戴德梁行：2023美国资本市场报告（中译版）（66页）.pdf

1、12Questions TodayMacroeconomy Are we going into recession?What will the depth and duration be?Will there be job losses?When?How should we think about the banking sector and its relation to CRE?CRE Capital Markets How far will property values fall?What about oncoming debt maturities?How much distress

2、 should we expect?When will deal volume pick up?Financial Markets When will the Fed pivot?Where will the 10-year Treasury yield settle?What does this mean for CRE yields?When will the debt markets unfreeze?3C&Ws Baseline Glide PathGlide path timeline for key indicatorsSource:Cushman&Wakefield Resear

3、chCapital Markets Transactions Gain MomentumGlide path timeline for key indicatorsCRE Credit Starts to Thaw and FlowMacroeconomic IndicatorFinancial Markets IndicatorCRE Fundamentals IndicatorCRE Debt Markets Indicator CRE Capital Markets Indicator 2023 Q3/Q42024 Q12024 Q22024 Q32024 Q4Property Valu

4、es Adjust 25-50%Peak-to-TroughCore Inflation Hovers At the 5%-Range Credit Tightening ContinuesExcess Savings DwindlesRECESSIONARY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD 2.5 Million Job Losses Hit Labor MarketCore Inflation Improves to 3%Fed Pivots and Starts Rate Cutting CycleConsumer,Business Confidence Gradually I

5、mproveCRE Demand Formation Slows Across OFC,IND,RET,MF SectorsWage Growth Starts CoolingCRE Supply Pipeline Subsides Amid Uncertain Environment and Constrained LendingConsumer Spending Eases 10Y Trends Towards 4.0%(High 3s%Thereafter)Values Start to Rebound 4Glide Path to Clearer Skies:Key Takeaways

6、 Inflation Remains Stubborn:Progress has been made on reigning in inflation,but key components remain sticky.The path to the Feds Target will take more time to achieve and will continue to strain credit conditions.This period of dislocation and challenge offers a critical opportunity to proactively