil(6%)Canada(26%)China(14%)Brazil(10%)South Africa(9%)Others(41%)105 24,000 0.0001 0.0001 Zinc Coatings(galvanization),rubber,chemicals,paint,agriculture China(3

280、4%)Australia(11%)Mexico(5%)Peru(11%)United States(6%)India(6%)Others(27%)Peru(98%)Others(2%)12,000 250,000 0.41.3 311 a.Other significant uses than wind energy technologies.Data are primarily drawn from the USGS Metals and minerals:U.S.Geological Survey Minerals Yearbooks(most recent available,2018-

281、2022)and are supplemented with data from the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association(https:/www.nrmca.org/),the UN Comtrade Database(https:/comtrade.un.org/data/),BloombergNEF(2020),and Carrara et al.(2020).b.The source and other significant uses information reported for dysprosium,neodymium,prase

282、odymium,and terbium correspond to data for all rare-earth compounds and metals(they are not specific to each of the individual elements)because these data are not available at the level of individual elements.33 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www

283、.nrel.gov/publications.As shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13,the projected annual U.S.wind energy demand for vulnerable materials is anticipated to require less than 10%of global 2020 production for all materials in the Current Policies scenario.However,in the High Deployment scenario,U.S.wind energy

284、demand for carbon fiber could reach 101%of 2020 global production(Figure 12)and demand for neodymium could reach 12%of 2020 global production from 2038 to 2044(Figure 13);U.S.wind energy demand for all other materials is below 10%of global production in the High Deployment scenario.From a domestic p

285、erspective,U.S.wind energy demand for nickel,electrical steel,and carbon fiber could require up to 317%,18%,and 25%of 2020 levels of U.S.production of these materials between 2022 and 2028 in the Current Policies scenario.In the High Deployment scenario,demand for wind energy materials is highest af

286、ter 2030.From 2030 to 2045,U.S.wind energy demand for nickel,electrical steel,and carbon fiber could approach,respectively,1,200%,75%,and 400%of 2020 levels of U.S.production in the High Deployment scenario.Figure 12.Projected U.S.wind energy demand for carbon fiber,electrical steel,and nickel,as es

287、timated in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentage of 2020 production.Results are presented for global(top row)and United States(bottom row)production.Figure 13 illustrates the projected annual U.S.wind energy demand as a percentage of production in 2020 for a subset of vu

288、lnerable materials excluding carbon fiber,electrical steel,and nickel.Demand for these materials is compared with global production in the top portion of 34 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 13 and U.S.production in

289、the bottom portion of the figure.14 Here,we can see that U.S.wind energy demand for this subset of vulnerable materials comprises less than 12%of 2020 global production in both the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios.However,in the High Deployment scenario,demand for neodymium and dyspros

290、ium reaches 69%and 55%,respectively,of 2020 U.S.production from 2038 to 2044;demand for praseodymium,cobalt,and aluminum also rises to 20%-35%of 2020 domestic production levels.Overall,these results indicate that current domestic production levels of carbon fiber and nickel may be lower than the amo

291、unt required to achieve high levels of wind energy deployment in the United States consistent with a net-zero economy.Additionally,U.S.wind energy demand for rare-earth elements(i.e.,dysprosium and neodymium)and electrical steel may comprise a large portion of domestic production(if production does

292、not increase beyond 2020 levels).And,globally,production of carbon fiber would need to increase to meet demand for wind energy.Demand from other sectors of the economy may further limit availability of certain materials.For instance,demand from electric vehicles could further constrain carbon fiber,

293、neodymium,and praseodymium supplies.A strategy to avoid supply issues could be to diversify imports:when considering global production,U.S.wind energy demand for vulnerable materials never exceeds 10%of global production(in either scenario)except for neodymium and carbon fiber in the High Deployment

294、 scenario.14 Demand for chromium,gallium,graphite,lithium,manganese,niobium,tin,and titanium are not compared with domestic production because lithium and titanium production data were withheld from publication and the other materials are not mined domestically(USGS 2021).35 This report is available

295、 at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 13.Projected U.S.wind energy demand for a subset of vulnerable materials(excluding nickel,carbon fiber,and electrical steel),as estimated in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentag

296、e of 2020 production.Results are presented for global(top row)and United States(bottom row)production.In 2020,gallium,graphite,manganese,and niobium were not produced in the United States;the United States had no primary production of tin or chromium;and the amount of lithium and titanium production

297、 were withheld to protect confidential company data(USGS 2021).36 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.3.4 Material Needs for Wind Energy Technologies Compared to Projected Availability Projected availability of materials depe

298、nds on many factors,including mineral resources,cost of extraction,and global level of demand from various industries.Current estimates of reserves provide an initial data point from which to estimate projected availability of materials in future years.Reserves are not estimated for electrical steel

299、 and carbon fiber,because the concept of reserves does not apply to these highly processed materials in the same way as for critical minerals.Figure 14 shows how annual U.S.wind energy demand for critical minerals compares to U.S.and global reserves for each material in the Current Policies and High

300、 Deployment scenarios.None of the critical mineral needs for U.S.wind energy technologies are expected to exceed 0.5%of global reserves.Most critical mineral requirements are below 2%of U.S.reserves in both the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios;the three exceptions are nickel,dysprosium

301、,and chromium.In the High Deployment scenario,annual U.S.wind energy demand for nickel,chromium,and dysprosium could reach 63%,16%,and 11%of U.S.reserves for each material,respectively,from 2038 to 2044.Overall,Figure 12,13,and 14 show that global production and reserves are sufficient to meet the U

302、.S.wind energy demand for all vulnerable materials except carbon fiber.The projected demand for carbon fiber,particularly in the High Deployment scenario,will require large increases in both domestic and global supply.In addition,domestic production or imports of nickel will have to increase signifi

303、cantly to meet the material requirements in the High Deployment scenario particularly after 2030.Depending on competing uses,production of electrical steel,cobalt,and rare-earth elements(dysprosium and praseodymium)may also need to increase.37 This report is available at no cost from the National Re

304、newable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Figure 14.Projected U.S.wind energy demand for critical minerals,as estimated in the Current Policies and High Deployment scenarios as a percentage of reserves.Results are presented for global(top row)and United States(bottom row)reserves(the Un

305、ited States does not have known,economically recoverable reserves of gallium,graphite,manganese,or tin(USGS 2021).38 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.3.5 High-Level Overview of Material Supply Challenges for U.S.Wind Energ

306、y To assess potential material supply challenges for U.S.wind energy,we examined the potential future U.S.wind energy demand for each material in 2050 as a percentage of U.S.and global production in 2020(illustrations of these results are shown for vulnerable materials in Figure 12 and Figure 13).In

307、 this section,we further discuss challenges for both vulnerable and nonvulnerable materials that could exceed 20%of U.S.or global production in 2050.Our results indicate that there are six types of vulnerable materials that exceed this threshold:carbon fiber,electrical steel,aluminum,cobalt,rare-ear

308、th elements(i.e.,dysprosium,neodymium,and praseodymium),and nickel(Figure 15).(It is important to note that we do not compare demand for chromium,gallium,graphite,lithium,manganese,niobium,tin,and titanium with domestic production because lithium and titanium production data were withheld from publi

309、cation and the other materials are not mined domestically(USGS 2021);however,in both of our analysis scenarios,U.S.wind energy demand for all of these materials is below 2%of 2020 global production.)There are also three types of nonvulnerable materials that could pose supply challenges:balsa,copper,

310、and glass fiber.We provide a high-level overview of the challenges in this section and discuss potential opportunities for reducing material requirements more generally in the next section.39 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publicatio

311、ns.Figure 15.Annual U.S.wind energy demand over time for selected materials as compared to global and U.S.production in 2020 40 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.3.5.1 Vulnerable Materials 3.5.1.1 Nickel As shown in Table 8

312、,nickel is primarily used in the production of stainless and heat-resisting steels.It is also used to produce other steel alloys,superalloys,other nickel alloys,electroplating,chemicals,batteries,catalysts,ceramics,and coinage.Within a wind plant,nickel is mostly used as an alloy for chromium steel

313、and low-alloyed steel and is therefore accounted for within the background system of the REMPD.15 The wind energy components that use the most of these types of steel(and therefore the most nickel)are the wind turbine tower,the land-based foundation or offshore substructure,and the wind turbine nace

314、lle.In 2020,Indonesia produced the most nickel(accounting for 30%of global nickel mine production)and U.S.mine production accounted for less than 1%of global nickel production.If future U.S.production levels remain the same as 2020 levels,the two scenarios analyzed here indicate that future U.S.depl

315、oyment of wind energy technologies could require 97%1,600%of current U.S.production of nickel and 5%63%of U.S.reserves of nickel(see Table 9,Figure 12,and Figure 14).Although the estimated world reserves of nickel are more than sufficient to satisfy U.S.wind energy demand for nickel,current U.S.prod

316、uction will not be sufficient to satisfy the nickel needed for U.S.wind energy deployment.In addition,in the first 3 months of 2022,nickel prices increased by more than 60%,a surge that indicates the possibility of future market volatility and supply disruption.As a result,to enable increased U.S.wi

317、nd energy deployment,it will be important for the U.S.to secure supply of nickel,which could include expanding domestic production and recycling of nickel,identifying alternatives its use in steel manufacturing,identifying alternatives to steel in wind turbine applications(e.g.,through the increased

318、 use of concrete in hybrid towers),and diversifying imports.15 Refer to Section 2.1.3 for more details about the foreground and background system definitions in the REMPD.41 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Table 9.Challen

319、ges and Opportunities for U.S.Wind Energy Demand of Selected Materialsa Material Potential Future U.S.Wind Energy Demand for Selected Materials in 2050 Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.Wind Energy As a Percentage of U.S.Production in 2020(%)As a Percentage of Global Production in 2020(%)Current

320、Policies High Deployment Current Policies High Deployment Vulnerable Materials Nickel 97 1,600 1 11 Global production should be sufficient to satisfy future U.S.wind energy demand for nickel,but it could exceed domestic production levels(if production remains unchanged from 2020 levels)Expanding dom

321、estic production and diversifying imports for nickel could help secure domestic supply Increasing recycling of nickel,identifying alternatives for nickel in steel manufacturing,and identifying alternatives to steel in wind energy applications could help reduce material requirements Carbon fiber 9 44

322、0 3 120 Future wind energy demand for carbon fiber could exceed domestic and global production levels(if production remains unchanged from 2020 levels)It will be important for the United States to expand domestic production and diversify imports for carbon fiber Material substitution,recycling,and e

323、nd-of-life extension could help reduce wind energy material demand for carbon fiber Rare-earth elements Dysprosium:Neodymium:Praseodymium:3.0 3.8 0.2 75 91 34 0.49 0.61 0.03 12 15 5 Domestic and global production should be sufficient to satisfy future U.S.wind energy demand for rare-earth elements D

324、epending on competing uses,it may be important for the United States to expand domestic production and diversify imports of rare-earth elements Material substitution,technology substitution,and recycling could also help reduce wind energy material demand for rare-earth elements Electrical steel 5 94

325、 0.06 1 Global production should be sufficient to satisfy future U.S.wind energy demand for electrical steel,but it could approach domestic production levels(if production remains unchanged from 2020 levels)Material substitutions and recycling may not always be viable options for electrical steel Ex

326、panding domestic production and diversifying imports of electrical steel could help secure domestic supply Cobalt 3 45 0.01 0.2 Domestic and global production should be sufficient to satisfy future U.S.wind energy demand for cobalt Depending on competing uses,it may be important for the United State

327、s to expand domestic production and diversify imports of cobalt 42 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.Material Potential Future U.S.Wind Energy Demand for Selected Materials in 2050 Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.Wind

328、Energy As a Percentage of U.S.Production in 2020(%)As a Percentage of Global Production in 2020(%)Current Policies High Deployment Current Policies High Deployment Identifying alternatives for cobalt in steel manufacturing and alternatives to steel in wind energy applications could help reduce wind

329、energy material needs for cobalt Vulnerable Materials Aluminum 2 31 0.03 0.5 Domestic and global production should be sufficient to satisfy future U.S.wind energy demand for aluminum Depending on competing uses,it may be important for the United States to expand domestic production and diversify imp

330、orts of aluminum Increasing aluminum recycling and identifying alternatives in wind energy applications could help reduce wind energy material needs for aluminum Nonvulnerable Materials Balsa N/A N/A 14 520 Future U.S.wind energy demand for balsa could exceed global production levels(if production r

331、emains unchanged from 2020 levels)Material substitution and end-of-life extension could help reduce wind energy material demand for balsa Glass fiber 17 280 2 27 Global production should be sufficient to satisfy future U.S.wind energy demand for glass fiber,but it could exceed domestic production le

332、vels(if production remains unchanged from 2020 levels)Alternative blade designs,recycling methods,and end-of-life extension could help reduce wind energy material demand for glass fiber Copper 2 30 0.06 1 Domestic and global production should be sufficient to satisfy future U.S.wind energy demand fo

333、r copper Depending on competing uses,it may be important for the United States to expand domestic production and diversify imports of copper Increasing copper recycling and identifying alternatives in wind energy applications could help reduce wind energy material needs for copper a.The materials presented here were selected based on whether the potential future U.S.wind energy demand for them cou