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1、NOTICE This report was prepared for CTIA,in accordance with The Brattle Groups engagement terms,and is intended to be read and used as a whole and not in parts.The report reflects the analyses and opinions of the authors and does not necessarily reflect those of The Brattle Groups clients or other c

2、onsultants.The analyses and opinions reflect information available to the authors at the time of publication.Analysis of court opinions reflects the authors understanding of the respective opinions economic content and is not meant to constitute legal advice.There are no third-party beneficiaries wi

3、th respect to this report,and The Brattle Group does not accept any liability to any third party in respect of the contents of this report or any actions taken or decisions made as a consequence of the information set forth herein.We would like to thank Ryan Taylor,Shea Peretz,Megan Sullivan and Nat

4、alie Selfie for their contribution to this paper.How Much Licensed Spectrum is Needed to Meet Future Demands for Network Capacity?B|2 CONTENTS Executive Summary.3 Introduction.5 Demand for Capacity.7 Growth in Wireless Traffic.7 Mobile Traffic Composition.10 Traffic Offloading.12 The Supply Side Inp

5、uts.13 Spectrum Availability.13 Current Spectrum Inventory.13 Spectrum Used and Relative Effectiveness.16 Spectral Efficiency.19 Building Cell Sites.21 Absent Capacity from More Full-Powered,Licensed Spectrum Macro Networks Will Likely Be Constrained.24 Capacity Constraint and Spectrum Deficit if No

6、 New Spectrum is Made Available.24 The Effect of Demand Shock and New Spectrum Availability on Capacity Constraint and Spectrum Deficit.25 Conclusion.26 Appendices.28 Appendix A:Demand and Traffic Growth.28 Appendix B:Infrastructure.30 Appendix C:Calculating Spectrum Deficit Under Alternative Scenar