1、ContentsExecutive Summary.41 Methodology and Scope.61.1 Audience and analytical weighting.61.2 Geographic taxonomy.61.3 Data sources.71.4 Pair this study with an eFinancialModels template.71.5 AI-tools disclosure.82 The Industry Today.92.1 Capacity split utility vs distributed.92.2 Provincial distri
2、bution and grid taxonomy.102.3 Market structure post-ERAA.103 Supply-Side Analysis.113.1 REIPPPP Bid Window 6 and 7 pipeline funnel.113.2 Provincial capacity and grid-node bottlenecks.123.3 Capex composition for utility-scale solar.133.4 Top 7 developers by awarded MW.134 Demand-Side Analysis.154.1
3、Load-shedding as demand driver(2022 peak to 2025 normalisation).154.2 C&I behind-the-meter and the 71/17/12 self-gen split.164.3 Wheeling and bilateral corporate PPAs.174.4 Corporate off-taker map mining,retail,data centers.175 Pricing and Cost Dynamics.185.1 REIPPPP tariff trajectory BW1 to BW7.185
4、.2 LCOE vs Eskom new-build coal and Megaflex.195.3 Module-sourcing geopolitics.205.4 Wheeling tariff economics.206 Three Scenarios 2026 to 2031.216.1 Bear case(probability 25%).216.2 Base case(probability 50%).226.3 Bull case(probability 25%).227 Technology and Innovation Trends.237.1 BESIPPPP and s
5、olar+storage hybridisation.237.2 Localisation and South African manufacturing.247.3 Bifacial and tracker penetration.248 Regulatory and Policy Context.258.1 Electricity Regulation Amendment Act 38 of 2024.258.2 IRP 2025 11.27 GW solar by 2030.268.3 NERSA wheeling rules and Grid Capacity Allocation.2
6、68.4 Section 12BA sunset and the new C&I economics.278.5 JET-IP funding allocation and US withdrawal.279 Competitive Landscape.289.1 Top developers by operational+pipeline MW.289.2 Corporate-PPA off-taker map.299.3 Advisor and lender consortium map.2910 Best Practices and Innovation Benchmark.3010.1
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